Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

This is a VERY interesting twitter thread about Bregret.

Chris Hanretty @ chrishanretty
In September last year I said that public opinion on Brexit wasn't changing fast enough so make exiting Brexit politically feasible
medium.com/@chrishanretty/exiting-brexit-3902558a3fdb
I still think that's true, but with more data we can see that the pace at which public opinion is changing has itself changed (2/n)
For the first 8/9 months, there was no change: since then, % of ppl who think Brexit was right, minus the % of ppl who think Brexit was wrong, has been slipping at 3/5ths of a percentage point per month (3/n)

Weird, lala. It sends me to a Telegraph article on the Ashcroft report. Not only am I suboptimal with technology but I actually work some kind of anti-technology magic!

Argh! And now tried it for second time and it's sending me to Guardian.

Sorry. Don;t know what to do about that!

Wrt JJ Patrick's idea about Ireland and Russia - Ireland has already dealt with a serious attempt to manipulate the electorate, way back at the time of the first referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

At that time, Irish millionaire Declan Ganley poured millions of his own Euros (apparently all his own anyway) into a No campaign. For his efforts he was subsequently given red carpet treatment by his friends in high places in the military industrial establishment in the US. His telecom company is now a US defence contractor. A former head of the CIA, James Woolsey, is a director.

The US is the most likely source of antiEU inspiration and funds and Psy ops of the sort Cambridge Analytics specialises in, in the UK and potentially in Ireland and elsewhere. (Though Ireland is overwhelmingly pro EU and this is not likely to change). It is 100 percent in the interests of the US to stop the further integration of Europe and the possible ditching of both NATO and American influence in European foreign policy, trade policy and military policy that would accompany that.

cat I get the schools art article too. But it is quite interesting!

Perhaps firefighters delivering dinners courtesy of Brexit Carillion collapse might focus minds Bigly

Interesting thread red Groups are appearing all over the country. Northampton for example.

HOL discussion of 'brexit' on now; some good speeches.
www.bbc.co.uk/tv/bbcparliament?playerOpen=true

Let me try:

Ashcroft's huge survey^ on political opinions since the 2017 GE^

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/01/lord-ashcroft-there-are-more-rainy-days-than-sunny-days-my-new-year-focus-groups.html

Thank you, Big .

Interesting about the US, math - isn't that just the hard right though ?

In favour of British membership of the EU are Obama - of course - the Clintons and any Democrats whose comments have been reported here.
It used to be mainstream GOP policy too, supporting a stronger EU to strengthen Europe and its defence

The US (and UK) pushed hard for the East European countries to be allowed to join the EU asap

An artist has used a projector to beam the word "shithole" onto a Trump hotel in Washington
(after his insult to African countries)

Enjoy the video of it:

https://www.indy100.com/article/donald-trump-us-president-hotel-washington-projection-robin-bell-viral-video-8158226?utmsource=indy&utmmmedium=top5&utmcampaign=i100

And Der Spiegel has piled in this with this Trump cover
The caption is German for "In the age of Fire and Fury" - referring to Michael Wolff's book about his administration

They also had an article (English) "In the Blight House" which takes aim at his stupidity / mental incapacity:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/donald-trump-white-house-goes-from-bad-to-worse-a-1187580.html

Blithering Boris

Footage has emerged of Boris Johnson 3 years ago categorically stating he would vote to stay in the European single market – contradicting his recent stance on the issue during the referendum campaign.

"I'd vote to stay in the single market. I'm in favour of the single market," he told Sky News. "

Now Johnson says the benefits of the European single market are 'wildly overstated'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-boris-johnson-brexit-support-single-market-leave-european-union-video-a7089991.html

(FT paywall) EU tightens draft instructions to Barnier for transition deal

https://www.ft.com/content/595c99a4-fa0f-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167

The EU has toughened its conditions for a post-Brexit transition deal for the UK,
demanding that Britain abide by stricter terms on immigration,
external trade agreements
and fishing rights
for nearly two years after it leaves the bloc.

The revised “directives” drawn up by EU member states for Michel Barnier, Brussels’ chief negotiator,
complicate the talks by giving him more precise instructions on several politically sensitive topics for the UK, according to a draft seen by the Financial Times.

These include extending free movement rights and a special status to all EU citizens arriving before the final day of the transition at the end of 2020.

It also requires that British ministers seek “authorisation” from Brussels in order to continue benefiting from EU trade deals that it would otherwise fall out of on Brexit day.

David Davis, Brexit secretary, declined to comment.
…
At the behest of Poland and other central and eastern European countries,
the amended document restricts the UK’s ability to apply a new immigration system to EU nationals arriving during the transition.

“In particular, the provisions of the citizens’ rights part of the withdrawal agreement should apply as from the end of the transition period,” the paper states.

This would mean individuals arriving in the UK after Brexit but before 2021 would be eligible to stay in the UK indefinitely,
and for the most part could not be denied work permits under any new immigration regime.
…
The EU changes emphasise that British ministers, during the transition,
will not be able to enter agreements with non-EU countries to replace the benefits of those lost deals
“unless authorised to do so by the union”.

JRM elecred as chair of ERG

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/16/jacob-rees-mogg-lead-influential-group-tory-eurosceptic-mps

James Woolsey is not the hard right. He is pure establishment. There is so much money to be made destroying EU agriculture and industry. The UK is a practice run.

newsthump.com/2018/01/16/woman-who-magically-found-1bn-to-save-her-own-job-unable-to-find-anything-to-save-20000-jobs/

newsthump.com/2018/01/14/people-shocked-that-woman-who-would-sleep-with-ukip-leader-twice-her-age-is-tasteless-racist/

Ya gotta hand it to Newsthump.

My overnight thought today was on the positive EU measures on credit cards and bags in the press this week.I was trying to fathom the motivations behind TM taking credit for abolishing credit card charges, and Gove bagging kudos for environmental action on plastic bags.(Puns intended).

Either:

1.	The gov't  approach was simply trying to fool the electorate that this gov’t is not exclusively focussed on the withdrawal bill and  haemorrhaging money on the withdrawal , but that they are genuinely trying to help voters and the environment in other ways; or
2.	This an agreed attempt at small positive EU messages softening the way for CU or SM. Showing that we in fact voted for and are behind  the (mostly sensible) food and consumer measures decided jointly at EU level; or
3.	They are worried about Leaver outrage and backlash about wicked EU measures on credit card charges and bags. They are therefore trying to avert criticism for the fact that some measures are still applicable, Hence the pretence that the measures have been unilaterally decided by us alone.

Whichever, it’s clearly a new agreed approach, and it’s weird.

.

On the plastic bag thing have you seen this post from DEFRA getting in a strop because apparently their plastic bag charge is nothing at all to do with the EU! It is just an amazing coincidence that the EU was pushing for plastic bag charges around the same time as the UK decided to do it.

deframedia.blog.gov.uk/2018/01/16/tuesday-16-january-plastic-bags-charge-correction/

My overnight thought today was on the positive EU measures on credit cards and bags in the press this week.I was trying to fathom the motivations behind TM taking credit for abolishing credit card charges, and Gove bagging kudos for environmental action on plastic bags.(Puns intended).

Fear.
Uncertainty.
Doubt.

????

Anyone else going to see the Bayeaux Tapestry when it hits the UK ?

What interesting timing.

Will Brexit affect the Elgin Marbles ?

It's a bit of a home goal from Gove's department of DEFRA though.

One reason why whole taking back control argument was fundamentally flawed because we were ( past tense now) a major player in the EU with joint control and often we instigated measures that were later adopted by the other members.

We were not only voting in favour of most of the environmental and food standards but did propose many things that the other EU member states followed.

So plastic bags looks like something that was proposed perhaps by us or perhaps even earlier at some stage by another country. It was then jointly acted upon; clearly we implemented it faster than other countries. Similarly the anti discrimination provisions in the original EU Equal treatment directive were based on our legislation at the time. The other member states followed, then ironically decades later the right wing here appeared to resent discrimination laws, forgetting we were the initial prime movers.

Similarly the accession on Eastern European states, we were one of the prime movers and supporters of that.

Was it mentioned here that Ireland was of interest for meddling in their democratic process?
In the Times, Irish edition, today the story that Kanto is going to 'help' with the abortion referendum. The founder of Kanto used to work with Cambridge Analytica. They've learned from brexit how to get their way, now they'll use their tactics to stop abortion. Is this one of the reasons Fromage was there the other day?

Similarly the accession on Eastern European states, we were one of the prime movers and supporters of that.

But not for noble reasons.