Buying imported items after Brexit?

[Randomnumbers7483]

I am still not clear on the impact of a no deal situation -

1. Will imports from non-EU countries be affected at all? For example Bananas from Ghana - do they come directly or will they continue to be imported with no issues or will they also be impacted due to the lack of deal?

2. Products that we cannot import from Europe - will we still be able to buy them but just from Australia or USA or somewhere instead?

3. Is there a list somewhere of products that only come from Europe and so will we no longer be able to buy at all? For example I am assuming Olive Oil from Greece is going to be impossible to get hold of?

The question is a bit premature as the UK government are still pissing about and not decided if it is in, out or shake it all about.
Depending on HOW badly things are organised there may well be a period of total madness while things get sorted out, varying from no time at all (staying in or equivalent) to months if the UK really does 'crash out' without a deal. ALL products will be available again, probably more expensive depending on how quickly things get sorted. Country of origin may not be that relevant. Bananas for example I think come by ship to the EU then distributed from there.

You have to look at this as 2 separate items. Goods will always be available but price will probably increase (tariffs and extra customs costs) and secondly HOW it gets to you. This is heavily dependent on flights and ships so getting these sorted out will be crucial.

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1. yes, in some cases, for eg if they are imported under one of the EU's free trade agreements (which will lapse if no deal). Could also be affected by any disruption at ports.

2. it depends what they are: whether they are perishable, whether they can be sold at prices which will cover increased transport costs, whether they meet UK standards (which will initially at least still be the same as EU standards).

3. I'd be surprised if olive oil wasn't produced elsewhere, but no one is suggesting that the UK won't continue to import Italian, Greek and Spanish olive oil; it may become more expensive and there may be temporary disruption to supplies but imports won't cease, because the UK is a long way from being self sufficient in food.

I heard something about shipping & insurance & regulations & regulatory regimes for cargo shipping being disrupted in event of a true no deal. But I can't find firm details on that. This isn't so pessimistic.

Problem is that supply chains are so complicated now that many goods will be affected indirectly. You might think of something as manuf. in UK, but if it comprised of specialist parts in EU, they could be slower to arrive or maybe end up being sourced from further away which will mean less reliable arrival timing.

OP I work in Supply Chain. No expert, but my thoughts are..

There is a risk to aviation although personally I think this would be sorted prior to a No Deal. There could be an indirect impact due to overload on UK customs / ports until the required infrastructure (resources, systems etc) is put in place to deal with road freight from Europe.

Of course we will still be able to buy products from Europe - we actually have to, otherwise pretty much every single sector of manufacture in this country will grind to a halt, not to mention healthcare and other public services . Things may take longer to get here and cost more.

Unless they've done it already, there is probably not enough time between now and March for manufacturers to move to suppliers outside the EU for raw materials, and until the outcome of the deal (or not) is known, businesses would be unlikely to make this move anyway, so UK manufactured foods and other consumer goods are highly likely to be impacted by a No Deal outcome.

I don't know much about retail so I don't know how easy it would be for the big retailers to switch from an EU supplier to a non-EU source, but you've got to consider the scale at which this might need to be happening - if all the retailers suddenly want to buy all of product X from the US rather than EU, it's not going to happen quickly.

I do think delays in the Supply Chain could lead to short term unavailability, especially for basic items which people are most likely to stockpile / panic buy. Take bread, for e.g. If UK bakeries face delays in getting their bakers yeast from France, there could be a shortage of bread. As soon as people realise this, they will panic buy, and there will be no bread available. When consumers stockpile, and manufacturers are trying to match increased demand with lower output, situations can get really entrenched, and shortage of supply can go on for a lot longer than the raw material shortage lasts for.

I will certainly be doing some "prepping" if we have no deal by the end of the year and I am not given to prepping usually.