Westministenders: Reality Bytes

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight the Corbyn and McDonnell Labour Party supported the Tory Party in improving the tax allowance for higher rate tax payers.

Yes you read that right. Did you even blink?

You've been so conditioned into seeing non existant opposition which seems to go against everything the Labour Party stand for that you no longer are shocked.

That's what 2 and a half years of Brexit has done to you.

You no longer care that Boris Johnson got £14,000 from the Saudis a couple of days before the Khashoggi murder. You know longer care that the former Defence Secretary is employed for £75,000 a year to advise a major Saudi Investor.

You are just happy that Trump hasn't started a war with Iran or North Korea yet. And hasn't started a civil war. (Though he's trying hard and next week is his best opportunity to stir it all up). You aren't surprised to hear that predictions are that the Democrats will fail to make gains in the mid terms.

You've suffered the 4657 story about how Therea May is just about to be challenged for the leadership.

You've heard about the squad set up at the Home Office to clear up all the cases the media get their hands on as the latest burning injustice. You are hearing that EU nationals who have been promised they are 'safe' are being subjected to questions about their right to stay. And you just shrug and say, "Yeah well thats the Home Office for you. The Bastards". And you do mean it, but you are so jaded by it all. And you worry that another 12 months from now, you won't even be interested in another story like that, and the press will stop printing them as they no longer interest the reader. What happens to your friends, your family, or even you then? Who is going to care then?

And then you have today.

A day where you hear that Bannon is being investigated by the Senate Intel Committee, Farage has been upgraded to the FBI's Really Naughty List and Banks has (FINALLY) been refered to the NCA. (We were only speculating on the possibility, on the 26th March...)

And you go 'Ooooooooo maybe there is hope'.

Maybe we COULD remain in the EU and avoid Turnip Soup and wiping your arse with leaves because of the national bog roll shortage. Or at least get a decent deal which suits us as a nation. Maybe, just maybe!

And that lasts for about 2 minutes before you log into twitter and the very first thing you see this:

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: David Cameron tells friends he’d like a return to frontline politics, and fancies Foreign Secretary
www.thesun.co.uk/news/7639377/david-cameron-return-to-politics/

And you let out a high pitched screech as if you are were a dying cat as you remember this is 2018, and it just wants to beat the life out of you.

On the plus side, it shows you do still care enough to think 'Don't let that fucking bastard anywhere near power ever, ever again.'.

Ho hum.

Keep on, keeping on. Don't let the bastards win.
Keep caring. It matters.

Big Choc I've always thought May will try and stick something in at the very last second that can not be objected to because of time. What that is, or who will like it least I don't know. Its typical May. She's done it multiple times in the past.

Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe
Just so you're all prepared for it, the Northern Irish segment of the withdrawal agreement, when published, will probably be borderline incomprehensible.

Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
Very much worth carefully reading May’s leaked letter to the DUP in this top @SamCoatesTimes scoop
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9023b660-e39e-11e8-9838-efa7e96cbe2b
No-deal and the Irish border: extracts from the leaked letter

Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
If you cut through the semantics and May’s typical obfuscation, and read it alongside how the EU described the backstop and “backstop to the backstop” to EU27 last week (www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-eu-says-answers-from-the-uk-on-these-crucial-brexit), this is what I think it means, a short thread:

May is, in short, prepared to accept the EU backstop - a bare bones UK-wide customs union and a Northern Ireland only backstop to the backstop (a customs union doesn’t remove the need for all checks) - and she is trying to sell this idea to the DUP

May says in the letter that a backstop would only be temporary as it’s defined by article 50 / withdrawal agreement. Technically this can be true: it wouldn’t last forever, but only until and unless there is another solution in place

Worth also reading N10 comment to @SamCoatesTimes news story - Downing Street specifically talks about customs territories.

DUP @duponline
1/2 1st November 2018 letter from Arlene Foster @DUPleader & Nigel @NigelDoddsDUP to the Prime Minister. "Unlike the previous political declarations, the scope for delay, fudge or obscurantist language has passed. This is now a time for clarity and plain speaking."
2/2 1st November 2018 letter from Arlene Foster @DUPleader & Nigel @NigelDoddsDUP to the Prime Minister. "It is vital for both NI & the entire UK that if agreement is reached, it must be clear and must not risk opening divergence within the UK for generations to come."

Letter itself can be found on the link below
twitter.com/duponline/status/1060792032770379781

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Page 4 is the killer - DUP adding a specified date to end the backstop to no further regulatory divergence at all as their red lines. It appears May is about to lose 10 MPs.
How also will Scots Tory MPs react?

www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/arrests-of-journalists-queried-as-ombudsman-denies-reporting-theft-of-documents-1.3690026#.W-QSpS0u04M.twitter
Arrests of journalists queried as ombudsman denies reporting theft of documents
Loughinisland documentary-makers were held on suspicion of stealing confidential files

Two Belfast journalists were arrested in August on suspicion of the theft of confidential documents from the Police Ombudsman of Northern Ireland’s office, even though the ombudsman never reported a theft, it now emerges.

Barry McCaffrey and Trevor Birney of Fine Point Films were part of the team that produced No Stone Unturned, a documentary film by US director Alex Gibney.

It investigated the police investigation into the massacre of six men by loyalist paramilitaries in a pub in Loughinisland, Co Down, in 1994.

Simon Coveney urged to raise issue of journalists’ arrests with London
Why were two journalists investigating Loughinisland arrested?
Loughinisland: Journalists released after being held in documents inquiry

Red I've always hoped May's plan is to bring the WA into the HoC at the last possible moment, when no time for anything else but a crash-out Brexit
and bet that the HoC won't want to be responsible for the disaster after No Deal

However, I'm not sure if she has the judgement or the courage to bring it off ... or the power not to be toppled by the Ultras as soon as she starts this process

BigChoc, I fear that leaks will prevent her ability to do that.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/arlene-foster-says-may-is-wedded-to-idea-of-irish-sea-border-1.3691931?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Farlene-foster-says-may-is-wedded-to-idea-of-irish-sea-border-1.3691931

DUP leader Arlene Fosterr* has said Theresa Mayy* appears “wedded to the idea of a border down the Irish Sea”
despite Downing Street’s assurances to the contrary.

< let's hope she is wedded to that ! It's the least disastrous solution >

What gave me false hope about May is that before the referendum she seemed to grasp the consequences of Brexit to trade, at least.

Unfortunately, entering No. 10 appears to have performed a brain wipe

Another UK City firm losing business: the Irish stock exchange !

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/owner-of-stock-exchange-wants-move-to-brussels-after-brexit-1.3691943

Euronext NV, the owner of the Republic’s stock exchange, favours moving the settlement of Irish shares to Brussels after Brexit, according to briefings to industry.

The Republic – the only European Union member without its own central securities depository – has relied on a UK-based firm called Crestt^ to settle trades since the 1990s and the dawn of electronic financial markets.

Once the UK leaves Europe’s single market, and after the accompanying loss of financial passporting rights, Crest probably won’t be able to continue providing that service, Euroclear, the giant CSD that runs Crest, has said.

While Irish securities and exchange-traded funds are settled in Crest, Irish Government bonds are settled at Euroclear Bank in Brussels.
Euroclear Bank plans to base the future stock-settlement arrangements on that existing operation, according to briefings to industry representatives in Dublin and the UK last month.

Well, I've just written an actual letter on paper with a real pen to the PM and yet another email to my MP. He is one of the EFTA for now crowd and thinks that the mythical future trade deals are sufficient reason to stay out of the customs union. But apparently he is working flat out behind the scenes to make sure that there is a deal that protects SMEs like me, and is representing local concerns to ministers at all opportunities. So that's all right then! [facepalm]

BigChoc I felt the same - at least she seemed to see how damaging it could be. However, that was before we knew she blocked the investigation into Aaron Banks as Home Secretary. I now suspect she has fingers (or her hubby does at least) in some rather less savoury pies.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46127592
Brexit stockpiling: No room at food warehouse in Cardiff

Arlene Foster @DUPleader
The PM’s letter raises alarm bells for those who value the integrity of our precious union & for those who want a proper Brexit for the whole UK. From her letter, it appears the PM is wedded to the idea of a border down the Irish Sea with NI in the EU SM regulatory regime.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam

DUP complaint threefold;
1. Customs border for GB-NI in Withdrawal Agreement, and not content with PM’s assurance will never need to be used
But ALSO even in UK version backstop
2. wider GB-NI regulatory checks, as currently seen for eg cattle in Larne
3. Not “proper Brexit"

I don't think I'm stupid, but that convoluted letter from Theresa May, made my head hurt!

Re Welsh stockpiling.
Cakes and desserts, 11,000 pallets. Not exactly a healthy diet surely?

The reality is, May has to choose between

1. weakening the unity of the UK

• well the last 8 years of Tory govt have done that anyway -

2. or causing an economic crash which will tear the UK apart, probably more quickly and with more bitterness

3. or accepting Norway++, keeping the UK together and avoiding most of the Brexit economic damage
   ...... but tearing apart the Tory party

Number 3) is of course best for the country, but she has shown she puts party first

[paywall] Reminder From Ireland

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/brexit-is-teaching-britain-its-true-place-in-the-world-1.3688454
...
Humiliation is too strong; a national humbling is more accurate.

The philosophy of Brexit was that, freed of EU constraints,
the UK would take its rightful place in the world.
This is indeed what is happening, but alas that place is not as the great power of their imagination.

The UK’s place in the world is hardly terrible but, as Johnson learned during his brief but undistinguished term as foreign secretary,
our emissaries no longer bestride summits like Castlereagh.

For far too long British politicians, journalists and voters have enjoyed a patently distorted vision of the nation as indispensable world player.

Now the nation is facing the painful truth that the UK is not as pre-eminent as it has liked to believe.
< much of it still refuse to face this >

For proof, look at the negotiations over the Irish border.

One need not get into the rights and wrongs to see that the UK has essentially been pushed around by Ireland,
because the EU has thrown its weight behind the demands of its continuing member.

The hard fact is that the power imbalance has meant the UK is being forced to choose
between the chaos of a no-deal Brexit
or undermining the constitutional integrity of one of its four sovereign parts and signing up to a significant amount of rule-taking.

This is what happens when a single country that is not America or China negotiates with a global trading bloc.

From the sequencing of the negotiations to the empty scorecard of British wins,
the entire process has been a lesson in power politics.

Few who saw the TV programme on the United States’ London embassy will forget the smirks as an American official described the British Brexit delusions:
“They sort of see it as a negotiation between two equal parties.”

One should not overstate this
...
The UK will still get its call ....
Life in the top 10 is different from life in the top three.

Customs in the Irish sea makes sense. The time taken for ships to traverse it would allow customs checking for a majority of the goods.
There are different regulations all across the EU with VAT and other taxes dependent on country.
There are different regulations in other areas between the various parts of the UK already, so why is it such a ridiculous idea? Differing laws in Scotland and NI already and to a lesser extent in Wales.

Cakes and desserts, 11,000 pallets. Not exactly a healthy diet surely?

I think the issue (if there is one) is that there's a general lack of excess capacity in the industry because of 'stockpiling' and that's having a general knock-on effect.

If 'Mega-Company A' has all it's facilities tied up storing butter and chicken on a six month basis for its largest client then its smaller (and less-important) occasional clients have to make other arrangements, so their cakes, desserts and mozzarella sticks are filling up the facilities of smaller companies.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. But reason DUP are worried is it implies May is poised to accept an arrangement that would tie NI more closely to the EU than GB - backed up by Cabinet source who told me No 10 solution inc arrangement like 'customs partnership' for GB and 'customs union' for NI
2. This is NOT what No 10 is saying right now - they say PM would never accept arrangements that hive off NI and negotiations still ongoing
3. But the letter raises the possibility of 'specific alignment solutions' for NI - so potentially different regimes on the two sides of the Irish Sea - that's why DUP are so cross - remember PM needs their votes desperately
4. If it's enrage the DUP or lose the chance of the withdrawal deal - what does the PM do? Recent conversations with senior sources suggest it might be the former - (and increasing checks have been on table for ages) but high, high stakes

mother It is an emergency
If the govt really won't accept Norway++
then the Irish sea border is the only way to avoid economic catastrophe that will affect all the countries in the UK

If hurt pride pushes Scotland to vote to leave, I'll be sorry, but I'd choose that over all 4 countries going over the cliff

• which imo would cause the UK to split up anyway

Whatever the Scots feel, NI is a totally different case, because it should never have been created as it was, by brute force & threats of worse
Britain is in this situation now because of a past colonial crime that won't go away

Scotland entered the UK voluntarily, has not had a recent bloody civil war, is not subject to an international treaty with a foreign country, to which nearly half the population feel they belong.