Brexit and Scotland - is there a plan?

[Thomasinaa]

Looks like we're heading for a disastrous no deal Brexit. I am dreading what the right-wingers will then do to the UK. So for those of us who live in Scotland - what's the next step? Is there any real chance of independence and re-joining the EU?

Re-joining the EU takes years, and costs a vast amount of money. We will be subject to all the same stipulations as any other country joining now, including taking the Euro as our currency which, let's face it, is a currency which will eventually collapse.

It will also put even larger barriers between us and England, which just isn't feasible.

I was an outspoken remained and a No voter in the Scottish referendum. The best result for all was for Scotland to remain and for us all to stay in the EU. But now that we're all leaving the EU, we need to suck it up and deal with it together.

There is a chance of joining the EU, we already meet most of the criteria by being a member already, and no regulatory alignment would be required, which usually takes the time and effort.
It may also be able to join EFTA, the Icelandic foreign minister said Scotland would be a good fit as it had similar values and beliefs to other EFTA countries.

It would be much, much easier for Scotland to get independence first then do a reverse Greenland, remaining in the EU while rUK leaves. If it's been done before in reverse, surely it can be done again? And having a close relationship with an ex UK country might smooth the EU UK relationship post Brexit, which so far is being ignored by everyone.

Re-joining the EU will not necessarily take years . There is no "queue": accession states can join once they meet the entrance criteria. Given that at 23.00 on 29 March 2019 the UK will still meet the criteria that they met a minute before (and if you believe what May says about continuing to match/follow EU regulations during transition , will continue to do so until the end of 2020), then Scotland, as a current constituent country within the state of the UK, will itself meet the criteria.

The longer Scotland leaves it and the more that the UK Government gets into bed with the USA with its desperation to get a deal, any deal the harder it will get as potentially the more that the UK will diverge from the EU - especially given that the trade talks with the USA will be held in secret

The one area where Scotland might have a difficulty is some of the financial criteria (the UK wouldn't currently meet them ). However, this would just delay joining the Eurozone, which may not be a bad thing - or we could do what Sweden does, which, although it has committed to join the €, never quite managed to meet the criteria

It would surprise me if Nicola, who is an astute and capable politician, hasn't been doing a lot of soft diplomacy, getting agreement in principle amongst the E27 that if Scotland were to relatively quickly achieve its independence, then it could go into some sort of "holding pen"/EFTA membership while the detail is sorted out.

If WM can seriously consider a hard border in the island of Ireland, with all the risks that that would involve , then, much as I would rather not have one, a hard border with England is also possible.

Such a scenario might actually give a boost to Rosyth, Greenock and Port Glasgow (and even Cairnryan), to build up their freight capability direct with the EU.

Yes to both your questions.

I’m pro independence and remain, and therefore I do want Scotland to separate from the rUK, but I still feel a little sad that a no deal Brexit will probably tear the U.K. apart in a damaging way ... it’s going to be a very messy divorce under those circumstances.

Do you think remainers could move to Scotland and rig the indy vote. No different to the entryism that propelled Corbyn to victory and is potentially going to hand the Tory crown to the crazies.

But instead of spending £3 online you'll have to buy or rent a house.

As a leave anti independence voter I can't see the British government giving permission for Scotland to hold another referendum. A am not so sure all the indi voters are also pro EU so it's not that certain that the indi voters would win. Also traditionally the SNP were anti EU.

Scotland has an 8% deficit, the worst in the entire world bar Syria and Zimbabwe. The maximum deficit allowed by the EU for entry is 3%.
It would take an independent Scotland at least ten years of massive tax rises and savage spending cuts to achieve anything like that reduction in deficit.
At present, you’re subsidised by England under the Barnett formula and are spending £1500 per head more on your population in services and benefits than the English themselves receive.
Independence looks like expensive lunacy.

I think the indies have gone very quiet on how they would fund an independent Scotland. They made so much of the oil money that was going to fund Scotland - what ever happened to that?

Babdoc "Independence looks like expensive lunacy".
A wee Scot, hunkering down to see how Brexit goes...Got the bannocks and Bru out

Yes, Scotland is currently running a deficit at a higher level than would be desirable (unlike many previous years when it was running a surplus that helped fund the growth of the financial sector in the South East

But - and it is a big but - at present it doesn't have control of most of the essential financial levers . It can't influence interest rates, corporation tax, VAT. It can tinker at the edges of income tax. Major infrastructure projects are deemed to be UK wide so are excluded from the Barnett formula. Just what benefit is HS2 going to bring to Scotland? Yet that contributes to Scotland's deficit Ditto with the cost of Trident - not something that Scotland wanted to pay for.

....and that's before we get into the debate about the cost of Brexit and the negative impact that it is going to have on GDP growth or decline relative to the EU.

...at least oil prices are likely to go up from their current low (in fact they're already up from their lowest point), so will benefit Scotland's figures (not that I think the financial case for independence should be based on oil but a Sovereign Wealth Gund like the one Norway has built up would've helped to weather the volatility of the oil market ) Unlike the prospects of UK economy outside of the EU

What is positive about the Brexit clusterfuck is that there are now more English people who understand why some Scots want independence from Westminster and have started to see that there might be a different way of doing things - and are even contemplating moving to Scotland to share in a better potential future. One that is not driven by disaster capitalists.

@Prettybird
On the shameful way Westminster has largely abandoned anywhere 'North' (and the South West) could Scotland move the border to somewhere around Watford Gap, (well a bit North of the services as they are crap)? I am sure the enterprising Scots who did so much for the Industrial Revolution could think of ways of getting a bit more from the underfunded infrastructure and mineral wealth from largely abandoned in Northern England.

Idk as an England living women, i'd like Scotland to battle Westminster for the sake of all of us. Totally get that an Indy ref might be the right direction for Scotland it self but then when it comes to borders... It's more of the bad isn't it?

Under the current voting system and set up at WM, Scotland can't stop anything the Government wants to do

The 2015 GE, with the SNP winning 56 out of 59 seats proved that . And even after the 2017 GE, it still has a majority of the Scottish seats.

This is an interesting article about the Scottish "deficit". It is 2 years old but the principles still apply. Interestingly, even though it was written after the EU Referendum, it doesn't actually mention Brexit. I don't think at the time the clusterfuck full extent of the way WM would cock up the withdrawal was obvious as May was only just taking over.

But what an independent Scotland could do is demonstrate that there is a different way . Sorry, don't think we can move the border though but we will welcome refugees from England immigrants, because far from needing fewer immigrants, Scotland actively needs more but has no say on UK immigration policy

Not sure how much Scotland will be able to do things differently from England. Eg the Scottish government is in charge of the NHS in Scotland - does this mean it can resist it being sold off to private American companies? Could it afford that?
Presumably it has no control over the quality of food that enters Scotland?
And no control over workers' rights?

Oops - forgot to put in put in the link

http://www.businessforscotland.com/question-ask-every-unionist-gers/

On the basis that Carlisle has been both English or Scottish over the years the 'border' is a 'sort of' moveable feast.
I suppose you could view it that Carlisle is so far from Westminster that the English (Gov) couldn't really care if it is a few more or a few less square miles of often damp 'far away place'.
I would love to be able to afford to live in the Northern 'Lake district'.

I'm confused Thomasinaa

Why would an independent Scotland have to sell off NHS Scotland to private American companies? ....unless you're suggesting that WM, in its power grab of devolved areas, is going to sign a trade deal with the US that is so watertight that even when Scotland is independent, it can't get out of them? (All the more reason to go for independence sooner rather than later, so that WM can't sell off things that belong to Scotland )

Ditto with food quality - an independent Scotland would be able to decide its own standards, so why would it not have control over them? We won't need to accept US chlorinated chicken or hormone fed beef.

Ditto with workers' rights

Obviously as long as they are compatible with EU requirements - but there again, we would have a say in developing them. 5 out of our 6 MEPs are hard working the other one is a waste of space and an aberration in the Scottish electoral landscape

Sorry, Pretty, fairly new to Scotland and not sure how much power Scotland has over its own affairs at the moment and will have post Brexit but before independence (if independence happens). Worried about what will happen soon after Brexit, and how much Scotland will be able to resist the right wing changes we are likely to see in the UK post Brexit.

Good questions.

Normally I would say that in devolved areas like health and agriculture, Scotland can pretty much get on with things itself - albeit that it is dependent on a budget that is a function of what WM chooses to spend on public services (rather than what it raises itself - although it does now have limited powers to raise some of its own funds). The NHS in Scotland - although not perfect - is in a better state of health sorry than NHS England. Ditto with education.

However , WM has now passed within its Brexit legislation, laws that mean that WM can legislate on devolved areas, with or without_ the permission of the Scottish Parliament

It's supposedly to make things easier when these areas "come back" from the EU and will allow WM to legislate on a UK wide basis.

It's what triggered the SNP walk out of WM, as not a single Scottish MP was allowed to talk in the debate on the power grab WM being able to legislate on devolved areas. It was a stunt, yes, but given that MSM hadn't covered it the night before when it happened, at least after the walk out more people in both Scotland and the rest of the UK were aware of the democratic deficit.

....factor in to that the fact that the trade talks with the USA are supposed to be conducted in secret and will be covered under the 10(?) year rule before they are released and it is a recipe for disaster.

Forgive me if I don't trust WM's motives

Pretty can SNP go to the EU (or even the UN) and be all "WTF?!" about Westminster power grab? First they force Scotland to leave then they don't let scotland have a say in how they leave? How much wrong can there be?!

Don't think they can do anything officially at the moment, as Scotland is not a sovereign state.

But I think the power grab would make it more difficult for May (or whoever succeeds her ) to deny a Section 30 notice if the Scottish Government, with the backing of the Scottish Parliament, were to formally ask to hold a referendum.

No, and no.

There won't be another independence referendum for at least 10 years.

Scotland would not be admitted to the EU anyway. They would never reach the financial criteria and the Spanish would veto it as setting a terrible precedent for Catalonia.

Why any Scots would want to split from England and Wales just to give up their self-government to Brussels is beyond me.

Do keep up Whollyfather

Spain said explicitly over a year ago that it wouldn't veto EU membership to an independent Scotland provided it was done constitutionally_ (which to be fair on Rahoy, was his position even before the Indyref, even though it was misreported in the UK media).

https://www.scotsman.com/news/spain-would-not-block-independent-scotland-eu-application-1-4409892

I have deliberately linked to the Scotsman article as evidence, as it is a steadfastly Unionist paper which hates the idea of Scottish independence.