Moving to England from abroad: thoughts about Brexit and its implications for housing and finance

[NotGenderSpecific]

This is a hypothetical post, not partisan in any way; just discussing what might happen after March 2019, and how to plan for the most likely effects of Brexit.

These are my current concerns:

• Interest rates will probably rise as the UK will need to woo foreign investors in the economic slump what will probably happen post-Brexit. Thus the cost of lending will increase.

• A recession will take place after Brexit. It will take some time to establish trade with other countries. As has been discussed in the media, there might be shortages of goods. The feeling amongst foreign investors will be to stay away until things become clearer.

• The Retail Prices Index will increase along with inflation.

• House prices will drop.

This is my take and I'd be very interested to hear what others think.

Moving to the UK and settling, needs a lot of planning and I'm thinking that we'll be better keeping capital in our bank/savings accounts to start with, rather than arriving and immediately buying a house.

Who knows where inflation/interest/mortgage rates will go!

Whichever way you look at it things are not going to be 'rosy' for some time. Keeping as much of your money in whichever 'non UK' bank would probably be wise. I know nothing about money apart from the fact I am about to lose loads when whatever the UK does actually kicks in.
I 'think' the Euro may be more stable than the Dollar as Mr Trumps speak/contradict performance makes estimation of where the Dollar/Pound will go near impossible.
I would like to think the Pound to Euro will go up to 1.5 Euros to the Pound in a few months time but I don't believe in unicorns.

Our family are in a situation where we live in the Netherlands but DH wants to move back to the UK, just because he misses it ( and family). He works internationally for a US firm, so can live anywhere. We've lived in NL for 14 years and it's really great. I'm not too keen on returning, partly because we don't know what we move back to, partly because I'm of Eastern European origin ( it wasn't a problem when we lived in the UK before, but could be now) and partly due to the drop in the standard of living ( sorry, don't mean to hurt/annoy, but it's just so nice where we live now). Our kids were born in the NL but have UK passports and speak English perfectly, but spelling could be a problem for a year as they (10 and 8 year olds), were educated in Dutch and the spelling in that language is very phonetic, this easier than English.
Returning to the UK has become so unpredictable for us as a family, it puts us in a real dilemma, especially since this 'Czech girl' will need to work too, and I wonder how easy the acceptance of me would be.

If we crash out with no deal and no changeover period I think it will be very difficult for quite sometime.

Food, medication etc etc are quite likely to be in short supply. Prices are likely to escalate rapidly.

Wouldn't it be better, if at all possible, to wait until after March 2019 (plus a few months) to see how things are going?
I would have said wait a couple of years but I assume you are also thinking about the 10yo starting secondary in autumn 2019. (And the type of private school that starts secondary at 13 rather than 12 is the most expensive.) However the potential mess Brexit could cause would make life a lot more difficult than simply moving house and trying to get school places for kids not in standard starting years.

Yes Penny, it was the concern of the secondary school that is the issue. We don't want to have him changing schools half way through his senior school, although he's adaptive, in reality

Not sure why you haven't had more replies. It's a big decision to balance out. Maybe start a new thread of your own? Do you know all about the procedures already and what the schools are like in the area? If not you could post on secondary education.

But yeah next spring/summer is really not a great time to be arriving in the UK unless it's unavoidable. Even many fervent Brexit supporters expect there will be some teething troubles.

I actually tried a post of my own but I didn't get any replies ( maybe I posted it incorrectly, I have no idea!).

OP - I think the reason you've had so few replies is that none of us have a clue! There have been some grim predictions (from DexEu I think?) if we crash out with no deal.

Most Brits are going about their daily lives in blissful ignorance about the impending disaster.

If I were you, I'd stay in NL for at least 12 months then you can get a clearer picture.

Sorry - my reply was for @mixedbunch, not OP

{Even many fervent Brexit supporters expect there will be some teething troubles.}
With current progress this might be one of the understatements of the year.

Yes, everyone tells me we should stay. The Dutch are watching on, bemused at losing what they think of as a like-minded allay. The Belgium and Germans too. It's so pointless, and everyone is set to lose. Britain will make trade deals, that's for sure, but trade deals always come with less strict visa regulations, so a higher movement of people between those countries. It could be a case of the UK being flooded with different people rather than the white Christian Eastern Europeans they had ( sorry if that sounds racist, it isn't, just realist).

I would think within the next 4-5 months it will be much clearer if any kind of deal is going to be reached, at which point it may be easier to predict the likely outcomes. So I would hold out for a bit longer if I were you.

OP here!

I'm grateful for all the posts.

It seems that there has been some bleed-through from someone else's thread. I don't know how this happens, but welcome!

I have no 10-year-old to worry about and I'm very glad of that in our current position, however I do have a DW who is going nuts here in Thailand because she can't continue her career due to restrictive job opportunities imposed by the government here.

DW needs a career and we need money!
The UK is the only country we can move to as South Africa, DW's homeland, is a no-no because of crime and anti-white feeling.
We can't delay. We've had enough of Thailand and, once a decision to move is made, we think it's best to get going rather than be depressed staying somewhere that's not working for us.

Even in the three days since I first posted, Leave.eu has been fined for electoral irregularites and the case handed to the police for criminal prosecution.
Maybe Brexit will be nipped in the bud. It's obviously doing nobody any good.

@mixedbunch
If you have an option to stay where you are I would do so for now. We would, but it's not going well for us here. I think a 'Czech girl' would be welcomed in Britain. People who welcome newcomers far outnumber the extremist fools, who forget that we have benefited much more from immigration than we have lost.

Thanks Nonegender. Have you thought of The Netherlands? I presume your wife speaks Africaans, and it's very close to Dutch, plus everyone speaks English. If you like the countryside, or boating and sailing, it's worth a look. What's your job, by the way? Is it easily transferable?