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Brexit

Westminstenders: A vote too far?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 09:16

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

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Thread gallery
18
RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:23

James Duddridge MP @JamesDuddridge
The PM does not get to pull a vote. The House will have to vote to pull a vote. I will oppose. We need to see this deal off once and for all.

Seymour strangely @ Seymourstrange
So - PM could lose the vote not to have a vote in case she loses that vote..?

WTF

James Duddridge MP @JamesDuddridge
You got it.

This is a Conservative MP.

Lots of omminous messages this afternoon...

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 14:24

Howabout A50 clearly states that the EU acts as a Union during negotiations, not as individual members:

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

2. "A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.
^ In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State,^
setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union
. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."

Of course it is 27 vs 1, because only 1 country is leaving.

Naturally this puts the leaving country at a disadvantage of size,
plus the fact that by default it is losing its trading relationship with the EU, its 40 FTAs with 60 other countries and 750 other trade agreements,
its membership of agencies for essential services like flights ...

However, a cacophony of 27 negotiating teams, each demanding their pound of flesh, would likely have left the Uk without e.g. Gibraltar, fishing rights, any other goodies the individual members want...
and probably 10 years further down the line.

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:25

Britain elects @ britain_elects
EU referendum voting intention (Leave w/ deal vs. Remain)

Remain: 47%
Leave (w/ deal): 29%

via @YouGov, 06 - 07 Dec

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RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:26

Laura Kuennsberg @bbclaurak
Govt whips apparently confident they can delay the vote - but it may be when the try that the 'house erupts' - according to one MP

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DGRossetti · 10/12/2018 14:27

EU diplomat tells me Robbins has been sent back to Brussels to seek a ‘legally binding’ commitment backstop will never be used.

Sounds like the "never claim car insurance" policy in Monty Python.

I wonder if plod would accept that if I was stopped.

"Well officer, I did have insurance. But then I realised I'd never claim. So I dropped it."

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:28

StefanieBolzen @stephaniebolzen
Talking to EU sources it makes you wonder what the PM's tactics is. If she had arrived to #EUCO after a crashing #Brexit deal defeat in the HoC her leverage on EU27 surely would have been stronger.

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 14:30

OhLook I expect the EU would "negotiate" in the sense of letting the UK change the Political Declaration in the WA,
so the final destination is e.g. a third pillar of the EEA

However, they won't reopen the 2 years negotiations.

The 3 prerequisites have been agreed and stay:
expat rights, exit bill, the NI backstop

Shows again the advantage for a little country like Ireland when its big brother EU does the negotiating,
instead of Ireland having to negotiate on its own and then being bullied,
as always used to happen before joining the then Common Market, now EU:

TheElementsSong · 10/12/2018 14:30

In almost 3 years of omnishambles, this is even more of an epic omnishambles.

And apparently we're the Great Nation that's going to bestride the globe being worshipped and feted with trade deals by awestruck foreigners Hmm

howabout · 10/12/2018 14:30

BigChoc that is my fundamental point. The UK is still a part of the "Union" and the EU right up until the conclusion of Art 50. Imho it is legally unsound for it to have been excluded from the Council in the way it has over the past 2 years.

The ECJ may well have just opened the floodgates to a whole lot more Lisbon Treaty challenges, not just on Art 50.

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:30

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
DUP sources: “we would prefer this to be brought to a head tomorrow”.

Uhoh...

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Peregrina · 10/12/2018 14:31

"The People will never forgive the Government if they are ignored".

The People who support Brexit had the chance at the weekend to get out to show this. I don't recall there being 700,000 of them. It was a little better than two men and a dog but not by a very big margin.

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:32

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Lot of anger in government that various ministers were sent out to insist the vote was going ahead while No10 knew this was not the case

I saw Gove was one of them saying until late this morning it was the case...

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 14:34

Howabout It is pretty clear in A50 point 4, that the UK can NOT participate:

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussionsof the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it."

The ECJ ruling was about something that hadn't been specified in A50.
What you want would reauie them to strike down an Article that all EU members had agreed and signed

Holidayshopping · 10/12/2018 14:34

What a massive mess!

Can TM just decide to delay the vote?!

FestiveForestieraNoel · 10/12/2018 14:35

Gin for all.

What a mess.

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:36

Arabella @ arabella_law
#AskTheCommons There's been a lot of talk this weekend about delaying Tuesday evening's vote, but very little on how that could be done. What if any procedures are still available for doing so, and when would they have to be invoked?

Official account saying this:

UK House of Commons @houseofcommons
Hi Arabella, The vote could be delayed in 1 of 3 ways.
1) A Minister could defer the motion when it is called at the start of business today or tomorrow.
2) The Govt could move a motion during the debate 'That the debate be now adjourned': this cld be debated & voted on. (1/2)
3) If these two options are unavailable, technically a Minister could 'talk out' the debate at 7pm on Tuesday. (2/2)

Omg. Does this mean the government could filibuster the vote?!!

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 14:37

"A legally binding commitment that the backstop will never be used ??!!"
😂😂
When is a backstop not a backstop ... when it is not legally binding !

The only commitment I can see that is compatible with a backstop not being meaningless,
is that instead of activating it, the UK could be allowed to continue in transition, on the same terms

DGRossetti · 10/12/2018 14:37

It's the end of days.

For some, at least I hope.

OlennasWimple · 10/12/2018 14:38

Yup - talk and talk and talk until the time runs out...

(Now that would be a nail in the coffin of democracy, even if our Parliamentary procedures make it totally legitimate practice)

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 14:38

Dan @ mamamia10012
#AskTheCommons if a minster where to theorectically try the third option. could any member move that the "question do now be put" on a point of order?

No reply (yet)

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IsobelKarev · 10/12/2018 14:40

I might be being stupid, but surely all of this simply makes a no-deal brexit more likely?

May can't get the deal through Parliament, MPs aren't realistically going to vote to revoke article 50 without a referendum or general election and there isn't enough time to hold a referendum or general election before 29th March.

If I understand the ECJ ruling correctly the UK does not need approval from the other 27 EU states to revoke article 50, but would need them to agree an extension. Why would they agree to that?

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 14:40

If A50 is revoked, would any PM be stupid enough to start a whole new clusterfuck of trying to Brexit ? 🤔🤦🏻‍♀️😂

6 months after revoking, finding a Brexiter will be like finding someone (British) who supported regime change in Iraq

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 14:41

Isobel Legally, the PM can revoke without needing even the HoC, let alone a PV
Politically, the disaster of No Deal would be even less survivable, imo

DGRossetti · 10/12/2018 14:42

I might be being stupid, but surely all of this simply makes a no-deal brexit more likely?

AIUI as things stand, Parliament could vote to rescind A50 and avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Or to put it another way (and a way I am sure a lot of people would see it) if we did enter a no-deal situation, it was entirely avoidable.

Peregrina · 10/12/2018 14:44

MPs aren't realistically going to vote to revoke article 50 without a referendum or general election and there isn't enough time to hold a referendum or general election before 29th March.

I thought that the EU would allow us a stay on the exit, if a GE was in the offing. After all, it could completely change 'the will of the people' especially if Labour changed its stance, so that people could no longer come out with the tosh that 80% supported parties who wanted Brexit.