Westminstenders: A vote too far?

[RedToothBrush]

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

Robert Peston@Peston
...LibDem and Plaid Cymru want no/confidence vote now.
Corbyn scheduled to discuss with @NicolaSturgeon, I am told

< get off your arse, Corbyn and finally do your job as Leader of the Opposition >

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
DUP source: "This is an unbelievable situation. She's intending to bat for Britain? Who believes that after a week-and-a-half of her saying this was a good deal. It is beyond belief" 1/

DUP source: "She can't pretend she's dodged a bullet. Pulling the vote is an admission of abject failure, who has no credibility" Do the Conservatives need a new leader? "We're not getting involved in internal Tory battles [I think implication is yes]

DUP Source: "We warned her the Withdrawal Agreement should never have been signed. We warned her not to go down that route. She's reaping the rewards for her arrogance in pushing on with it anyway" 3/

Isobel why don't you think MPs would vote to revoke Art 50?
Only 50 or so want a cliff edge. The other 600 either want to Remain or take the time to renegotiate properly (which can be done either within or outside the EU - the Art 50 route didn't go so well last time)

I even think the right PM could sell David Cameron Mk2 and there's a few EU countries who would be happy to have us back and who have got into the habit of rejecting the Macron / Merkel / Brussels axis.

afaik, only the PM can revoke and the HoC can't legally force a PM to do so
They might even send her to the Tower (to be locked up, not beheaded)

but the only way to force a revoke is to vote No Confidence
and then a majority of MPs to support a new PM who will revoke.

Comes to something when I find myself agreeing with the DUP ...

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Another note from Cabinet:

Several ministers said the Government MUST ensure that it wins over the DUP next time - this is seen as absolutely critical.

They also said the PM must do more to 'bring MPs with us' this time - a tacit criticism of her failure to do so.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
^Er.... have you seen the reaction from #DUP sources on my timeline.......
She's "reaping the rewards for her arrogance in pushing deal" "we said the withdrawal agreement should never have been signed"^

Legally, the PM can revoke without needing even the HoC, let alone a PV

Okay, that makes a bit more sense. But as article 50 had parliamentary approval, wouldn't unilaterally revoking it cause serious repercussions? Surely the prime minister can't simply ignore the clearly expressed will of parliament? (FWIW I'm incredibly anti-brexit, so I'm trying to find sensible options out of the whole farce.)

{ It was a little better than two men and a dog but not by a very big margin.}
If the turnout was around 3000, then the French police arrested half that number in Paris at the weekend over their rioting.

Several ministers said the Government MUST ensure that it wins over the DUP next time

Presuming there is a "next time" ....

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
So Julian Smith told Cabinet conference call that there DID NOT Have to be a vote on delaying the Brexit vote.

He said vote could be delayed with a minister simply saying 'tomorrow', as the @nmdacosta has been pointing out.

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
So can the Government actually postpone the vote this afternoon?

Chief Whip sure he can do so by simply saying 'delay' this afternoon.

But others are increasingly concerned that John Bercow could try and force the Govt into holding vote.

Such is the level of mistrust...

Nikki da Costa @nmdacosta
But it is not simply the Whip saying “tomorrow”, its combining it with the respect of the PM coming to the House to explain, I expect, to say why the vote should be deferred, what she will do with that time, and maybe an indication of how quickly she will return. 1/

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
114

Fiona Bruce would like everyone to know she told the govt over the weekend she'd be voting against

And with that I think the list is done

114 Tory MPs against May's deal...

Arlene Foster @ DUPleader
Just finished a call with the Prime Minister. My message was clear. The backstop must go. Too much time has been wasted. Need a better deal. Disappointed it has taken so long for Prime Minister to listen.

Definitely a moot point Bigchoc and very likely to be superseded by events, but just to run it a bit further

The Council represents the "Union" and acts on ratification from the Parliament. UK representatives are not / have not been excluded in either of these wider spheres. Therefore following my argument leads to a narrow interpretation whereby the UK Council member is only excluded for the legal formality of accepting Art 50 and concluding the Exit agreement, not from all points in between.

To my mind, that would have been the more sensible approach and the one more in keeping with other Supranational organisations. Again at the heart of whether Lisbon has / sought to create the EU with a separate sovereign personality from its membership.

Sorry, I'm a bit slow in replying. Tbh, until today I honestly thought brexit was definitely going to happen so I'm trying to get my head round other options.

why don't you think MPs would vote to revoke Art 50?

I just can't see a sufficient number of MPs going against a referendum result. They voted for article 50 in the first place and not much has changed since then.

There is no enthusiasm whatsoever in the EU to have yet more Brexit negotiations if the UK Remains
(although Brexiters may save face by accepting revoke and claiming renegotiations can be done outside A50)

It would be feasible for the UK to regain the concessions that Cameron won, because the EU would probably like to be generous and let the UK retain a little bit of face after such a humilation.

Despite all the disgraceful insults by so many Tory Brexiters - sacking those remnants would help

However, if you think some members are disenchated with France and Germany,
you have no idea what a figure of ridicule the UK has become

Nobody wants to be associated with such godawful idiots
I avoid saying where I'm from in conferences & meetings now, because there is just an embarassed silence and stifled giggles.
The UK used to have such high prestige; not it's a worldwide laughing stock
(the giggles come from China & India too)

The chaos and humiliation the UK has suffered with Brexit has totally discredited the idea of anyone else leaving
The AfD no longer wants even to leave the Euro
France's FN too, I hear

What may continue is the natural development of inner and outer EU rings,
so the UK, the Nordic countries and even maybe Switzerland may form an outer ring, with no further integration,
but with no vote on the inner ring integrating further

Cameron refused this idea, as he wanted the Uk to always be at the "top table"
but it's time to drop this delusional arrogance and find a place which suits our aims & mmedium rank power.

James Patrick @j_amesp
So, here we are.

The EU reaffirm there’s no other deal. Parliament has outright rejected said deal.

May’s about to proceed with a statement. The Withdrawal Act opens absence of deal procedure with a statement.

Endgame. No deal or revocation.

Not there yet, but its headed in this direction

"between Sunday December 2 and Saturday December 8 the UK government spent £96,684 on 11 promotions on Facebook"

£100k pissed away on this farce....

£100k...

4 years work at the UKs average wage...

It's so embarrassing to be from this country.

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
How seriously is the DUP taking the PM's u-turn on the vote? Not very.

Sammy Wilson: 'She can try all the clever ruses she wants but without changing the withdrawal agreement it's meaningless.

'She is just showing her own incompetence. She has lost credibility'

So the leader of the DUP who is not an elected minister and is working against the majority vote in NI is 'threatening' Mrs May.
Why do I feel uncomfortable with this?

DUP source: "She can't pretend she's dodged a bullet

And they'd know all about that.

Could the DUP be trying to force remain. Without admitting it?

As far as Westminster 'evil geniuses' go, the DUP know the art of forces the political hand of others.

The problem is the UK happily signing all the things it thought other countries would have to put up with,
then suddenly being shocked to realise it's not special and is bound by them too.

So amateurish & embarassing
I'd rather the UK just crashed out with No Deal, than attempt to rewrite the Lisbon treaty.

Like the Luxemburg PM said some time ago:

"The UK spent all the time it was in, trying to get opt-outs and now it is leaving, spends all its time trying to get opt-ins"

If you want to Leave, just Leave and fuck off out

You feel uncomfortable about this because the DUP are a bunch of undemocratic flat earth creationist loons .

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
One well-connected source floats the possibility of a joint letter signed by the British and Irish governments to spell out what would constitute acceptable alternative arrangements to the backstop

A letter...

... Instead of the backstop. Which is just to ensure we adhere to the legal binding of the GFA...

"Democratic" is in the name, granted the same is true of the DPRK but the DUP were elected to Westminster whether anyone likes it or not. Not sure what their motive is here tbh and I think they are at risk of overplaying their hand, but calling them undemocratic isn't on IMO.

Remain is far better for the DUP than any Brexit
they are just too thick to realise - they were too desperate for the opportunity to trash the GFA

Any deal with the EU would have a backstop, in which NI is treated differently

A No Deal would have such disastrous consequences for NI that voters would soon choose a reunited Ireland.

In fact, the recent Lucid poll indicated that if there is No Deal Brexit, there would already be a majority in NI
... so the RoI had better get prepping !
(in fact, EU would certainly pump in funds to support an NI, which is hugely subsidised by rUK)

Steve Lawrence @ stevelawrence_
What happens to the Grieve amendment?

Ian Dunt @iandunt
Current understanding is that this survives. It's not an amendment to a bill, which would go down with the ship. It's House deciding how it does business, particularly in relation to Withdrawal Act and Standing Order 24B. It's political and has done what it is going to do.

Hmm I wish I had that confidence...