Got the YouGov raw data.
On the question do you think Theresa May is handling the Salisbury incident well or badly, there is only ONE demographic (Leave/Remain/Male/Female/Age/ABC1/C2DE/Region) in which Badly scored higher than well.
The 18-24 age group.
People who voted Labour in 2017, marginally thought she was handling well rather than badly. What's noteworthy is people who intend to vote Labour next time marginally thought she was handling it badly.
On whether they thought Russia was responsible, Labour Voters from 2017 are rather indecisive and not sure. This is significantly different to LD and Con voters, who were much more firm in their thinking that it was the Russians.
On the Westminster voting intention, I've looked at this week and compared with the previous three weeks. The last three weeks are pretty similar, with slight changes. I've looked at previous weeks before and there hasn't been much going on since January. But this week there is a noticeable difference.
Where Labour seems to have taken the hit, is amongst remainers, amongst men and in the 25-49 and the 50-64 age groups. There is a noticeable tick up of Remainers intending to vote Conservative.
People who voted Labour in 2017, who intend to vote Labour again at the next election is down in the unweighted numbers by 5%. When weighted this goes to 6%. This is the first time this has appeared on the YouGov poll since at least Oct (I've not looked further back). Until now its been a constant level of 2017 Labour voters sticking with Labour.
They don't go to the Conservatives. They either go to other parties, the LDs or Don't intend to vote.
Its not a Lab to Con shift.
Where this jump up in the Conservative vote from Remain voters is coming from is 2017 Liberal Democrats. The last month has seen a significant movement from 2017 LD sticking with the party, and moving to the Cons but this isn't being noticed in the headline figures because they are being replaced by disgruntled Labour voters turning Yellow.
Leave voters seem to have a slight uptick in intending not to vote at all. (I guess that moving to the LDs if you are Labour and hate Corbyn, isn't really an option).
There is an increase in the unweighted figures of 18 - 24 year olds who intend to vote Labour, so Corbyn is obviously really hitting with them. However this isn't showing at all in the weighted figures. So the numbers must be small here. In other words, Corbyn seems to have alienated a significant number from other groups in return for very nothing.
There's slightly more movement away from Labour in the North and Scotland, but its only marginal. London also hasn't like Labour in the last week. But generally this shift is repeated across the country and there's no gains anywhere for Labour.
In other words, it seems that Salisbury incident seems to be pushing voters to the right away from Corbyn across the board. Its created more polarisation. Its not going to help Labour even if they pick up the youngest voters, as there simply aren't enough of them.
Student politics indeed.
Of course, this is a single week. Whether this continues to be the shape of future polls remains to be seen. The thing that did really surprise me was that shift from the LDs to the Cons though, as that seems to have been a gradual shift over the last 4 weeks and hasn't been just this week. And that's the thing to keep an eye on imo.
The centre and the right of Labour do not like what is going on in Labour and they fear it more than Brexit by the look of it.
(I am not surprised in the slightest as it does reflect where I with it, but its interesting to see appearing in the figures. I didn't expect to 'see' it and I certainly didn't expect to see how its apparently manifested).
I can see why the Far Left is really into conspiracy theories on this one, rather that then examine their own behaviour and how its alienating the centre - and was doing so BEFORE Salisbury.