Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 18:12

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
31
BigChocFrenzy · 29/10/2018 16:12

The UK has managed to “roll over”only 14 of the 236 international treaties that the EU has signed with countries around the world,
raising fresh concern of disruption if Britain crashes out the bloc without a deal.

Well, that's an improvement on 0.

However, as well as the 236 trade deals the UK needs to rollover,
there are 500+ other arrangements about standards, certifications etc which may need to be handled separately

(FT paywall)
https://www.ft.com/content/e1cd9afe-dad8-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b

With just five months to go to Brexit, the UK is under mounting pressure to replicate agreements that the EU has with 168 countries,
so that Britain can retain rights that it currently has with these nations as a result of being a member of the bloc.

Last week, Whitehall officials were given data showing that only a fraction of the 236 treaties that the EU has with countries outside the bloc have been successfully copied by the UK into new mini-arrangements with the relevant nations.

Britain needs to roll over about 40 free trade agreements that the EU has
with countries including Canada, Japan, South Korea and Mexico.

The 236 treaties also cover important agreements well beyond trade - relating to airlines’ take-off and landing rights at overseas airports, as well as industries such as financial services, fisheries and nuclear.

If the UK finalises a withdrawal deal with the EU, including a transition period beyond March 2019, it should give Britain more time to roll over the treaties.

However, the issue of what would happen if no deal is reached was discussed by heads of Whitehall departments on Wednesday last week.

According to people briefed on the meeting, the discussion on international treaties was “sobering” as permanent secretaries confronted the reality that many efforts to replicate the treaties were still incomplete.
....
The lack of progress in rolling over all 236 treaties is the latest indication of how the government is struggling with its no-deal planning.
Downing Street said: “We are working closely with partners to replace the agreements in the event of no deal.”

Last week, the National Audit Office, parliament’s spending watchdog, reported that
10 out of 12 projects required to guarantee a fully functioning UK border in the event of a no-deal Brexit were at risk of not being delivered on time.

Chris Grayling, transport secretary, told the cabinet last week that Britain could be obliged to charter ships to guarantee the supply of food and medicines
should the country crash out of the EU without a deal.
...
“There’s a sense of frustration from the officials out in Brussels that they are getting all of the political heat,
while their colleagues back in London are dragging their feet,” said one person briefed on the meeting.

Britain’s difficulties in getting the 236 treaties rolled over are likely to arise for a number of reasons, according to one legal expert.

“Other countries may see Brexit as an opportunity to reopen these [treaties], to get more out of the UK, rather than just roll over the existing agreements,”
said this person.

“They may have their own time-consuming domestic ratification processes.
Agreement on how these treaties apply to the UK may also depend on what the UK’s future relationship with the EU looks like.”

DGRossetti · 29/10/2018 16:22

Wasn't the UK barred from negotiating trade deals until the WA was agreed ?

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 29/10/2018 16:39

According to people briefed on the meeting, the discussion on international treaties was “sobering” as permanent secretaries confronted the reality that many efforts to replicate the treaties were still incomplete.

They’re just confronting that now?

Mrsr8 · 29/10/2018 16:40

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Peregrina · 29/10/2018 16:40

I thought it was more a question of not being able to sign Trade deals until there was a WA. There shouldn't be any harm in putting out feelers and being ready to go on the due date. But given the shambolic nature of the negotiations so far, I can't see that happening.

So far the tangible achievements are blue passports, a festival of Brexit ( I suspect that might get dropped), and I don't know if he's announced it yet, but a special brexit 50p worth 25p.

Aviation - nada, medication & food - zilch, and on and on.

DGRossetti · 29/10/2018 16:42

Given the renewed disappearance of the £5 note, maybe a Brexit Fiver would have been a better idea ? At least it's blue.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/10/2018 16:48

DG The idea was to negotiate, but only to sign for the deals to activate after Brexit Day
That's within EU and international law

prettybird · 29/10/2018 16:50

I suspect that the 14 treaties/trade agreements that have been "agreed" can be rolled over are the 14 treaties/trade agreements where the relevant country has agreed in principle that the it can be rolled over. Hmm

Nothing will have actually been signed yet because of course that would be illegal Wink - so who knows if they will actually follow through on that commitment once they realised just how desperate "distressed" the UK is Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 29/10/2018 16:54

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/no-deal-brexit-uk-eu-flights-chris-grayling-transport-secretary-disruption-unlikely-grounded-a8606616.html

Last week it was revealed by Department for Transport (DfT) officials that talks with Europe on aviation links have not begun.

Chris Grayling told the Airport Operators Association (AOA) annual conference:
“It is theoretically possible that EASA [the European Aviation Safety Agency] could refuse or delay the certification of UK-certified planes.

That is what could cause disruption.
“I think it is highly unlikely.”

At the same event in 2017, Mr Grayling said it was “inconceivable” that flights would be grounded.

< Inconceivable ==> unlikely ==> Oh shit, now what happens >

DGRossetti · 29/10/2018 16:55

It would be richly ironic if the UK were to become victim to a "bait'n'switch" scam, wouldn't it ?

After all, as we should all know by now, nothing is agreed until it's agreed.

So it's entirely possible that these 14 agreements if they exist could simply vanish in a puff of "so, sorry, we made a mistake" as the price changes.

After all, what is the UK going to do ? Make a big stink internationally and itself an even bigger laughing stock ?

Hazardswan · 29/10/2018 17:04

I'm confused about Hammond and the budget, I read today that the budget was dead in the event on no deal then I read later in the day that it's okay because they've already allocated funds to do the pothole repairs already so I'm Confused

DGRossetti · 29/10/2018 17:10

At the same event in 2017, Mr Grayling said it was “inconceivable” that flights would be grounded.

That really depends on who's doing the conceiving, really.

Mrsr8 · 29/10/2018 17:22

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 29/10/2018 18:10

Just noticed this on my Facebook feed. Well put.

Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis
Motheroffourdragons · 29/10/2018 18:12

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/10/2018 18:13

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/10/2018 18:15

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

bellinisurge · 29/10/2018 18:34

I agree @Motheroffourdragons

KennDodd · 29/10/2018 19:02

Maybe somebody more knowledgeable can answer a question. If we have a no deal Brexit, then to abide with WTO rules we need a hard border, what happens if we just don't install one? Other countries object and take us to a WTO court? If we do put up a hard border we will have breached an international peace treaty? This will 100% be our fault and not Ireland as they won't have breached the GFA by voting for Brexit. If the GFA was brokered by the U.N. (was it?) would we then face consequences with the U.N. for breaking that?

bellinisurge · 29/10/2018 19:10

If we don't follow a basic WTO requirement of a border or equivalent arrangement, we are going to struggle to make bilateral deals. We can't be trusted.

WorriedMutha · 29/10/2018 19:24

You are absolutely right Ken Dodd. I find it mind boggling that serious media is not pursuing politicians on these very credible concerns. They are constantly allowed to repeat their mantras 'confident we will get a good deal, not discussing hypotheticals, delivering brexit, will of the people, yada yada'. Dumbed down for modern Britain.

MyBrexitIsIll · 29/10/2018 19:35

www.independent.co.uk/voices/philip-hammond-budget-2018-statement-conservative-tax-allowances-election-tories-labour-a8606741.html

So basically the budget is there to try and win the MC voters who will be ever so happy to have gained maybe £100 a year from the budget....

Hammond’s budget is pitched straight at Middle England – and it could just see the Tories win the next election
Thanks to ‘feel good Phil’, they will feel the benefit of higher tax allowances and the freezing of fuel duty. The upshot? The squeezed middle – or whatever other tribal epithet is used to describe them – will be that little bit more likely to put an X by the name of a Tory candidate

And at the same time,
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/autumn-budget-2018-chancellor-philip-hammond-brexit-business-reaction-economic-forecasts-universal-a8607596.html

Dreaming Phil's tepid budget will be wrecked by a no deal Brexit, and he knows it
The Chancellor admitted we could be back here again in April, and we will be if the no deal maniacs get their way

So basically, it’s not worth the paper is written on.

Are the squeezed MC really going to remember how great the budget was when we crash out??

Peregrina · 29/10/2018 19:55

So basically the budget is there to try and win the MC voters who will be ever so happy to have gained maybe £100 a year from the budget....

I am not sure that we will. We have children and grandchildren that we can see struggling to get on the housing ladder, or get decent school places, in schools where the finance has been cut to the bone, and the curriculum has become worthy of Gradgrind. We also see the cuts to the NHS and care homes, which affects mainly our elderly relatives.

Don't forget last Saturdays 700,000 was supposedly Middle England - we will want more than £100.

frankiestein401 · 29/10/2018 20:12

am 40% taxpayer - what possible excuse is there for increasing the 40% threshold every time the 20% gets increased? Means i get a double benefit.
more importantly why does that question never get asked by the opposition or media?

BigChocFrenzy · 29/10/2018 20:17

Hammond seems to be assuming for that budget that he'll have a lot of extra money:

He's hinting at tax cuts
AND
£20bn for the NHS, extra £x billion to ease the UC rollout

Meanwhile, Brexit-related issues have already reduced the UK's growth compared to pre-ref, so the economy is iirc £20 bn smaller than it would otherwise be

Have the Tories found a Magic Money Tree, or do they plan to buy votes by borrowing money, so the young generation will spend the rest of their lives paying off the capital & interest

... or are they telling porkies, knowing that a no deal Brexit will sweep this budget into the bin ?