Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?

[RedToothBrush]

The next week or so appears to be yet another crunch point (not that any of these crunch points have actually resolved anything so far).

The EU is set to outline the plan for Ireland. Which everyone thought had already been outlined and agreed already. And it had been admitted was legally binding.

Except apparently we don't want to do that, and we are now crying about how the EU want to break up Britain (nothing to do with England wanting to leave the EU and Scotland and NI wanting to stay in it of course).

Jeremy Corbyn has now apparently decided that the customs union is a good idea. David Davis and Liam Fox have responded by saying that this would stop us making our own trade deals. Yes this has obviously stopped Turkey, and why aren't we doing as much trade with China etc as Germany anyway? A vote in the HoC looms before Easter. Will Tory rebels support.

Will Jeremy Corbyn bow to pressure over the single market too? The customs union alone does not stop the border issue in Ireland. Nor does it stop ridiculous queues at Dover. I'm not sure Corbyn is one for listening though. He's got a whiff of power and democracy and reality is just a hindrance to utopia.

As for the Great Repeal Bill. Word has it, its not going too clever in the HoL. The conservatives had something of a show of strength with an unusual number turning up for the debate. But few on the backbenches were willing to speak in favour of...

It all feels like we are making no progress at all. We are still bleating on about cherry picked deals as if this is a negotiation. Its not.

Does anyone know when the EU are expected to give a detailed, formal response to Theresa May's speech ?

How do you give a detailed response to waffle? It's like trying to nail jelly to a wall

I think that they signalled their response both in advance and just after her speech on Thursday and Friday with the "no cherry picking", "no three baskets" and the inability to have frictionless trade ( friction was an inevitable side effect of Brexit, by nature ) comments from Tusk, Barnier and Verhofstadt in quick succession.

I think the next formal response will be either just in advance of the next round of negotiations or at the end of that week (not sure when that is).

I think the next formal response will be either just in advance of the next round of negotiations

As far as I am aware, technically the first phase has yet to be agreed.

So nothing to move onto yet ????

three day's worth of snow and supermarkets run out of food. It ought to be a warning for those Brexiters who think that crashing out of the EU is all going to be hunky dory.

"By round of negotiations" I mean the monthly meetings where Barnier's team turns up and explains yet again "the EU principles" and therefore its negotiating position to David Davis and he comes along unprepared and grins inanely

whatever dd is taking, I want it. sounds like bliss

Peregrina I was saying exactly the same thing to DH during a desolate walk around Sainsbury's this afternoon. Madness.

Hope this link works - quite entertaining Twitter thread from Steve Analyst: "Does the UK hold all the cards?"

twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/970341839948697600

Just seen in The Guardian that the EU will be publishing draft guidelines on Tuesday, but will be leaving them as vague as possible in order to force Theresa May to explain exactly what she wants.

I too have been saying to dh and another friend of ours (who has been involved with the Law Society of Scotland's analysis of the impact and work required): that if this was what a few days of bad weather does, heaven help us when the ports are backed up with customs clearance He has also been doing some work with the FFA and they are shitting themselves at the lack of preparation

We've been living off the freezer and the larder - since last Tuesday but it just goes to show that even prepping (and I had been increasing my stores) only lasts a short period

I have been able to make my own bread as I've been keeping a sour dough starter alive for over 2 years now

Currently have a pheasant roasting in the oven (the other bird from the brace that I'd bought for Christmas, which had been in the freezer): how pretentious is that?

But poor ds is going to have to have his burger (he's not keen on pheasant and it means we can stretch it to the three adults our lawyer friend is joining us for dinner ) - also from the freezer - without chips as I have run out : I've offered him pasta rather than the celeriac dauphinoise that is also in the oven.

Tee hee
Some things about where I live I hate, but being able to walk to a big supermarket is a real bonus
But yes - the shops will still be empty tomorrow (even though both Tesco and Lidl have distribution centres near here)
and most consumers have no real idea how just-in-time delivery works

Even fewer understand the Just-In-Time process for production lines in manufacturing industry

and how many factories will be scuppered by automatic non-tariff barriers, which will apply one minute after the UK becomes a 3rd country

Bigchoc
Even fewer understand the Just-In-Time process for production lines in manufacturing industry
Don't I know it
When I worked in customs clearance in Dover - pre 92 - twice a week the Ford Panic Van came in
it was the REALLY urgent parts that they needed for Dagenham
they used to bring it in at odd times to avoid the queues
and even then we knew that if it got stopped, so would the Ford plant ....

One day it came in at the same time as a 100 part groupage of flowers from Holland

we had two sets of suppliers screaming down the phones at us to do theirs first
but actually the Russian guy with the KGB man in the corner of the office got done first

I have been forlornly hoping that, behind the scenes, there was at least planning for upgrading UK ports to cope with being a 3rd country.

Worryingly in RNorth's blog today, http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86789

senior civil servant JDD posts:

"As we are supposed to be gearing up for leaving the EU I would just like to point out the following:

By now we should be having friendly talks with all the EU RoRo ports that UK ferries use.
Reason?
They need to build infrastructure, BIPs etc and the only way of ensuring this is for us, the UK, to pay for the extra costs

We haven't even talked, yet let alone made an overture on these additional costs

This is the most serious part of exit without these facilities trade will not just slow, it may cease

Everytime this point is raised we are told that there is still plenty of time
There isn't"

My next door neighbour from when I lived in Dover is on FB with me.
He still has mates in the docks.
The clearance sheds have been built on - there is no land to build new ones.
The Channel Tunnel/s never had clearance sheds
Ramsgate built on theirs years ago.

The old clearance pen held around 500 lorries inside the docks
The clearance agents occupied four office blocks
All gone and space used for other things

We can't even just wave through imported components from the EU - if there was some way of keeping one "lane" open for urgent stuff:

or under WTO rules, we would have to wave through components from every non-EU WTO member

We really, really need an SM+ deal to avoid disaster

I suppose the infrastructure would have to be further inland and then the checked goods taken to the ports in sealed lorries - only possible for Approved Traders

Similar system to what has been suggested for RoI goods exported to the E27 via the UK overland - after Brexit

That system could be used for exports to French ports - maybe with French customs staff, since they don't seem willing / able to build infrastructure at their end -

as well as imports to the UK , which would have to be in sealed lorries until they reach the new inland infrastructure

We have to avoid a bottleneck at the ports themselves
Maybe we should all Email our port suggestions to DexEU, since they don't seem to be thinking about this at all.

The it goes the more I’m thinking it’s all screen and mirrors to try and scare the EU into giving the U.K. more than it should/wants.
I just cannot fantôm any government taking such a huge risk like this.

That or they are actually completely crazy and would be happy to go with WTO option except that, when itnwill come it, it will look so bad and scary that they will back down and take whatever the EU will be proposing.

Some people, in the RL world, end up in prison as a consequence of their incompetence. Maybe that should be applied to politicans too....

TBH Calais still has lots of land to build clearance infrastructure back up
and T2 export forms are quick
its the C88 import process that takes time
Lorries going out = quick
Lorries coming in (when duty and VAT are being collected) = slow

AgnesSkinner Great thread. Should be made into a radio segment and played on 'Today' programme on R4. Would educate and entertain. TalkinPeace Yikes.
end up in prison as a consequence of their incompetence
Scott Enquiry in the olden days, seemed to attempt to hold truth to power but now that the referendum result is a holy icon, things seem to have changed.
Like you all have said, 48 hours of snow is a good indicator of what the crash out will be like. Hungry.

A lot of NI (so UK) goods also go down through Ireland and over to Wales from Dublin. Not just goods from Ireland. I wonder what happens if there are issues with hauliers going across the British land bridge. I don't know how feasible it is for RoRo ports to be developed in Waterford/Cork to avoid the land bridge. I hope tit for tat stuff doesn't happen.

I was thinking about Trump starting a trade war. Putin makes shapes about how Russia could nuke Florida. And what does Trump do? He picks a fight with the EU.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43248794

Supply chain issues .....
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-43278380
Cos that is the bit that bugs me the most
its the physical movement of the stuff that people are used to having
and it will be the poorest who suffer most

Are the Brexiters - and the govt - so confident because they are just using false data ?

FALSE FIGURES: Ian Duncan Smith - random number generation ?
On Andrew Marr and reported in Express, so seen by millions

"Up until 2015 which was the last year before we actually voted to leave, the EU did 7.7 trillion dollars of trade.
Countries like Switzerland and Singapore did way more."
< Utter rubbish >

"I think Switzerland did nearly 40 trillion and Singapore did nearly 50 trillion more.
< their exports are in billions, not trillions
the gross WORLD product in 2016 was only $75 trillion - much less than he quotes for just those 2 countries trade >

"And that shows you big isn’t always necessarily powerful."
**

Exports in 2017
Switzerland: CHF 220 billion, about $ 235 billion
https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/exports
Singapore: 43 billion SGD, about $ 33 billion
https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/exports

IDS has confused trillions with billions and still got his sums wrong
also Switzerland exports about 8 X more than Singapore.