Westministenders: High Drama at The Ok Coral

[RedToothBrush]

3:00 p.m. Wednesday, October 26, 1881, Tombstone, Arizona.

After months of death threats from the Cowboy Billys, their long simmering feud with the law thing came to a head. The Earp Brothers and Doc Holliday faced the criminals down in a shootout.

Tomorrow's 'sleepover' is starting to feel like the Gunfight at the OK Coral.

The outcome of the real story was three of the outlaws were killed. Another two claimed they were unarmed and ran from the fight. Virgil, Morgan, and Doc Holliday were wounded, but Wyatt Earp was unharmed.

How many Brexiteers can we expect to roll over and resign from the Cabinet and how many will surrender to May and the Pro-Business lobby? ONly time will tell.

Please place your bets for the number of resignations and the number of 'I support the PM' comments.

But don't get too excited. The showdown wasn't the end of the matter.

One of the outlaws who legged it, filed murder charges against the Earps and Doc Holliday. It took them some time for them to be acquitted.

Then Virgil Earp was ambushed and disabled in the arm later that year in December and Morgan Earp was assassinated in March 1882. Wyatt Earp, then thinking he had no other option, went on a personal vendetta to kill the outlaws and then fled the state.

Given the Tory Cabinet and the perchant for stabbing each other in the back and settling personal scores, a repeat of a wild west gun fight, really doesn't sound too wildly off the cards now does it?

Buckle up. Its time to play at Chequers.

Andrea Jenkins said she had had about 400 emails,

I don't normally sink to these levels but I do wonder how articulate and grammatically accurate the emails were?

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
^In appointing a new Brexit Secretary PM needs to find someone

• who backs Chequers
• who she trusts
• who is good enough to pull off a tricky negotiation with Europe
• who won’t further enrage Brexiter MP
• who will keep Tory europhiles on board with next week’s votes...^

One Tory Brexiter MP said last night given this, he thought she might abolish the department and wrap it into Cabinet Office - which would be interesting

If she waits until Sunday evening, after it’s come home, there is always ...

Or is it as I suspect, that th don't do any research at all, but just plot how to crash the country out of the EU?
Yep. There is no ‘non biased’ research going on there.

Stewart Jackson going would be no loss.

Given the list of requirements for DD replacement it needs to be someone that is not just 2 faced but at least 3 if not 4 faced.
Some of the demands are mutually exclusive.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Until we know.... not a bad guess to put Grayling to Dexeeu, but responsibility for negotiations more clearly with Number 10, and Perry to transport (she loves trains) and someone steps up into her job at BEIS

Grayling is a May ally but is a Brexiteer. Every department he touches turns to shit. May also has few other alternatives.

.

James Crisp @JamesCrisp6
EU diplomat on David Davis resignation: "The article 50 negotiation has so far taken up several hundreds of hours in negotiation. Of which minister Davis was here for 4 this year. 1/
"His role has always been more defined in London. So that’s where they will have to look at the consequences. On this end we will just negotiate with whomever the UK government sends here to do so." ENDS

Labour briefing = May falling back on parliamentary arthematic.

She May need Labour support to ensure Brexit goes through and she stays in power...

Love this.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Dom Raab also not a bad bet for the job - btw Suella Braverman is apparently in her office in Dexeeu this morning and has not resigned

Obviously they didn't fancy the long walk down the drive of Chequers, not that they can be blamed for that in this heat. Didn't DD agree to TM's proposals on Friday? That lasted well!

The fact that Mays threat of instantly removing ministerial privileges had to be made public before the meeting speaks volumes (for fans of game theory).

It essentially demonstrated that Theresa May has no power. Because if she did, she would not have allowed that fact to have been known by her "enemies" as a threat. If she had real power, she could have said nothing, and when the first murmur of dissent came, she just says "Don't let the door hit you on the way out" and the first to go would learn - the hard way - what his fate was.

Instead we have this pantomime which - instead of showing "Iron" May, shows "crafty Davies" as he side-steps the bear trap still flicking Vs at May.

It's been a long while since I read my Machiavelli, but I'm pretty certain he counsels against making threats in favour of just acting.

Who else is enjoying living in interesting times ?

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
When the history of #brexit gets written, one question will be whether @DavidDavisMP resignation was inevitable, given the inherent tensions that setting up @DExEUgov in the first place created between him and Olly Robbins who took his secretive MO from May/Home Office. /1
Or whether, had DD been better treated, he could have continued brokering reality to the Brexiteers. But at a basic level, a successful salesman needs to be invested in his product, and be given some sense of ownership of it. Perhaps, given DD views, that was impossible. /2

O-Level History 2059

She May need Labour support to ensure Brexit goes through and she stays in power
What first attracted brexists to staging this during heatwave, a nationalist media shutdown and weaponised sporting event?

It's not the EUs fault the UK was unable to elect a stable and competent government. Moreover, they will be keen as mustard to ensure that the UKs comedy Brexit does not adversely affect the EU 27 any more that is humanly possible. So if they do extend A50, it will purely be for their advantage, not ours.

Personally, I suspect they are quite happy to carry on as is. After all, they have done the necessary work (as far as possible). So the ball is quite squarely in the UKs court.

Henry Zeffman @hzeffman
One speculative thought on new Brexit secretary: May has tried to bring William Hague out of retirement before

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Well that will be world war 3 in the Tory party. Brexiteers think Willy H went native in the FCO. I make no judgement on whether that’s fair: but they think it

Runners and riders for the Brexit Department so far:
Hague, Raab, Grayling and Braverman.

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
May to announce her new Brexit secretary after 9am. One Brexiteer source reckons Grayling or Fox - they have been the most loyal. Gove possible too; but trickier to handle

Ooo Fox is an interesting choice.

Maybe we need Lord Cameron (not the honorific he has in this house) to do the job ? He has one unassailable credential with which he can silence any dissent.

He gave us Brexit. No one can take that away from him (although his return would probably be in the hope that someone would).

The Columnist @Sime0nStylites
Bruno Waterfield says Brussels fallback plan is to extend A50 - legal preparations already in place (LBC).

Claire Phipps @Claire_Phipps 16 minutes ago
"The Brexit department does not actually know whether Suella Braverman has resigned as a Brexit minister or not"

I think I might have a go at writing ‘Brexit the Musical’.I have Helen Mirren in mind to play TM and Hugh Grant to play JRM. I’ m not sure who I’d cast as Bojo - I can’t really see anyone wanting the part.
Any suggestions for the parts of DD and Gove welcome.

I’ m not sure who I’d cast as Bojo - I can’t really see anyone wanting the part.

I think Gerard Depardieu could make the role his own

If you can incorporate an animation, this guy from 'Sing' bears an uncanny resemblance to Bojo.

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
Let's break the usual rules here and think about the EU might respond to the events of Friday to Monday in Brexitlandia... 1/
Policy wise the Chequers 'medium' Brexit doesn't work for the EU, it's not a Free Trade Agreement with Irish border backstop, it's not a close economic relationship with four freedoms etc. Arguably it only just acknowledges the choices 2/
But the EU doesn't want a chaotic or no-deal Brexit, as that makes all the Ireland efforts redundant. So one would assume that particularly with a new Secretary of State there's an opportunity for some intensive dialogue 3/
The key question from the EU will surely be - is this the first step of a process towards EEA, or as far as the PM is willing to go. If towards EEA, what's then the trust building mechanisms that allows this to be delivered. And yes these have to be at political level 4/
If this is as far as the PM is willing to go then the EU's presumed approach would be to focus on the Withdrawal Agreement, see if this can be completed, but prepare contingency like extension, no deal, and crisis Summit in the Autumn. 5/
The new SoS relation with Barnier will be crucial. Robbins can do the tech stuff, but the EU will want to know what is happening at the political level, what is deliverable and what is not. Problem will come if the new SoS is too partisan to be accurate on the politics 6/
As professional negotiators the EU will probably be worried that not everything can be done in time - either the backstop agreement or what makes it unnecessary. There's a lot of detail to work through. UK readiness will be seen in the white paper 7/
Conclusion. The identity of the new SoS is crucial to avoiding crisis in the coming months. They need to be able to build relationships, get detail, and provide the political dimension to talks quickly. And focus on the Commission not Member States 8/ end

Bruno Waterfield @BrunoBrussels
No huge surprise for people here over David Davis resignation
There is some hope in the Brussels corridors that the resignation “clears up the ambiguity” as long as Theresa May can keep her government together
Davis has not played any role in negotiations since March, progressively sidelined since June 2017 over the issue of “sequencing”
An aide to Michel Barnier said a month or so ago that the pair were barely in touch, “not even texting”

Retweets a tweet from last month.
Is it still David Davis you’re negotiating with, I ask a source. Pause. “No.” Pause.

His fate was sealed last September when EU side used European Commission minutes to hang him out to dry - confirming the Oliver Robbins to take over
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/juncker-says-weak-negotiator-davis-is-jeopardising-brexit-talks-2ksg8bdjn
David Davis’s poor negotiation skills are jeopardising Brexit talks, warns Juncker - Sept 7 2017

“Winding up the discussion, the president expressed his concern about the question of the stability and accountability of the UK negotiator and his apparent lack of involvement, which risked jeopardising the success of the negotiations.”
It was noted in Brussels, that the Chequers proposal dropped his “time limited” aspect of shared customs territory that he almost resigned over in early June this year
There is concern here over May’s position & whether her government can survive If the white paper does not emerge on Thursday then that becomes a real worry
If May falls the fallback plan is to extend Article 50, following a British request, delaying Brexit, until new government gets its act together Legal preparations for that plan B are in place

www.ft.com/content/6086dd60-834f-11e8-96dd-fa565ec55929
David Davis’s resignation creates several threats to Theresa May
Departure of Brexit secretary likely to galvanise Brexiter rebellion

Mr Davis’s resignation— accompanied by two junior members of his department — had been anticipated by Number 10 ahead of the Chequers meeting, with contingency plans put in place in case he or Boris Johnson, foreign secretary, quit.

From the article the dangers they talk about:

1. Davis sparks a wave of more resignations, Johnson will be particularly under pressure to go or it will be seen that he is not ideologically commited
2. Davis is new leader to stopping The Turd Way.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
(Un)reality check

A British citizen has been murdered on British soil by a nerve agent, with Russia squarely in the frame in the middle the World Cup and just before Nato summit

And it's not leading the news

Well done Britain

Raise an eyebrow.

Also

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
One political attuned friend writes: “My view for what it’s worth is that we are 180 mins away from the whole thing falling apart. People voted Brexit but what they really wanted was to win the World Cup”