Hard brexit and consequences for the 4.5 million expats

[Quietrebel]

With the growing threat of complete stalemate in the negotiations and the UK crashing out, I'm just wondering about the practical consequences for immigrants on both sides (EU in UK and UK in EU). Current average processing time of a PR application is 6 months. There are 3.5 million EU citizens here give or take... reading about the spat between Hammond and Javid on FOM didn't fill me with confidence (I won't even mention the btl comments in the Mail, they were vile). They were arguing about future arrivals post Brexit and the message from the Home Secretary was loud and clear: no flexibility whatsoever. In case of no transition and the limitations of what the HO could actually cope with, could we have millions suddenly unable to work, use the nhs etc.? For months, years? How would that look then??
For UK citizens in Europe, it will then also be up to the goodwill of their host country's government...
Mistreatment of citizens could potentially poison uk-eu relations durably even more and I think this is another example of why a crash out brexit is complete madness. Am I wrong to be concerned?

Fortunately, other countries seem to have a more benevolent view on the UK expats that have lived among them for years. So I would say they will be fine, as a expat in the UK... apply ASAP.

Yes, done that and fingers crossed it'll cone through before march... I've been here over 2 decades, never worked elsewhere, had my DC here. All I have and everyone I care for is here... but I stupidly convinced my elderly parents to buy property here and retire near me. They've not been here long enough to qualify for PR. Feeling so guilty right now...

There's already been guidance given on obtaining settled status in the UK. Have a look at that if you are concerned.

Thanks, I am aware of it but isn't this subject to a deal and transition period? It may become obsolete in case of no deal, that's what I'm worried about. I hope I'm wrong but it's like everything else with brexit: legal agreements affecting everything including people's immigration status will abruptly expire in case of no deal and there won't be quick alternatives in place overnight. Immigration is an either/or situation (you're either legal or you're not) so unless there is some transition process for that, 3.5 million will be illegally here full stop. No deal kills off transition in any area... so I'm waiting for Javid to say something about that.

I'm UK born living in another European country - I started my citizenship application here as soon as the vote happened. My new country allows duel citizenship. Here I did a language test, citizenship test, had to collect some paperwork and fill in a form, and show my qualifications, two visits to a local govt office and it was approved. Got my citizenship within about 3 months. Kids already duel citizens via DH.

When I went for my citizenship test the administrator said "ah, another Brexit refugee, were getting a lot of you atm, bad for Britian, good for us!" Which was funny but quite welcoming!

There's already been guidance given on obtaining settled status in the UK.
Except said settled status is linked with te U.K. actually getting a deal with eu.
If the U.K. crashes out, everything is fair game. And the U.K. is certainly unde r no obligation to let eu citizens stay/have access to the NHS and benefits etc...

I’m not sure on a legal pov, what sort of protection PR will give you in case of a No Deal. Aka is that the same than ILR. I think it is but would need to be confirmed.

I’ve been waiting for the settled status to come (nearly 20 here too) because when I looked, as aself empolyed person, the documents they asked for were crazy. So gave up after 3 attempts to put things together. I’m thinking to try again just in case.

Having said that, it seems they are quicker than 6 months now for the PR card.

My guess is that they will still go for the settled status stuff with a 2 years period because there is no way they can cope with more than that.
BUT and that’s a very big BUT, there will be paperwork available. Can you imagine the mess it will be when they can’t actually recognise a real proper ILR visa in a passport?? How will EU citizens be able to ‘prove’ they are allowed in the U.K., access to the nhs etc etc...

I wish it was that easy to get a PR here, let alone the citizenship....

Yep Hermione I wish it was for you too. DH is a citizen of this country so we'll never live in the UK again, Brexit burnt that bridge. It'll put the kids off trying it out too. A lot of well qualified people won't bother with the UK and will take their skills elsewhere, given there are so many countries without barriers.

Well, the process in the UK is not that simple. I also have to admit that over the years (I arrived in my late teens) I quite simply 'forgot' I was a foreigner. It was irrelevant... until now obviously! Of course I submitted the PR application and a ridiculous amount of paperwork and once that goes through will naturalize too. That's the only way I could ever have peace of mind again. Now my concern is with my parents as I'm an only child so want them near me. They've only been here full time for about two years.

There are risks for Britons living in the EU27 too.

For example, in a "crash out" Brexit, Britons in France would become third country nationals on 29th March, and without the correct immigration paperwork, even those of us who have paid into the social security system for many years could be temporarily without healthcare.

Exactly Mistigri, it's potentially very complicated for UK expats and the rules will be different in each EU country.

I also think the UK government is at risk of wasting a lot of goodwill and you know at some point, once it's gone it's gone. But maybe that's the aim. To burn all bridges completely.

There are risks and issues in both sides tbh.

I’m wondering what the EU27 have planned in a case of a No Deal. I know they haven’t said anyth8ng but I doubt that no preparation are under way. Not now with the EU telling everyone to gear up for it.

I would expect a system in place to avoid exactly what you are talking about Misti. Just like they will need one here in the UK.
Because you just can't send 100 thousand or more people back home on the 29th March. Or expect them to have the ‘right’ paperwork in a day.

The main issue is surely international families - one UK parent, one eu27, kids... Especially if they haven't lived for enough years in either country for either parent to qualify for citizenship or settled status. What then? Break up families who were established before anyone had invented the word "Brexit"?

What then? Break up families who were established before anyone had invented the word "Brexit"?

UK will absolutely do this, perhaps by "mistake" but the home office has form.

Other EU27 countries tend to have more family friendly immigration policies for eg in France, having a French child is enough to get you a residence permit and (eventually) nationality.

This morning in the Independent: EU citizens at risk of being left out of jobs and housing if the settled 'digital code' assigned to them is open to interpretation by landlords and employers.... someone said it would be as easy as opening an online shopping account, right? If this project is all botched job and cut corners it'll be worth about as much ☹

blue they will absolutely NO ISSUE doing that with people who are much more established (eg people who have been here for 20+ years).
Esp if it’s the woman who is European and she has followed the normal british custom that says a woman should be with her dc when they are little. (Or one of the dc has a health issue needing lots of appointment etc etc).
just look at the way they’ve treated the windrush people. Settled in the uk for 40 years, british citizens but told to ‘get back home’ or denied treatment on the nhs.....

Well it's confirmed what I already thought: naturalisation or nothing (as in leaving, which would break my heart and is absolutely the last resort). And even then I will hammer into DCs to keep ALL their passports!

Quietrebel

We're probably in a similar situation to you (DW EU national, DCs British). In March last year we started applying for the PR card for DW (who's been here for 40 years) and after an initial rejection we sent documentation measured in kilos, not pages. Initial rejection took 3 months to come through, then additional time collating all the evidence and redoing the form.

Finally got PR card in November, although it sais she'd been here only since 2011, not 1978 as is actually the case. We then realised there's nothing "permanent" about it - if we leave for more than 2 years, she'll lose her PR rights. So started citizenship process (language test, Life in UK test, both passed at first attempt) and submitted appropriate lengthy form & supporting documentation (plus £1330 admin fee!). We then got a notice requesting biometric enrolment, which can only be done in certain Post Offices. Did the deed, PO confirmed the biometrics had been sent, then waited for a while. Then got another letter saying we'd failed to provide the biometric details. Wrote back with copy of receipt from Post Office, received reply saying our application had "been unsuccessful in the system" (whatever that means, but basically it was our fault we'd failed).

So back to PO, did biometrics again and asked for comfirmation from HO that they'd got the information this time. No answer as yet, so still waiting. All in all, it's taken almost 18 months to date, paid out over £2000, jumped through every hoop in sight and we still don't know whether DW will get her British citizenship.

When (If!) we do finally get the UK passport, we'll probably move back to Germany anyway, although we have no family or friends there any more (40 years is a long time). We just need UK citizenship in case Germany doesn't work out and we need to come back. And a vote, of course, which she never had in the Referendum which has turned our lives on their head.

I can’t be bothered to get a citizenship from a country that has treated me so badly and think so little of me tbh.

Maybe, and I thought that for a bit but I just don't want to give the xenophobes what they want. I still believe the country is worth more than that.

@ hasenstein, I really hope it works out for your DW (and for me too!) it sounds exhausting.

Quietrebel
I also feel that I don't want the xenophobes to win. When we came here (back here in my case) in 1978, what attracted us was the welcoming and open society we found here. Germany felt more stuffy in those days and the UK seemed a friendly place to live. How times change.

We've paid taxes here for 40 years, raised children, worked for charities and tried our best to contribute to the society we live in. Now my DW has changed from being here by right to an immigrant who has to beg to stay here. We had never had to deal with bureaucrats like the Home Office before and it's been a shock, with costs, obstacles and downright rudeness at every turn.

What really annoys me are those Leave voters who express deep sympathy for what we've had to go through dealing with the Home Office. "But we didn't mean people like you, dear, you're lovely and should be able to stay here". Well you should have bloody well thouight of that before you voted then. What did you think you were voting for? Didn't you think about the consequences of what you were doing for millions of "lovely" people?

I know what Hermione means about feeling unwelcome and badly treated, but I really don't want the Little Englanders to win. It's now come down to looking after ourselves and making sure we have some security in our lives, so getting citizenship is important for us, as our friends and family are all here; it is, after all, our home too. The possibility of going back to Germany is our escape route if everything goes too horribly wrong here.

Some info here (although this may of course change) : www.gov.uk/guidance/status-of-eu-nationals-in-the-uk-what-you-need-to-know

I’m in France, not been here long enough to apply for citizenship, now married to a French man. I hope I will still be allowed to work here after Brexit day.

Trying to work out whether being pregnant on Brexit day would help or harm me.

@LoveInTokyo - you should have no problems, as you'd be fully eligible for the EU family permit, since you're married to an EU citizen.