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Brexit
Original poster

Will future generations rejoin the EU

39 replies

SoloD · 30/07/2018 19:13

The Brexit vote divided Britain terribly and one of the most notable divides was by age. The elderly were far more likley to vote for Leaving the EU.

As this generation passes away (quicker now we won't be able to fund or staff the NHS) will the young Remainers choose to rejoin the EU in the future just without the opt-outs and rebates we have at the moment?

Will future generations rejoin the EU
OP posts:
LoveInTokyo · 31/07/2018 08:28

It might not be up to them.

We originally applied to join the EEC in 1961 but the French vetoed us until 1973.

StripeyMonkey1 · 31/07/2018 09:51

From the bookies today:

No Brexit deal to be reached before April 1st 2019: 1/2

Another EU Referendum to be held before April 1st 2019: 9/4

The UK to apply to rejoin the EU by 2027: 5/2

www.oddschecker.com

StripeyMonkey1 · 31/07/2018 09:56

Alternative odds provided:

No Brexit deal to be reached before April 1st 2019: 6/4 !!!!!! Shock

But...

UK to still be a full member of the EU on 1st January 2020: 11/10

StripeyMonkey1 · 31/07/2018 09:57

Sorry 4/6 on no deal. I thought that was shocking!

LoveInTokyo · 31/07/2018 09:58

I don't understand betting odds. Can you explain those for a betting rookie please?

StripeyMonkey1 · 31/07/2018 10:08

From the interweb (I'm no betting expert!):

Betting odds represent the probability of an event to happen and therefore enable you to work out how much money you will win if your bet wins. As an example, with odds of 4/1, for every £1 you bet, you will win £4. There is a 20% chance of this happening, calculated by 1 / (4 + 1) = 0.20

And of course odds only indicate what people who are betting money at the moment think is most likely to happen - no more than that. That said, I did think the odds on rejoining the EU in 2027 were quite striking.

onalongsabbatical · 31/07/2018 10:23

We will apply to, yes; I'd say that was a no brainer. Why on earth they'd let us after all this is a mystery. We'd have to convince them we'd keep the Euro-sceptics well in check and never, ever allow them to do this again. Bit of a task.

missmouse101 · 31/07/2018 10:27

It’s very dangerous to blindly quote statistics like you have done by using that graph. A large amount of young people did not bother to vote at all. That graph has not told the true story. But, who can say what will happen in the future? I personally believe more countries will follow suit.

Judashascomeintosomemoney · 31/07/2018 10:29

They might want to but as pp said it won’t be up to them. The single biggest barrier I imagine will be the EU would insist on adopting the single currency. Even the most ardent Europhiles generally accept it was a blimmin good job we didn’t join the Euro back in 2003.

LoveInTokyo · 31/07/2018 10:29

missmouse101

No one is looking at us and thinking, "yeah, Brexit is going well, we should do the same!"

ForgivenessIsDivine · 31/07/2018 10:36

No. The UK decided not to join with the founding members after WW2. As a previous poster pointed out,when they did decide to join in the 60's, it took some time for their membership to be approved. The UK, over the years, have seen themselves as a moderating influence on the desire to increase cooperation within the EU. It is difficult to predict how the political landscape of Europe will change with Brexit but I do not believe that the UK will rejoin an EU in its current format.

DGRossetti · 31/07/2018 11:05

Betting odds represent the probability of an event to happen and therefore enable you to work out how much money you will win if your bet wins

Not really.

Betting odds are mainly affected by how much the bookie stands to lose if a bet wins. The more people that bet on a certain outcome, the lower the odds will be. They even tell you, by naming a "favourite".

Obviously, before the first bet is taken, the bookmaker has to figure out some initial odds.

Bookmakers and insurance companies (insurance is simply formalised betting) both have actuary departments. (As I was once told, "Actuaries are people that found accountancy too racy.")

Original poster
SoloD · 31/07/2018 11:13

missmouse101

Do you have any evidence for your belief? You might notice the Brexit effects from polls conducted for Pew research

Will future generations rejoin the EU
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Original poster
SoloD · 31/07/2018 11:17

Yes one set of statistics does not tell the whole story but research has shown that attitudes to globalisation and immigration are notably more more open that the old.

yougov.co.uk/news/2012/07/27/young-people-future/

It is such as huge pity that they old who voted for Brexit did so knowing they would not have to bare the consequences of their vote. We may well be heading back to a situation in the 1970s where our youth have to travel abroad to Europe looking for jobs.

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LoveInTokyo · 31/07/2018 11:24

We may well be heading back to a situation in the 1970s where our youth have to travel abroad to Europe looking for jobs.

In the 1970s they enjoyed free movement.

Original poster
SoloD · 31/07/2018 11:37

I don't think Freedom of Movement came in until the 1990s. But it should be possible for those with the right qualifications and language skills to get visas and jobs in the EU.

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SusanWalker · 31/07/2018 11:41

But if you were an EU company why would you bother hiring someone who needs a visa when you have qualified people from a pool of 27 countries to choose from, none of whom will need any kind of visa?

DGRossetti · 31/07/2018 12:04

I don't think Freedom of Movement came in until the 1990s.

Freedom of movement came the moment we joined the EEC - 1973. It was restricted by some EU countries when the Eastern European countries joined (because they could do that - despite the nonsense Leave spouted).

But if you were an EU company why would you bother hiring someone who needs a visa when you have qualified people from a pool of 27 countries to choose from, none of whom will need any kind of visa?

Or a US company. My DBs US company has already started to narrow applicants to dual EU nationals.

Lazypuppy · 31/07/2018 12:11

@SoloD i'm young and voted leave so go against your statistics

Original poster
SoloD · 31/07/2018 12:22

@Lazypuppy, not really, the graph I posted at the top showed that 27% of 18 - 24 years olds voted leave. Not all young voted remain, not all the elderly voted leave, the stats show this.

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Racecardriver · 31/07/2018 12:24

Well I doubt the the EU will exist in its current form 20 years from now. Scgengen is already very much under threat. I really hope the the EU will liberalise and decentralise so the UK can rejoin.

onalongsabbatical · 31/07/2018 12:24

Lazypuppy you don't 'go against' the stats because the stats don't actually say that no-one young voted for Brexit. If that's your level of comprehension for analysing stats that's rather worrying.

Witchonastick · 31/07/2018 12:24

My Mum in her 70’s voted remain, my Daughter age 19 voted leave.
Both had reasoned discussions about it and came to their own conclusions separately.

Racecardriver · 31/07/2018 12:25

Do also bare in mindost people becomeuch more right wing as they start earning their own living, have families to support, start businesses, read more etc.

LoveInTokyo · 31/07/2018 12:29

Do also bare in mind ost some people become much more right wing as they start earning their own living, have families to support, start businesses, read more etc when they have more money.

Fixed that for you.

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