Westministenders: Groundhog Day

[RedToothBrush]

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

I think time is running out for the fence-sitting strategy

Before the May elections ?

Thanks everyone for your thoughts on Labour's Brexit position. And I agree cat, time is running out for fence sitting. I want to vote Labour, but their weak policy on Remain/Leave, plus a bad feeling about their feminist credentials (which I've had since 2016 when Corbyn installed older men to all 5 senior shadow cabinet positions) is putting me off. So it's Lib Dem for me in the local elections.

But here's Emily Thornberry on Peston, easing herself a centimetre towards a compromise.

mobile.twitter.com/pestononsunday/status/965183884353667072

It's going to be interesting, isn't it, DG?

My feeling is that there will be no movement prior to the May elections. If it hurts Labour in those, it will be clear that they were too slow ...

Will it hurt them, though?

I realise I absolutely have no idea about this one. I usually have an opinion by this point, based on what I hear people saying, and what I read ... but this time ... no clue.

Joyfully for me when it comes to voting we have a stark Tory/LD split with labour barely getting the crumbs from the table, so I will always vote LD while I live here baring some sort of miracle on the labour side or absolutely disaster on the LD side.

I do agree that pressure is building for Labour. The support within the party for a remain stance really needs to shift thinking at the top or Corbyn is going to find himself in big trouble as his young supporters become disillusioned (and they will). Now if I was Corbyn I would put it to a membership vote and then he can claim loudly to be responding to the 'will of the people' and challenge the Tories to do the same and allow a second referendum.

Yes, putting it to the membership to vote is a good idea Bigly. The Tories won't be able to decry that because they have banged on about 'The Will of the People'.

I'm increasingly baffled as to why this - obvious - move isn't being undertaken.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

Baffling. Frustrating. Deeply troubling.

It will also be a lot harder for the press to shout 'Corbyn the traitor' when he is reluctantly responding to 70% of his members wanting remain (not that this will stop them, of course).

Yes Labour can sit back and watch the Tories self-destruct over Brexit, but mustn't lose sight of the fact that they may be drastically losing credibility - and credit - themselves, at the same time.

I've just been listening to Alastair Campbell being interviewed been to the unspun recording, was hilarious, he was saying much the same about corbyn and the Labour leadership needing to actually come out with a stance on brexit. Very angry about northern Ireland and the ignorance of the peace process and how it's probably going to be harmed.

My personal view is that it may take a pasting in local elections for them to realise this. And I'm not sure just what would qualify for that in their book.

Hester that's oddly what Alastair Campbell just said too. They're waiting for the Tories to self destruct. But whether there's merit in that approach is a gamble.

Dobby this article today by Alastair Campbell contains lots of the points posters have made on here. Also it encapsulates the reasons for my current hesitation about Labour.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alastair-campbells-challenge-to-mcdonnell-1-5396176

I understand the strategy of giving a govt enough rope to hang themselves

However, a transition is more likely than not, in which the only negative effects will be a slow seepage of jobs out of the UK, nothing dramatic

• that transition could easily be sold as a successful Brexit and enable them to win a late 2020 GE

(which JC won't oppose them calling)

With the overwhelmingly pro-Brexit media, including the BBC,
the Tories are likely to escape blame for a recession, even after transition,
so long as the planes keep flying and the supermarket shelves are reasonably full - i.e. the most basic minimum deal.

So long as the Tories keep the home-owners happy by avoiding a price crash, they could manage narrow wins in the next 2 GEs
or perpetual de facto coalition with the DUP.

That would leave UK public services in a state from which there is no coming back, with much lower tax receipts available from business

Kofa my mother, who will turn 85 this year, voted Yes with visions of granny (Cumann na mBan) and grandad (IRA and lifelong Republican) turning in their grave (over which a three gun salute was fired at grandad's funeral). She thought of my dad too, who would have voted No. She had a feeling he would have voted No early and often, actually, had he been alive.

I should say British public services
That situation would leave NI receiving perpetual bungs for its own services, paid for by mainland British taxpayers

NI jobs are already 70% public sector iirc, subsidised by £12 billion p.a. - all to subsidise those 1 million Unionists
Funny how Tories have never minded those subsidies, but cut ruthlessly on the mainland when it's just the poor / Labour voters hit

I love this from the Alistair Campbell article above:

I know why the Farages and Rees-Moggs, the Murdochs and the Dacres, want a hard Brexit. Because they are very right wing and they want a low tax, low regulation, public service shredding, finger-licking chlorinated chicken State. In doing so little to oppose them, Labour are facilitating that vision. Cameron the father of Brexit; May the mother; Corbyn the midwife.

Typical, watch an interesting interview and it's all in print already . I got to hear about the porn though, in a non Damien Green way.

Talking of porn, did anyone pick up the Gavin Barwell porn story?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/14/theresa-mays-chief-staff-apologises-clicking-pornographic-tweet/
Tries desperately not to find a tabloid version. Just in case.

I can seriously recommend you don't pick up this flu bug in case you were tempted. The main elements have gone, but it still sucks

NI jobs are already 70% public sector iirc, subsidised by £12 billion p.a. - all to subsidise those 1 million Unionists

While it’s true NI has a higher ratio of public sector workers, I’m pretty sure it is nowhere near 70%. I thought it was about a third, but it seems to be more like 25%:

“Northern Ireland (25.2%), Scotland (21.3%) and Wales (20.8%) showed the highest public sector employment proportions.

At March 2016, the North East (20.3%) remains the English region with the highest public sector employment proportion. London (14.3%) had the lowest proportion.”

From: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/bulletins/publicsectoremployment/march2016

Guy Verhofstadt getting stuck into commenting on UK politics:

There will be “a crisis in British politics” if MPs vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the European Parliament‘s chief Brexit negotiator has warned. On the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Guy Verhofstadt went on to predict such a defeat could lead Britain to elect a new government with a different position on Brexit.

And I get so annoyed when TM speaks about what people in the UK want, as if we all want the same thing.

Mr Verhofstadt’s remarks come as the Prime Minister spoke to Western leaders and officials in Munich to set out the Government’s vision for Britain outside the EU. The loudest applause during her appearance came when the event’s organiser, German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, said: ”Things would be so much easier if you stayed. "But the Prime Minister was adamant: “We are leaving the EU and there is no question of a second referendum or going back, and I think that’s important,” she told the Munich Security Conference. “People in the UK feel very strongly that if we take a decision, then governments should turn not round and say no you got that wrong.”

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-guy-verhofstadt-theresa-may-crisis-britain-marr-a8216226.html%3famp

Interesting article about working as a troll ( I still think 'troll' sounds charming like a Moomin story)
www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/17/a-former-russian-troll-speaks-it-was-like-being-in-orwells-world/?utm_term=.7fec8d7a95ff

Following Hanan's comments on the GFA, and Gove has made even stronger comments, I was wondering about Gove's sectarian affinities:
Anglican Theresa May is too Catholic to lead Britain, says Michael Gove
inews.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-catholic-lead-britain-says-michael-gove/

We are leaving the EU and there is no question of a second referendum or going back, and I think that’s important

I really think Theresa May is going to have egg on her face over that statement.

People in the UK feel very strongly that if we take a decision, then governments should turn not round and say no you got that wrong

She does have a point there. I have some family members who were passionately remain but now think the democratic process must be followed and that the German car manufacturers will come to our rescue. It's up to the Opposition to make a stand and they need to do it soon before too much damage is done.

The price of peace: 78p per week.

@Andrew_Adonis
BREXIT & IRELAND: Coordinated effort by Brexiters & DUP seems to be underway to end Good Friday Agreement. See statements by Arlene, Daniel Hannan & Owen Paterson (an ex NI Secretary!). This really is playing with fire.

I really don’t understand how people can continue to go along with the narrative that there was a vote so it must be respected, in the face of mounting evidence that there was interference. At the very least there was an outrageous bait and switch. No shame in revisiting now we know more about how it is panning out.

there was a vote so it must be respected

We've had lots of votes over the years. We've also had lots of re votes over the years. Why else have a general election only five years after "the people speaking" ?

Incidentally, we've also had votes that don't get respected. Boaty McBoatface springs to mind.