Is this good or bad? Can’t decide.

[Chocolala]

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/13/companies-brexit-supply-shock-fewer-eu-citizens-arrive-uk

“The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said the number of applicants per vacancy had fallen since last summer across all levels of skilled jobs, and said shortages were forcing many companies to raise wages.“

Your link is broken.

I assume it's the same piece I read.

Supply/demand dictates that business needs to quit zero hour contracts and reliance upon the state to make up their exploitation of employees via tax credits and housing benefits.

Some business will fold because they cannot make money, some businesses will carry on. Unemployment will be much of a muchness, business failing v business struggling to staff their going concern.

Local authorities will gain from the working poor no longer claiming HB. The MC will lose cheap labour and the WC will see things improve work wise.

Losers will be those in retirement and benefit claiming people with disabilities. The cost of living and care will go up and their income will not. However LAs will have less outgoings in HB and may be able to use this in SC.

Long term I think it will be a good thing. It's always better if people don't have to rely on benefits to top up their income and over time business will be used to paying proper wages for the jobs they have.

Short term I think businesses may struggle to employ as many people, sacrificing 1 in 5 for example to pay the higher wages of the other 4, so some people will suffer.

The Guardian article says that applicants for low skilled jobs have reduces for 24 to 20 per job and for medium skilled jobs from 19 to 10.
This has meant that companies are having to increase salaries to attract the right candidate which can only be a good thing. It's not saying there is a skills shortage only that there is less of a glut of people applying for the same jobs.
This is exactly what I wanted Brexit to do. All good as far as I'm concerned.

The Guardian article says that applicants for low skilled jobs have reduces for 24 to 20 per job and for medium skilled jobs from 19 to 10
This has meant that companies are having to increase salaries to attract the right candidate which can only be a good thing. It's not saying there is a skills shortage only that there is less of a glut of people applying for the same jobs

This is exactly what I wanted Brexit to do. All good as far as I'm concerned

A company employing low-skilled workers still has 20 applicants for each job, so only a fall of 16%. By definition, low-skilled jobs can be filled by low-skilled workers fairly quickly (as there is little training time needed) so these companies will not be greatly affected.

A fall of 47% in the availability of medium-skilled workers however presents a greater challenge. Companies can pay higher wages, which in turn causes higher prices, making products less competitive. If a combination of increased costs and unavailability of labour means that a company cannot continue, it will either close or relocate. My own company has already relocated to the EU as 1) that is where 90% of our clients are; 2) we have no idea about what barriers to trade we would have faced post-Brexit and 3) most of our staff from the EU (whose language skills, market knowledge and contacts we require) have returned to their home countries.

As for the availability of applicants after Brexit, there is a completely different model that might come into play which absolutely won't be good news. Suppose British manufacturing collapses (as even Brexiters are predicting) then as many as a million skilled workers will lose their jobs, as well as all of the other workers whose jobs depend on the spending power of the now-unemployed workers - shop assistants, leisure industry, building etc, whose products are no longer affordable. Add to that a million British workers returning from the EU and there is suddenly a glut of workers and no work. People will be unable to leave the UK and take their skills elsewhere, so people will be fighting over any job at any wage just to stay in employment.

If i'm an employer and i still have 20 applicants for every job, so what? still means 19 wont get the job.... why would i increase wages?

If wages do rise, then those staff costs will be passed to the consumer, increasing their costs and lowering their std of living.

Of course, its equally possible an employer will not expand because of the lack of workers, ultimately reducing wages and job opportunities, as the PP said.

Funnily enough Double, even though we voted differently, i also believe a benefit of brexit may be higher wages and increased training of UK workers, however, everything i hear is that business and the Government intend to fill shortfalls from non Eu countries and/or still allow eu migration, negating these benefits, an additional danger is that workers will lose rights over time.

Whatever else the reasons for Brexit , it wont be for our benefit.

The fact that there are still 10 people applying for every job is hardly a major problem though is it? I can quite see why your company would relocate to the EU Havana. In fact I can't see why it was in the UK in the first place really and would have thought relocation to the EU would make sense Brexit or not.

Why is (or rather was) our company based in the UK rather than the EU mainland - well, because until 29th March 2019, the UK is part of the EU. Despite what some Brexiters seem to believe, the EU is not some weird separate planet, thousands of miles away, populated by vindictive green men. Cardiff, Copenhagen, Coventry, Cologne are all within 2-3 hours of our UK office and we could deliver overnight to most of the EU. At the same time, recruitment of staff with language skills, market knowledge and contacts was comparatively easy and our sales and maintenance staff could be on-site with a customer within hours. What the government and the Leave cheerleaders have failed to appreciate is that modern businesses can relocate fairly quickly and easily if conditions change. It doesn't matter whether we are talking about my own modest company or Nissan, Airbus, HSBC etc - as the Japanese Ambassador spelled out to Mrs May, no business can remain in a location where it cannot make a profit.

It's not as if Theresa May doesn't know this:

“In a stand-off between Britain and the EU, 44 per cent of our exports is more important to us than eight per cent of the EU’s exports is to them. The economic arguments are clear. Being part of a 500-million trading bloc is significant for us. One of the issues is that a lot of people will invest here in the UK because it is the UK in Europe.”

Mrs May - May 2016

Raising wages to recruit is not always possible. I work in the public sector and we cannot recruit for some skilled posts for love or money (some of these posts are very well paid!). 10 years ago we would have had 20 applicants for each vacancy, most very strong.

... and our neck of the woods is unencumbered by immigration by the way

Oh dear Havana, I should have said main land Europe - Sorry!

I might not want to Brexit but I have thought that leaving will mean UK investment in skills and (hopefully) wage increases. But a sharp shock will surely mean a lot of companies going to the wall. Which might be good if it gets rid of so-called zombie companies, but not so great for people who need to be employed to eat etc.

10% of Havana's company's business is in the UK (currently in the EU), 90% is on mainland Europe (probably less if some customers are in Ireland) ie, spread about amongst 27 countries. And therefore it would make sense to move to mainland Europe?

I don't get the logic

Are Brexiters actively wanting businesses to leave the UK?

No Prettybird, I don't actively want businesses to leave the UK but I would think it economic scene for Havana's company to be located on mainland Europe, Brexit or not.

It must depend on the sector - for example in nursing and social care - and indeed in any other private sector job funded by taxation eg rubbish collection, recycling, etc etc, it's surely a bad thing? There is only a limited pot and if eg social care costs rise because higher wages are needed it will mean fewer jobs or else more bankrupt local authorities.

So, Uk companies predominately exporting to EU would be better off relocating?
How about services? makes sense for them to go too?

We are in for a grim future.

Havana's example of her company is one who employs all EU nationals and exports most of it's output to the EU. So makes sense to relocate jasjas.

Nope, still don't get the logic . The Uk is still, it would appear, the single largest country for the majority of its business

And Havana hasn't said that all the employees are EU nationals (I presume by that, you mean E27 nationals as of course you do realise that even UK citizens are currently also EU citizens, at least until 29 March when we will then have that citizenship taken off us ): what she said was, "most of our staff from the EU (whose language skills, market knowledge and contacts we require) have returned to their home countries" A different thing entirely.

Sometimes I despair of the Little England mentality (and yes, I mean "Little England" )

There is no logic.

I'm not sure i get your logic, the criteria seems to be that so long as they employ mainly UK workers but output is exported to EU, they should stay? but if workforce is EU then relocate?

When Havana's company moves to the EU, we lose their tax revenue, their workers spending power plus any supply chain companies may well go bust etc etc.

We should be fighting for ALL UK based companies to stay here, grow & encouraging more foreign businesses to relocate whether brexit will facilitate that or not, is for another thread.

Just to add a few points:

Almost all of our staff are skilled employees and are from the other EU countries - primarily the countries that we do business with. We have been able to retain their services by working out a remote-working solution, so that they can work from locations in their home countries rather than all together in a UK office. Internet, Cloud, Skype etc make this very easy.

The UK workers that are affected by our move are the people who work for our suppliers - and the cleaners and janitor who works for the office rental company, the drivers who deliver goods to us and take our products away for shipping, the cafe and coffee shop employees in the building, our UK accountant etc. None will go out of business solely because we leave, but 10,000 or 20,000 companies leaving or themselves closing down will make a dent in their viability.

I admit that I introduced 'Mainland' Europe into the discussion, but actually, due to the huge daily number of flights out of the south east of England to the rest of Europe, plus the Eurostar, much of the UK is now directly linked to the Continent. E.g. London-Paris by train is 2 hrs 15 mins; only 5 minutes longer than London-Manchester by train and 45 mins less than London-Newcastle by train. I appreciate that this is not the case for all of the UK, but in many ways the south east of England is very much an integral part of Europe.

It's also worth pointing out that just because 20 people apply for a job, it doesn't necessarily follow that any are a suitable fit. 10 less so.

“many as a million skilled workers will lose their jobs, as well as all of the other workers whose jobs depend on the spending power of the now-unemployed workers - shop assistants, leisure industry, building etc, ”

There is quite a lot of research showing that the multiplier effect for skilled jobs is around 3-5, meaning that the loss of a skilled job leads to a further loss of another 3-5 jobs in the local area.