What is ‘no deal’ Brexit?

[Talkstotrees]

Perhaps I have been burying my head in the sand. I have consistently dismissed the notion of ‘no deal’ actually happening as being totally ridiculous. No responsible government would allow such a catastrophe to happen on their watch. The unknowns are too great and the knowns are too damaging.

Now, it seems, I may have been too trusting - or perhaps not trusting enough, depending on who I listen to. My head is spinning a bit with it all and I’d welcome views on:

• is ‘no deal’ really an option? Surely Parliament will step in and halt/postpone Brexit if a way forward is not agreed.

• What would the consequences be of ‘no deal’? Can anything be done to mitigate?

I know this has been discussed many times in many threads, however I am becoming quite concerned and could do with hearing something positive (eg, either no deal Brexit won’t happen or if it does it won’t be awful).

Thanks

Blind Brexit sounds incredibly irresponsible too

The EU is a 'rules based' organisation. You do or say one thing, and there is a specific reply. The UK said it wants 'out' so in many way the patch is charted. It is mainly the issue of a 'tricky' border on the Island of Ireland that stops it be a relatively simple exercise. If it were between say Portugal and the EU, a border would go up and necessary customs personnel recruited.

Path is charted, don't type after wine!

Here's the thing. The beers deal we are able to get is being in the EU. Every other option is a shit deal which will see the UK in a recession.

Best not Beers. Although, beers is better!

DG12
Absolutely, however it has now shifted to WAS the best deal. Even if we 'stayed' on the same terms a massive wadge of money has been wasted by the UK and the EU (because of the UK decision) and any forward going deal MUST be worse by definition. The EU will not 'give' the UK a better 'deal' than any of it's members currently get.

@J_amesp

Hearing news that the Brexit police resilience team (it’s not good this even exists) is looking to take on over 50 officers as rapidly as possible. I’ll put more details out as they come in but only a few weeks back this was still just a rumour in the halls.

For clarity, this isn’t a rapid response unit or anything, it’s more like an emergency planning/policy unit.

Perspective:

To quell the 2011 riots by the fifth day, the Met had to actively deploy its full resilience of 32,000 officers.

National unrest would need the army too.

No deal means disaster, chaos, what the President of the National Farmers Union calls "Armageddon"

In WW2 the UK had several years to 'prepare' and were not initially totally involved, unlike many countries in mainland Europe. The UK says they had it 'bad' but were not subjugated like most of Europe.
The UK is not prepared now for something that is almost as far reaching in it's scope to cause mayhem and it is ENTIRELY the failing of the UK government.

Mrs May had options along the way. She, almost alone, has decided to take the Titanic (UK) and deliberately steer towards an iceberg.
Before, or even after calling A50 she could have had a proper review of the implications, both to industry and the issue with NI border and call it off.

My theory (since before the referendum even happened) was that the result would be leave, that MPs would lead us down the worst possible path, the UK economy would tank, the UK would become a war zone and that all the rich powerful people would bugger off to another country (mainly the US) to watch the UK implode on CCTV. Reality TV but with more blood and guts. Evil rich people feed on misery and despair.

It all seems to be going according to plan so far.

Don't forget to keep repeating the mantra "It was the poor people who voted for this, they are to blame".

You’re not helping

I meant you’re not helping me to manage my level of concern

People seem quite unable to grasp what is meant by "rules". What would happen after No Deal is known (by the EU at least - our own government seems oblivious) because the EU has rules for dealing with third countries and that is what they will apply.

There seems this assumption from some that the EU will just chuck all these rules in the bin so that goods will flow much as usual. Of course they won't!! Quite apart from the fact that the way our politicians and media have treated them over the last two years will mean they quite enjoy watching us reap the consequences of our own stupidity, the other countries they trade with will object to the UK getting special treatment.

Talkstotrees, you might want to checkout an article from bloomberg.com called " Venezuela's Meltdown Creates a Nation of Desperate Capitalists ". If food and medicine are going to be given top priority over all other goods, then there is likely to be an acute shortage of pretty much everything else. The article is not quite as negative as it sounds.

Knowing how to repair cell phones, tablets, laptops, shoes, clothing, refrigerators, washing machines, tires, etc., any and all things that may not simply be available or too costly will probably become a growing business after Brexit.

While you probably could not become say a full-fledged cobbler ( shoe repairer ) in five months time, you might be able to get a part-time job with one or else become a volunteer a few hours a week to begin to learn the business. With a shortage of shoes and business greatly picking up the cobbler may decide to hire you to either full or part-time status.

Learning or knowing how to make something like gloves, coats, quilts, etc things which may not be available for some time might be useful as well, even if they are just very basic.

I highly recommend the book " King Rat " by James Clavell. There is some very useful information about how British and American POW's managed to survive on a meager diet under Japanese occupation during WW2.

If you read the book, you will see the importance of eggs to prevent blindness and the importance of the unit. The unit was usually composed of 2 to 4 individuals who would share what additional food they could find, say a banana or a coconut. Why share? A person needs a certain amount of nutrients to stay reasonably healthy but they don't need an excessive amount. Sharing helped ensure at least a minimal amount of proper nutrition among members of the unit.

I doubt any of this is going to help lift you up but perhaps it will be useful in some way.

I am not convinced on the UK's ability to negotiate all these trade deals when we are no longer members of the EU. They have been struggling for over two years to negotiate a withdrawal agreement, they haven't even touched on trade yet.

Just out of interest how long does the average trade deal take ?

Assuming other WTO members agree to overlook this and transfer existing rights to Britain without seeking to unpick unpopular elements, there is an even bigger problem. This relates to the import and export quotas shared among EU member states. In the case of lamb, for example, the WTO schedule permits 283,825 tonnes of sheep and goat meat to be imported duty-free into the EU from 14 countries, ranging down to just 100 tonnes from Greenland.
British farmers would need to fight to secure their share of this existing schedule to export into EU and non-EU markets, a fiendishly complicated prospect just in one small agricultural category.

Farmageddon ^^

^^They reckon around 3 years for the first easiest trade deal, 8 years for a trade deal with the EU then 10 + for the rest. Problem is we'd need hundreds of trained negotiators working around the clock which we don't have so realistically you're talking decades.

The Norway deal is the best we can hope for if Brexit goes ahead. This leaves us as a vassal state with no decision making, large budget contributions, FOM, and still no solution to NI.....i.e. a bit shit
But harder versions of brexit e.g. Canada, Turkey etc just get shitter as tariffs are introduced and the end to JIT manufacturing, crop farming, etc. To make this up with free trade deals with other countries is a deceitful lie to benefit those who would benefit from retaining the offshore tax haven status of overseas British territories and disaster capitalists who will buy up all the repossessed properties and swathes of uneconomical farmland.
But the dire consequences of no deal are truly horrific. The port of Dover comes to a standstill within 36 hours. Any JIT manufacturing factory becomes redundant overnight (Honda, Toyota, Jaguar, Nissan have already said this), cross border insurances are effectively ended making flights etc too risky to operate. 760 + agreements with the WTO are redundant and we are then over a barrel negotiating trade deals with the likes of Trump and his trade warrior administration. We have to renegotiate WTO and any member can veto us) If you think the US will help out little old Britain with a good deal, you are deluded....oh and medicines and foodstuffs cannot get in either so people will likely die or be reduced to queuing for anything that's left on supermarket shelves leading to civil disorder, rioting, looting etc within 5-7 days, nb.this is not project fear, this is what the government impact assessments say (although they wont publish them..but ask your MP) ....that we are even contemplating no deal is shameful in a civilised society

The immediate issue is not trade deals but borders and logistics. There is no space at the main border points for trucks to wait. The government is already making plans to turn over motorways to holding areas for trucks around Dover.

The other serious problem is freight as UK hauliers will not have the right to drive in the EC without a permit. The government is advising hauliers to apply early for a permit, but there are only about 2000 available and demand is estimated to be about 80,000.

Trucks need to travel with a full load in both directions to be cost effective. If there are difficulties at borders and with UK exports then the supply chain will be very slow & expensive. Expect stock shortages and higher prices.

We are already talking to our EU suppliers about stock piling in March and to our logistics partners about finding extra warehousing. It’s going to be hugely expensive and many businesses just won’t be able to cover the cash flow.

If you want to know what No Deal would look like then just read the government’s own Preparedness Notices which have been published over the last few months. They are extremely worrying.

Even an extension of the transition period is in itself a deal that needs to be agreed by both sides.
The withdrawal agreement itself needs a supermajority in the Council of Europe and ratification in the European Parliament as well as passing Westminister. These processes take time.

Tick tock.

Am I right in thinking, though, that we haven't left yet and so in theory we can withdraw Article 50, say we've changed our minds and just keep the very good deal we already have?

In a People's Vote scenario then, we can have whatever bad deal the Maybot cobbles together (or disastrous no deal) versus just calling the whole thing off? I've always held out a sneaking hope Brexit might not happen and it's getting stronger the last month or so.

I wondered about withdrawing Article 50 too. Yeah the UK would look a bit silly, but better silly than stupid surely ?

I think the Council of Europe would also have to agree to the withdrawal of Art 50. They probably would but the bigger issue is time. A extension would probably be needed to allow for an agreement to be reached and then a vote held.

While in theory it is possible to rescind A50 there would be a few matters to clear up. (Understatement!)
The EU has been forced to shell out a few billion to make preparations, who is going to pay for that? This would be on top of the £25 Billion or thereabouts that is paying for existing membership.
The UK is very divided on EU membership, possibly a bit less than at the time of the 'massaged' vote, but bearing in mind the UK has been whining about opt outs and 'special snowflake' deals rather than really getting behind the EU project almost since the UK joined, there is possibly not much enthusiasm about the UK remaining in. This is of course a tragedy for both UK and EU, as particularly with science and technology cooperation/collaboration have achieved great things. It is politicians against science, technology and manufacture.

So not undoable then ?