I saw a tweet yesterday about Gove, Hannah and Cars well being distinct from other Brexiteers and a real split now having happened.
Lord Ashcroft @
I understand that Michael Gove was the first Brexiteer to support the plan proposed by the Prime Minister...
Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
The Vote Leave coalition fractures: the Gove-ites were never really reconciled with the IDS-Jenkin-Patersonites. Conflict between these tribes caused the VL rows of Jan 2016.
And they probably won’t be reconciled again after yesterday...
Probably with consequences for Michael Gove’s appeal to Tory MPs
Carswell and Hannan have both made comments in the last 48 hours saying they are happy with the plan. Here are a couple to give you an invite into thinking.
Daniel Hannan @ Danieljhannan
I am more relaxed than some Eurosceptics about regulatory alignment in goods. The prospects for meaningful divergence, at least in the short term, are slight. But why the hell include farm produce? We should be buying from the world, outside the EU's agri-racket.
Douglas Carswell @ Douglascarswell
Those itching to cry “betrayal” ever since June 22, 2016 will cry betrayal. The rest of us should welcome an arrangement that allows incremental divergence.
Biggest danger to Brexit now is not Mrs May. It’s alliance of the irreconcilables on either side who come together and mess it up. One - the Remainiacs- with low calculation, the other in stupidity
Douglas Carswell @ Douglascarswell
What matters now is less the details of the Brexit deal, and more the resolve of HMG in sticking to it. No deal has to be a credible alternative and seen to be one. Too many ministers have been suckered by their civil servants into doing fa to prepare. That has to change now
Three govt departments where personnel need to change to prepare for no deal; Home Office, Treasury, Transport.
Douglas Carswell @ Douglascarswell
This ERG staffers analysis of the Chequers deal is daft. 6f of the deal makes it clear we are able to diverge - and expect less mkt access as we do. Who seriously imagines we want to diverge across the board at 00:01am on the day we depart?
In other words Gove, Hannan and Carswell are in the mindset that if you want to make Brexit work, you have to do it gradually. The most important thing initially is to leave, but a soft exit with few changes is not just preferable but necessary. In order to ensure we do leave, and be held hostage by the EU and remainders we need proper preparations for no deal situation. But they don't really want no deal, unless the alternative is continuity remain. Which they will see as a betrayal. Associate membership of the EU is still not membership of the EU so is fine. The ultimate goal is a gradual stepping away over time. Not needing to do it all on day one.
In fairness, this pragmatic approach is the only one which will actually work and is entirely sensible. Gove deliberately placing himself as distinct from kamikaze Brexiteers is smart on several levels. And I note that Lord Ashcroft's tweet seems more supportive than not.
If it came to it, they would support no deal over continuity remain, but with the added benefit of being able to say "well we have to leave the EU but this wasn't our preferred way of doing it. We aren't the nutters and hard liners". Thus the blame from the fail out goes elsewhere (Johnson and Rees-Smug).
In terms of a leadership challenge, Gove then becomes the acceptable, sensible pragmatic Brexiteers who has considerably more appeal to Remained who have reluantantly supported Brexit.
And I think the Ashcroft tweet significant given his relationship with the Trump and Farage camp.
The calculation is get us out the EU looking mild to Remained then put in your man, who will use (abuse) the Henry VIII powers much like Trump has been stretching the power of the executive in the US. Once we are out every thing is set up very nicely thank you very much, for the stripping of the UK for assets under a cloak of secrecy. So long as continuity remained don't see the inherent danger in all this from Gove as leader.
The interesting point is about which departments Carswell needs personal changes at. Treasury is self explanatory: Hammond and civil service see EU as our ally. Not US. Home Office: Windrush scandal exposes the jobs worth's and political liabilities plus Javid is a big threat to Gove. The weird one is transport: grayling was an ally of May despite being a leaver. But he's the biggest liability in government. But they obviously think there is a bigger problem than just that in there. Does transport cover Dover planning? Do they think the train scandals are a bigger issue to voter intent than Brexit itself? (Given Labour's focus on it, yes. It's not getting as many headlines as it should given how it's directly impacting and therefore influencing voter intent, which in turn is feeding back into Brexit policy position). Agriculture probably would be on the list, but they think they've got that covered as Gove is currently already at DEFRA.
My best guess: expect much more about this split in the leave camp. Gove wants to be seen as distinct and separate from the ERG now. They are toxic. It will look like he is supporting May. He's not. He's setting up for ousting May but getting into a better position to do so. The closer he gets to May, the more you should worry tbh. I think Gove potentially more influential than Johnson for this reason too. May isn't having to fire fight and man manage him. She will listen to him more.
I'm concerned. Gove is getting himself into a strong position, especially since Remain Tories will focus their attention on trying to block Johnson and Smug from being leader allowing Gove something of a free pass to later rounds of the contest.