Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?

[RedToothBrush]

The next week or so appears to be yet another crunch point (not that any of these crunch points have actually resolved anything so far).

The EU is set to outline the plan for Ireland. Which everyone thought had already been outlined and agreed already. And it had been admitted was legally binding.

Except apparently we don't want to do that, and we are now crying about how the EU want to break up Britain (nothing to do with England wanting to leave the EU and Scotland and NI wanting to stay in it of course).

Jeremy Corbyn has now apparently decided that the customs union is a good idea. David Davis and Liam Fox have responded by saying that this would stop us making our own trade deals. Yes this has obviously stopped Turkey, and why aren't we doing as much trade with China etc as Germany anyway? A vote in the HoC looms before Easter. Will Tory rebels support.

Will Jeremy Corbyn bow to pressure over the single market too? The customs union alone does not stop the border issue in Ireland. Nor does it stop ridiculous queues at Dover. I'm not sure Corbyn is one for listening though. He's got a whiff of power and democracy and reality is just a hindrance to utopia.

As for the Great Repeal Bill. Word has it, its not going too clever in the HoL. The conservatives had something of a show of strength with an unusual number turning up for the debate. But few on the backbenches were willing to speak in favour of...

It all feels like we are making no progress at all. We are still bleating on about cherry picked deals as if this is a negotiation. Its not.

gives as an example, Switzerland

it's almost as if she read the Brexit Arms thread where I specifically warned against pointing to Switzerland as an example (since Switzerland was eventually forced to accept ECJ oversight despite a 51% referendum result ...)

Stephen Kinnock points out:

Gaping hole in PM #Brexit speech: what discussions had with EU RE UK becoming associate member of agencies? Many agencies have NO provision for 3rd country participation (inc banking & medicine ones)
Unclear is enough time to make necessary governance changes. Too little too late.

Some agencies have observer status for countries wishing to accede, which wouldn't apply to a country wishing to leave.

Switzerland has guillotine clauses in its EU treaties - renege on one part of one treaty and the whole lot are nullified. That’s why the Swiss kept freedom of movement - reneging on that element would have been disastrous.

the most extreme ultra-remain loonies.

This is a very odd thing to write. It's not as if Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry are demanding Schengen, the euro, changing to kmph and putting all our road signs in French.

How on earth have we got to the point where simply wanting the status to remain quo makes you an extreme ultra loony?

(since Switzerland was eventually forced to accept ECJ oversight despite a 51% referendum result ...)

And indeed, I recall a much earlier Brexit Arms thread from a year or more ago, crowing about how the Swiss Referendum said No to FoM, and how the EU would have to back down on this. When the EU didn't, the Brexit Arms crowd were strangely silent.

Let's play "Brexiteers" for a moment, and look for the upsides (for remainers) here. Comments in []

1. First public assertion by May that "things will change [not necessarily for the better]"

2. Clarion headline from the BBC that there are some "Hard facts for both sides [is this a first time the BBC have acknowledged a negative from a Brexiteer ?]

3. Blue passports so 2017

The EU may just put Brexit on the back burner anyway. Seems Trump may need more attention ...

I agree Icanreachthepretzels - I complained to dh about the "Terrific speech from May. Will infuriate the hardest moonbat Brexiteers and the most extreme ultra-remain loonies." comment from Iain Martin.

Since when was wanting the common sense status quo "an extreme loonie" position? and before anyone states the obvious, I don't think any Remainer/pro EU person has ever said the EU is perfect. All organisations should continuously review their operating procedures

Since when was wanting the common sense status quo "an extreme loonie" position?
It just keeps getting worse doesn't it?
Trying to equate perfectly rational people who simply don't want to leave the EU with the likes of JRM and his cabal - pretending they are both as extreme as each other but on opposing ends - would be laughable if it wasn't so serious.
That our public discourse has been allowed to move so far away from reality is deeply disturbing.

I googled Iain martin - he voted leave - and his extreme bias is showing.

I suspect that Iain Martin is trying to be a professional controversialist in the mould of Rod Liddle . Thank God we have Ian Dunt.

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
It’s an open relationship not a marriage, where we will be mutually incentivised to be fairly faithful, but not legally or religiously bound to be wholly so. #roadtobrexit

professional controversialist in the mould of Rod Liddle

(very obscure reference)

Give me a foodstuff, and a part of Rod Liddle, and I can make it funny ....

Rod Liddle with a kumquat on his shoulder ...

It’s an open relationship not a marriage, where we will be mutually incentivised to be fairly faithful, but not legally or religiously bound to be wholly so

....in which case, frictionless borders are an impossibility. As is maintaining the GFA

Is it really that difficult to grasp?

Anna Soubry MP
@Anna_Soubry
In her honest & conciliatory speech @theresa_may has set out the sort of #Brexit deal she wants & in so doing has rejected #HardBrexit. The PM was frank about how complicated & costly Brexit will be. Even if the PM achieves that deal we won’t be as well off as we are now.
PM’s problem now is 1. Will her #Brexit deal even get off the blocks given EUs clear stance that we won’t get an extensive bespoke deal? 2. Will she keep the #HardBrexiteers on board or will they seek to oust her for a leader who will deliver their no deal/WTO Brexit?
Leave voters will listen to PMs wise words on the complexity and cost of #Brexit & increasingly realise they’ve been sold a pup. It doesn’t have to be this way and people must be entitled to change their minds #FinalSay

I can't help thinking that Theresa May could and should have put forward these proposals a year ago, before invoking A50. She might then have found out which agencies it would have been possible to pay to opt into. I can see that EU Defence Agencies might be willing to see us pay to join. Would the EMA necessarily do the same? What is in it for them?

Oops, just posted something in Brexit Arms by mistake!! Must not do that again!

2. Will she keep the #HardBrexiteers on board or will they seek to oust her for a leader who will deliver their no deal/WTO Brexit?

My feeling is that people like BoJo and Gove know that they won't be able to deliver. Leasdom probably thinks she could, as does J R-M but I think both would come unstuck very quickly.

I see your Rod Liddle quote, DGR, and raise you: "You can't even have an electric fire in the bath in case the queers see it and it upsets them."

Leave voters will listen to PMs wise words on the complexity and cost of #Brexit & increasingly realise they’ve been sold a pup.

That is true.

Brexiteers won't though.

lalalonglegs

I think it means we’re not legally compelled to adopt Eu laws as our own but that we inevitably will otherwise we’d suffer. The “not legally obliged to” refers to being in the single market or customs union, but to avoid a hard border, we would choose to pass Eu laws into ours.

But who is going to certify that our laws and the EU ones are the same? Or what if there is a time lag?

You’d have to ask TM that. I think this SMINO and CUINO is what she tried to set out in her speech, but as I say, it’s all a pile of wank.

But! I’d say it’s maybe significant not because it’s deliverable but because the ideology behind it is that we end up adopting Eu laws, which is an anathema to the frothers.

But the sad thing is that the UK has shown itself to be so untrustworthy (I present as evidence DD's comments after the hard-won NI compromise which allowed discussions to move to Phase 2, together with BoJo's recent comments), would any other country believe its promises to align laws/standards/regulations?

Hence the need for customs checks going forwards. Because the EU knows it takes time to set up such things (both infrastructure and staffing) and it won't know from one PM to the next (let along one election to the next ) when or if the UK will choose to mirror regulations.

But the sad thing is that the UK has shown itself to be so untrustworthy

As a Frenchman once observed, the reason the sun doesn't set on the British Empire is that God wouldn't trust an Englishman in the dark.

I note the specific English too ...