Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

I don’t get it - if they’re so convinced that a solution will be found, why are they bothered about a backstop?

*MissMoon The Uk always retains the power to leave the CU and the backstop:
it just can't keep all the benefits

Same situation s now, really*

No, that's not right. The WA very specifically says that if/when the UK wants to withdraw from the backstop once the WA comes into effect, it needs to convince the "joint committee" that there will be no hard border in NI (hence no longer any need for a backstop). If the UK isn't happy with the answer, then it can take the dispute to an arbitration panel. The UK can therefore not unilaterally withdraw from the backstop, unless it has solved the hard border issue to the EU's satisfaction. This therefore binds the range of options available after Brexit, which is why many people are opposed to it. It's also arguably a worse position to be in than being in the EU, because we could always leave the EU via the A50 process.

jas After Brexit Day, whatever the deal, we would have no vote in the EU, even if we were to join EEA / EFTA

In practice, I expect the UK PM would be given the kind of input over decisions that the EFTA countries have, which is not via the EP, but mainly at heads of govt level.

Barnier is actually mainly trying to reassure May's Brexiter opponents by talking of this limited transition period.

So long as the UK is in transition, with everything working for the EU pretty much the same as now,
they don't mind if the UK spends 10 years there negotiating a good deal.

Trade deals usually take 7-15 years to negotiate - and that's when both sides know their own minds.

The EU is a past master at "stopping the clock" when it is in its interests
They have alway wanted a Norway++ deal (if Remain is not possible) and they hate No Deal

So, if the Uk / the negotiations need more time, it will be provided

If A50 is extended, the EU's 'Brexit bonus' will be a lot more than 37 billion. And let's not forget Labour's own crisis. Their ideal world is presumably (for the pro-Brexit leadership), some kind of minority government BEFORE a general election, otherwise they will have to face up to the majority of their membership AND Momentum insisting on a remain campaign.

missMoon a country can withdraw from any international treaty it wants.
It is NOT legally possible to stop this

BUT there are usually penalties:
in this case the UK would lose all the trade advantages

The UK could even have withdrawn from the EU without going through A50, but it would have been dumped out on its arse, with no trade, flights etc - i.e. No Deal

The UK CAN withdraw from the backstop unilterally, but if it does so, it loses all the benefits.

The adjudication committee is if the UK wishes to retain the benefits, in which case it must prove that what replaces the backstop is adequate

I like a laugh occasionally:
www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiters-told-to-try-walking-away-with-no-deal-in-everyday-life-and-see-how-that-works-for-them-20181121179706

missMoon a country can withdraw from any international treaty it wants. It is NOT legally possible to stop this

So you're now saying that we can always break our international treaty obligations? There would then be a tsunami of lawsuits against the UK government, not to mention we would never be trusted in negotiations again!

This is why the government went through the A50 route rather than consider simply breaking the treaties, despite many leavers suggesting otherwise.

Seriously, this isn't an option!

MissMoon SImilarly, the UK could just withdraw from the GFA - perfectly legal, just officially inform the RoI and the UN

However, the penalties there are that the UK would be heavily criticised internationally, especially by the EU and the USA, probably Canada, Australia etc

and would find it very much harder to get trade deals

A country can always withdraw from a treaty - that is NOT always breaking a treaty - or demand it be changed

Countries do this sometimes, especially the USA
I'm saying it would usually be a very bad idea, but it is quite legal.

Like with any business deal, either party can withdraw if they accept any resultant penalties.
it may make any new partners very wary, even damage a reputation, but noone gets locked up

It is not even clear who would have the right to sue in the case of withdrawing from the backstop

The UK can withdraw and end up with No Deal, just like now

In both cases, the EU would be mightily pissed with us and would probably not sign any trade deals until the backstop is put back.

It is a bad idea to tell Brexiters, or anyone else, that something they want to do is impossible, or illegal, unless it actually is.

Much better to tell the truth that it is a very bad idea with very serious consequences and list them

BCF yes agree but its supposition, we don't know, they'll be new people in the EU next year doing the negotiations, after their elections.

But this is exactly what i'm saying, we have no say whatever the WA deal, so no brexit is what we must strive for.

I'm hopefully (no more than that!) that leavers and remainers will stand up against May and call her bluff, if comes down to her legacy being the PM that wrecked the economy OR one that revoked art50/peoples vote, she ll choose one of the latter.

Off topic, but when I saw this, I snorted with disgusted laughter. On what planet would this be a suitable group of leaders? Talk about male, pale and stale. We really need a purge to get more representative politicians. (Maybe a state of chaos would lead to one?)
It’s no surprise that we are where with the politicians we’ve got.

Rwanda and Ethiopia have at least 50% female cabinet members. Labour can’t even manage that.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/africa/ethiopias-reformist-leader-inaugurates-new-cabinet-half-of-the-ministers-women/2018/10/16/b5002e7a-d127-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Rwanda

*we are where we are

Not that I really want a state of chaos, but I think we’re already in one. And it’s not going to get better quickly.

Rewatching Sam Willis' Invasion series and thoroughly enjoying the story of Perkin Warbeck, the imposter who claimed to be Richard, son of Edward IV. And how people, eager to turn back the clock to earlier times, willingly suspended their disbelief and flocked to support a dodgy charlatan.

Sounds oddly familiar.

I've lost track again. Last week's deal still appears to be wafting around in no man's land .

Although after two years of them fannying around I shouldn't be surprised.

Megletthesecond
The 'deal' is pretty close to what the EU is offering, bar a bit of polishing perhaps. There will be no significant rewrites.
Of course if the UK had come up with a similar document a year or two back, there could have been more negotiation but instead we had the Chuckle brothers (RIP) in charge. The UK had every chance to make a 'better' deal but at every point has managed (presumably deliberately) to balls things up.

Yup, after fannying around 2 years, we could still crash out without a WA, No Deal;
same result as if we had simply left the EU without ever going through A50

The EU would be majorly pissed:
all those valuable resources from their A -Team negotiaters tied up
all the time spent on Brexit in European Council meetings

.... and then we still crash out
lose-lose for everyone, especially the non-plutocrats in the UK

Election Data @election_data
Threadlet: Some interesting gender dynamics in the @YouGov polling. Two weeks ago Labour had a 6-pt lead over the Conservatives amongst women. Today's poll has the Conservatives with a 5-pt lead among women. But of course.....

it's just one poll. But there's another interesting part of today's poll. Men have deserted both main parties in this poll. The two main parties account for just 71% of men's voting intention, down from say 81% in January

So, one way of looking at this particular poll would be: Women swung behind May this week as they tend to value "getting on with it" and won't at all like the sight of angry men preventing her from doing so

Remember that Labour had a 9-pt lead amongst women as recently as July with YouGov (that July poll gave Labour a 5-point lead). Spikes in public opinion, like the one which seemed to get behind the PM this week are often noise. This one might well be too. I thought it noteworthy

nonetheless. And are we seeing something different for men? They don't seem to like compromise AT ALL and are moving away from both main parties? Or it's just noise.

As an aside, Owen Jones speaking out against TM's deal as he is on SkyNews now, makes me think there must be something pretty good about it.

Well, the ERG and UKIP sptitting feathers, along with the DUP, is a good sign
I would always worry if I found myself on the same side as them.

I still want Remain, no doubts
but the WA is miles better than No Deal - it protects us from the kind of thing the ERG want to do to us

.

Professor Franklin Dehousse, former Judge at the General Court of the European Union
appearing before the Brexit committee this morning:

after about 90 mins he was asked if EEA/EFTA/Norway++ could be negotiated during the WA transition.

He seems to think it could be

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/af6d2e53-d02d-4aa7-aca5-995d4f0175c0

You can tell when the more extreme Brexiters/Leave supporters are getting rattled - they start flooding the Brexit boards with either newly formed personas or name changing so that heir previous statements can't be used against them

They can be recognised by their repetition of long-and-frequently-refuted "arguments" and casual disregard for the impact of an economic crash on the poorest and most vulnerable in our society (if indeed they even acknowledge they exist ).

I suppose it is a compliment - and they provide a useful vehicle to be able to challenge some of the myths and fallacies. Not that they will ever be persuaded (if they're even real people and not just paid schills) - but as we know (because they periodically delurk) there are many lurkers who use these threads to inform themselves