Is anyone actually pleased with the way things are going so far?

[Bearbehind]

I appreciate Remainers aren’t going to be happy with things but I’m really struggling to see how anyone can be pleased with the unbelievable mess this situation is.

I can literally hear TM repeating the words ‘make me an offer’ in her robotic mantra as is reported here

Why haven’t we come up with any robust plans yet?

Why can’t we state what we want in more detail than ‘a deep and special relationship’?

Why are we still working on the premise we can have our cake and eat it?

Actually I think it's going about as well as it possibly could and TM is doing as good a job as anybody could with such a shit idea.
Anybody who thought is was all going to be great is an idiot. I haven't heard a single workable solution to the Irish boarder issue and that's because there isn't one. Nobody has even dared think about Gibraltar yet and the economy is predicted to suffer under every Brexit scenario studied (I know, I know, Leavers don't do experts).

Did you think it would be going better than this Bear?

I'm a remainer and I'm quite pleased, because I am now >90% certain that brexit isn't really going to happen at any point in the next decade - if it does it'll be Brexit in name only ie continued SM and CU membership. Because I do not live in the UK, this works fine for me, since it means my right to live in the EU does not change. I would be less happy if I were a UK taxpayer.

There are two reasons why I think this is the only feasible outcome.

1. The Irish border. The Irish border question cannot be resolved unless the UK remains in the customs union.

1. Infrastructure. Any Brexit that requires new customs infrastructure at ports will require a lead time of several years.

I'll apply for my French citizenship when the compulsory purchases in the Dover area start happening.

Did you think it would be going better than this Bear?

Sadly not kenndodd, like you, I appreciate you can't polish a turd.

I also agree with misti that we are heading for BINO which, whilst the least worst option, it does beg the question- what was the point?

I've been trying to discuss the fact that BINO is the only feasible option with Leavers for weeks but they're resolutely refusing to provide any argument or evidence to the contrary.

I've been trying to discuss the fact that BINO is the only feasible option with Leavers for weeks but they're resolutely refusing to provide any argument or evidence to the contrary.

Tbh I don't really understand the point of having a conversation about Brexit with someone who, nearly two years after the vote, still doesn't understand the implications of leaving the customs union.

misti it's because I'm stupidly thinking that the penny must drop soon.

But it's not going to happen until BINO is a done deal, then it'll be the nasty EU's fault for not letting us have our own way.

That penny is not subject to the same laws of gravity as you and I, and will continue to levitate in blissful midair ignorance whatever you say or do.

Trying to have a discussion with hard core Brexiteers is like trying to argue with an Evangelical Christian.
If you ask them why a benevolent God allows 200,000 people to die in a tsunami on Christmas Day or how they account for evil, they will tie themselves in knots and basically tell you that ‘God is great’.
Anyone who thinks that things are going well is deluding themselves.
The Leave campaign gave the impression that we would be out within a week.
The referendum was 19 months ago and, from where I’m standing, we’re no further forward.
If anyone seriously believes that things are going well, I dread to think what their vision of things going badly would be.

You are wrong, MsHoolies . We are much further forward, we will be getting blue passports.

Oh of course, silly me, I had forgotten about that. Things are going swimmingly

So are we placing bets on how long it takes TM to concede she has to back down on FOM during the transition period?

It’s only a matter of time.

I personally cannot wait until the government comes out with what it wants. Finally, oh yes then finally we'll have a plan. Once a plan is announced it can debated. This is what the leave campaign did on purpose - leave out the details of a plan - because they knew no one would vote for anything specific. TM has taken that strategy forward and so far only added: FTA and special deal on CM - 18 months after the vote to leave. Piss poor when you view it in those terms....but what is she to do? Any 'plan' will be unpopular, not only in her hybrid cabinet but in the country at large. Bring on the plan, I say!

bring on the plan. I agree with this, but at the same time, I think our democracy is in a very precarious state right now. And the weaker TM looks, the more likely it is that we will have a leadership challenge.

Brexiteers like to bang on about parliamentary sovereignty and about making our own decisions, but the bottom line is that just 1.6% of the population bother to be members of a political party - a staggering increase from the 0.8% back in 2013.

There are just 149,000 conservative party members. Their average age is 72. 69% of their age group support leaving the EU across the country as a whole, and I am going to hazard a guess that among 72+ year old Conservative party members, the percentage in support of a hard brexit is very high.

In our so called parliamentary democracy, this tiny and unrepresentative group of elderly, reactionary people will decide on the next leader of the conservative party and hence the next PM. A challenge to May, as the weakness of her negotiating position becomes more apparent will result, not in a general election but rather in a replacement leader of their choosing. The only way of avoiding this is if conservative MPs manage to organise it among themselves so that one MP stands, in which case they can keep the members out. Otherwise, the real risk is that a hard-Brexit supporting prime minister will be foisted on the rest of us.

Scratch the surface, and political decision-making in this country, while notionally "democratic", is actually a dangerous, distorted and wholly unrepresentative farce.

Here's a nice searchable database of 700odd (actually 759) international agreements we will lose on Brexit day. As the FT puts it, we'll have to renegotiate many of these just to stand still

ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database/

A Welsh delegate to the last Tory conference was incidentally correct when he took the stage and affectionately proclaimed:

"We are going to make Breakfast a success!"

We're heading nicely towards the softest of soft brexits with little change from the status quo.

Not to the liking of the foaming-at-the-mouth leavers, but that doesn't bother me one little bit.

we'll have to renegotiate many of these just to stand still

Not to suggest Bill Paxman would ever come remotely close to being a Brexiter but this seems like a likely government response to this situation:

It's complete shit.
My dh, who is normally laid back about most things, thinks JRM is a dangerous man and maybe we need to think about our options.

Brexit in name only... 1. The Irish border. The Irish border question cannot be resolved unless the UK remains in the customs union.

2. Infrastructure. Any Brexit that requires new customs infrastructure at ports will require a lead time of several years.

Totally agree with this. The Irish border question is a circle that cannot be squared. And the infrastructure issue is just a potential nightmare of border security and goods and services shortages.

It still staggers me that Leavers are simply ignoring those 2 points michael

I do wonder when the lightbulb moment will be.

Bear, I don't think there will be one. I think what it comes down to is if and when people start losing their jobs and are explicitly told it's because of Brexit. I mean 'ordinary' people, for want of a better word –people who work in car plants etc, not bankers or the 'metropolitan elite' whose make-up includes citizens of other EU countries.

I suspect you're right michael even when it gets tough I think Leavers will just blame the EU for not letting us leave on our terms.

It's the ultimate scapegoat.

Yes I'm pretty pleased. This mess we're seeing in the short term is just the inevitable consequence of power flowing back into institutions long since denuded of it. Arguments about executive over-reach, devolution, even the Irish border aren't caused by Brexit and they're not new; they've simply been held in stasis by a settlement that has primarily benefitted an urban, educated elite. If we're having to grapple with them now - good. About time. Maybe we can find a more satisfactory arrangement for everyone. At the very least we can find a more accountable one.

Added to which there's the distinct possibility the Lords will entirely overstep their constitutional mandate and we can have a jolly good go at reforming them, too. Bring it on!

This mess we're seeing in the short term is just the inevitable consequence of power flowing back into institutions long since denuded of it

PMSL

That was the award for the most deluded comment I've read since the vote.

^^ Wins not was