Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: A vote too far?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 09:16

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 22:19

frumpety I presume time limit is until the govt decides it is no longer embarassing, or there is a new govt.
Legally binding, like all NDAs, with penalty clauses

  • and the penalty may be to be excluded from all future govt contracts, or even prison terms
wherearemychickens · 10/12/2018 22:20

I've just looked up the Gary Lineker vote on twitter - it's now at 79% 'back to the people' and 21% no deal.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 22:21

That ramp up is expected, red
The only surprise is that they didn't go all out prepping from the summer
Some EU firms will be left exposed to some extent

RedToothBrush · 10/12/2018 22:23

I think the option to go to the EU may become compulsory if this carries on. The choice being removed from us.

OP posts:
Alwaysbekind2014 · 10/12/2018 22:25

Can I ask what may seem a daft question what would actually make people happy ? Nothing

We don’t want a no Brexit .. we don’t want the Brexit on the cards but we don’t want a general election or a vote no confidence because we don’t want Corbyn and we don’t want anything to do with DUP ?

jasjas1973 · 10/12/2018 22:26

The Government has spelled out exactly what a no-deal means, so i don't believe they will allow this.

All these MP's & ministers will be looking at their majorities.

Coggle · 10/12/2018 22:27

The Leavers wanted cake and eat it / cherry-picking. Remainers wanted to remain. The former was never realistic. The latter is still available.

LouiseCollins28 · 10/12/2018 22:28

From a House of Commons point of view, stopping “No Deal” is really quite simple. MPs for whom “No Deal” is an undesirable (even unthinkable) outcome, have a simple means of avoiding it. They need only vote in favour of the deal on offer to achieve that.

MissMalice · 10/12/2018 22:37

They can’t vote if May won’t let them. And what of the cries of “no deal is better than a bad deal” for months on end. The vote is supposed to be a meaningful vote. At the moment, there’s nothing meaningful happening.

Arborea · 10/12/2018 22:44

About 10 minutes (or 20 pages) I think it was BigChocFrenzy who said
Remain is far better for the DUP than any Brexit they are just too thick to realise - they were too desperate for the opportunity to trash the GFA

I actually think that like Bozo and Gove, it was actually a huge miscalculation rather than stupidity. Each of them assumed that Leave wouldn't win, and thought that they'd be able to make more political mileage out of a near miss.

Rather like Donald Trump, who is also reaping the harvest of his hubris, only they're taking us down with them.

On a slight tangent, but I believe that most people who cheerfully say that they're happy with No Deal do so on the mistaken belief that something called a World Trade Organisation which has rules is going to equate to 'fair play' and has a nice sense of 'global', as opposed to 'globalism'. I may be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me if the search term 'what is the WTO' spiked on 30th March 2019...

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 22:44

Ciaran Jenkins@C4Ciaran

Approval ratings for next PM:

-18% Sajid Javid
-19% David Davis
-21% Dominic Raab
-23% Amber Rudd
-35% Boris Johnson
-45% Michael Gove

(Source: YouGov. Yes, they are all minuses.)

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 22:46

All^countries trade under WTO terms
BUT
NO country in the world trades only under WTO terms.

Arborea · 10/12/2018 22:49

StefanieBolzen @stephaniebolzen Talking to EU sources it makes you wonder what the PM's tactics is. If she had arrived to #EUCO after a crashing #Brexit deal defeat in the HoC her leverage on EU27 surely would have been stronger.

I reckon the tactics only make sense if you consider that TM is still in 'party first' rather than 'country first' mode. I believe that she couldn't countenance the idea of such a monumental pasting happening to a Conservative government so she's bottled it.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 22:53

Remainers want Remain, not a medium soft dogs Brexit

Those Leavers who don't want a No Deal
also don't want an NI backstop and many want Canada+

Currently they are all gambling on their favourite winning ...
but if this limbo continues too long, then the A50 default No Deal will automatically happen

For the hardcore ERG, maybe 50 MPs, No Deal is their favourite

SusanWalker · 10/12/2018 23:02

Conversation
Europe Elects
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
UK, YouGov poll:

European Union membership referendum

Scenario: Remain vs. No Deal

Remain: 57% (+5)
Leave: 43% (-5)

+/- November 2018

Fieldwork: 6-7 December 2018
Sample: N/A

1tisILeClerc · 10/12/2018 23:02

Why do I feel that a grovelly letter to Mr Macron (for me to stay in France) might be a good idea?
I suppose he is a bit busy at the moment though.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 23:07

May's really not stupid or ignorant - she warned before the 2016 ref pretty much what we were then warning:
NI border, JIT, EU trade, non-EU trade deals ...

She always puts her party first
It can help understand her actions all along once you realise this is her overwhelming priority, not the country or its people.

The party is continually flailing about, tearing at itself, so she keeps reacting day-to-day, to counter these outbreaks.

And of course she has to pander to the paranoid DUP
maybe not so paranoid, as they must realise that the Tories, as well as every party in the HoC, would deep six them at the first opportunity

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 23:10

susan After this exhibition of total disfunction, I'd hope Remain is riding high !
maybe the penny is finally dropping that the politicians don't know how to Brexit without serious harm to the country.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 23:10

hopefully, even better for polls to be conducted after today

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 10/12/2018 23:15

^After this exhibition of total disfunction, I'd hope Remain is riding high !
maybe the penny is finally dropping that the politicians don't know how to Brexit without serious harm to the country^

God I hope so. I think there’s loads of people who still just want to “get on with it”

They aren’t all that involved with Brexit, they still want Brexit but they been busy getting on with life - instead of watching the shit moving ever closer towards the fan.

I need to sort out my prepping. I’m in no way prepared for a no deal. Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 10/12/2018 23:22

May’s Brexit retreat exposes a zombie premiership

https://www.ft.com/content/3d747c26-fc60-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e

The inevitable conclusion is that we have entered a zombie premiership.
A confidence vote, a leadership challenge and the collapse of her EU exit deal are the only staging posts left on this road.

In her statement, however, Mrs May disclosed a bigger truth.
Unveiling her agreement last month, she said the only alternatives were “no deal or no Brexit”.

On Monday, Mrs May’s emphasis was strongly on the no Brexit outcome.
This was no oversight:
for the first time in this process, parliament’s Remainers believe they have the upper hand.

Her not very subliminal message to Brexit backers is that they are risking what they have worked so hard to secure.
...
The fight now is as much over what the referendum will ask.
Some, like Caroline Lucas of the Greens, say it should be a choice between Mrs May’s deal and remaining in the EU.
This risks allowing Leavers to depict it as a sham.

Others, including Tony Blair, see the danger of letting Mrs May’s compromise on to a ballot paper.
He instead proposes an all-or-nothing second vote with Remain and a hard Brexit as the only options.

This is Russian roulette with three bullets in the chamber
an extremely high risk to take when Leavers will be able to campaign with the slogan “Tell Them Again”.

Mrs May’s deal could be rescued by Labour pro-Europeans were she prepared to put it to the public.
But her own MPs will fight hard to stop her taking such a position even if she wished to.
Such a step would certainly trigger the long-threatened leadership challenge^
...
She can keep going for now, but the road ahead is fading fast.

OlennasWimple · 11/12/2018 01:42

The DUP surely cannot support anything that risks Jeremy "friend of the IRA, supporter of a unified Ireland" Corbyn in power? Shock

mathanxiety · 11/12/2018 03:59

To a certain extent, it doesn't really matter to the DUP who gets in.
Anyone who isn't completely with them - impossible unless you are actually one of them - is against them, in their eyes, and they even hold in suspicion those who depend completely on them and are therefore disposed to ask, 'How high?' when told by the DUP to jump (hence the £1billion bung to be dispersed by 'The PM' and not specifically Theresa May.) They are as ready to hate the Tories as Labour. Betrayal is the heart of their narrative.

Letting it be known that they would support a Labour censure motion makes sense as a shot across the bows of TM and the Tory party. It serves as a way for the DUP to keep the Tories focused on holding onto power, an invitation to them to set their infighting and feuding and the massive chasm among them aside enough to stay in government.

It also serves as a reminder that the only thing that matters to the DUP is the Union, and that they will fight to the point of destroying everything they hold dear and everything the Tories hold dear in order to ensure that the principle of the Union is maintained. This includes their own political support in NI, whom they are willing to beggar and alienate for the sake of doctrinal orthodoxy.

The DUP were initially a splinter group of Loyalist die hards with a siege mentality (see 'Siege of Derry') and that ethos remains.

borntobequiet · 11/12/2018 05:37

This - the debacle in the HOC and pulling the vote - is the Big Thing that has finally got us to the tipping point. A People’s Vote (if properly conducted) would from now on lead to Remain on about 60%, I think.

Quietrebel · 11/12/2018 06:08

Question is who has the will and authority to call a new ref?