Westministers: Happy New Year?

[RedToothBrush]

And so we enter a New Year full of hope that things might just be about to recover from our national nervous breakdown... or perhaps not.

As we have Damien Green ejected from his role as Deputy PM over allegations of inappropriate conduct towards woman and use of porn at the end of last year, 2018 sees a bright new progressive dawn with the appointment to the role of universities regulator of Toby Young. A man who has deleted 20,000 tweets including many which are inappropriate and offensive to women, is a fan of eugenics and hates the working class and disabled.

Meanwhile the NHS is facing a crisis which is totally unexpected to the government and couldn't possibly have been planned for by a man who has over seen it for over five years. Which naturally bodes really well for Brexit planning.

We are apparently planning to join the TPP. Never mind geopolitics we can move the UK to the Pacific region.

We still are not ready for trade talks because the Cabinet can not agree on anything. Not that it sounds like they have actually discussed anything along these lines yet.

Rumours are that the Cabinet - including arch leavers such as Gove - are leaning towards supporting May and a softer option, despite the disgust of Johnson, who once again is the subject of malicious chatter about his sacking in a forthcoming Cabinet Reshuffle.

There is talk of further Tory Party war with the revelation that membership of the party has dropped to a core of just 70,000 hardline authoritarian men, most of whom are over 60. Tory HQ now wants to (perhaps with some good reason to prevent the loons) rewrite the constitution and limit the power of local associations to select candidates. The Tory party is now lining up to be a power struggle between internal authoritarians, who don't like democracy voices or structure.

Meanwhile the Labour Party membership now apparently overwhelmingly looks upon staying in the customs union and single market favourably and is in favour of a second referendum. In opposition to the leadership who are utterly committed to Hard Brexit. Much to the annoyance of Lord Adonis who is pitching a fit about government corruption and incompetence and being accused of being elite because he going skiing. Unlike of prominent Leavers who are in touch with the working class.

And finally Nigel Farage has got a meeting with Barnier. Farage, unlike Clegg, Clarke and Adonis, will not be accused by the Right Wing Press of undermining the government's negotiating position because...

It appears that we are in for another year of Brexit nonsense then.

We've not even heard mention of Gibraltar yet.

@StephenAtHome
One of the most surprising parts of "Fire and Fury" is how Donald Trump accidentally started a national book club.

And this one^

lessworried always this worry about 'being without a government for months' - as if it will inevitably lead to rioting in the streets and mobs with flaming choices. Didn't happen in Belgium, which was without a government for more than a year. Didn't happen in the Netherlands, where they went without for a month. The machinery just keeps moving on even if a government is still being negotiated.

If that's your strongest argument against PR, it shows how little you know.

I'd be much more worried about Jeremy Hunt's elevation to deputy PM causing civil unrest than an absence of government...

Would the Eu want us back. May and the press could have be gracious and organised re BREXIT instead they have lied, come to meetings unprepared and it is the EU have had to correct them. The next swath of politicians don't actually look any more competent or know about what the EU does - my cons MP is in his 40s and will probably get elected at the next election. Is a massive Brexit er but cannot say what is wrong with EU when asked apart from getting our sovereignty back. when I pointed out at a meeting there would be a two tier citizenship as certain people apply for 2nd passports he just looked blank . Same when it was pointed out smaller businesses were suffering now as the £ is lower than the €.

Would the Eu want us back

So far EU leaders have indicated they would accept us back. Though whether this would be on the same generous terms as we left on is another matter. I would like to think that they won't hold the incompetence and horridness of May and parts of the media against the whole of the rest of the country. Thankfully most of them seem rather more grown up than much of our current Government non this respect. I imagine that if would be politically easier for us for return under a new Government though.

The EU, unlike our own government, acknowledges that the very narrow Leave win means that there is a very substantial proportion of people within the UK who wish to remain and they would like to have them back. The one thing that I can agree with Leavers on is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU and that leaving without a deal would cause a hole in the EU budget: while the Leavers see this as a way of strong-arming the EU into a good deal, I see it as as way of the UK getting smooth passage back in.

Does anyone else have the impression of the EU as a kind of grandad - not exactly nimble, a bit doddery, but quite patient - with the UK as the racist uncle who everyone just rolls their eyes at when he makes another bad taste joke over the Christmas dinner? Even his own kids are ashamed of him. Everyone else would rather he didn't turn up but Grandad keeps persisting in the hope he'll see the light...

guess who came to Christmas dinner round mine

The one thing that I can agree with Leavers on is that the UK is a net contributor to the EU and that leaving without a deal would cause a hole in the EU budget

Which may well be filled by economic growth in the EU at the UKs expense ???

The UK's net contributions are about €9 billion, which is only 0.7% of UK GDP

The E27's GDP is about €16 TRILLION (16,000 billion)

So, the loss should be manageable

MP says Brexit could be behind decision to move some Colman’s work to Germany

Not many jobs going, but this is just one example - and neither Brexit nor the transition have started

www.edp24.co.uk/business/clive-lewis-brexit-colmans-1-5344790

Unilever, which produces Norwich’s famous Colman’s Mustard, announced on Thursday the firm will close its plant in the city.

The GDP isn't the same as the contributions though. The total EU budget is about 150 billion euro - the UK contribution is more than 10 billion euro - that is quite a large proportion. I'm not convinced other countries will be happy to make up the difference although, as DGR points out, perhaps expanding economies will make it easier.

Still looks like the govt must choose between holding onto EU trade and having an FTA with the USA

The powerful US agribusiness sector - which owns much of Congress - keeps restating that the UK must accept lower food and animal welfare standards as a prerequisite for any trade deal.

I wonder if an undertaking to supply British armed forces on request for US wars
is another reason that UK-US trade discussions are to be kept secret for years after any deal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-04/stop-saying-american-chicken-isn-t-safe-to-eat-u-s-tells-brits

The U.S. wants Britain to cut European Union regulations after Brexit to boost the chances of striking a free-trade deal between the two countries.

The budget contributions are only a small part of any contributor's GDP, well under 1%
Hence splitting the UK contribution among say the 10 largest contributors would be maybe increasing by 0.1% of each country's GDP

It's not loose change, but Brexiters are ridiculous to claim it's crippling.

Problems will arise if the EU ties maintaining payments to Poland and Hungary with those govts returning to democratic principles in their countries.

However, that would have happened anyway in the new 7-year budget from 1 Jan 2021, because those 2 countries govts are implementing far right policies to subvert democracy

• normally the UK, under whatever govt, would be in the forefront of demanding those 2 countries return to democratic principles. Now, instead, the UK is trying to woo them for support

Suggestion:
The UK should Brexit; Poland and Hungary join it - on condition the UK replaces all their EU aid
Well, it looks like the NFU have got a similar deal from the govt for UK farmers

I'm not convinced any of the net contributor governments would be willing to do that - but we are probably debating something that is entirely theoretical as the UK will continue to pay for access to the SM if it does Brexit (and probably at a higher rate than it was doing pre-Brexit).

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak
Sky News has learned construction company Carillion which is contracted to build the Government's HS2 high-speed rail link project is trying to find new funding within weeks as it seeks to avoid collapse

The cost of HS2 is about to skyrocket or be scaled back massively.

% of GDP is more important than % of budget&

The UK net contribution is about 6% of total budget

Say Lindt choc hikes prices of your usual choc bar^ by 15%, or 30 cents - cheeky, but does not make the slightest difference to your standard of living

very different if your rent^ increases by 15%

Of course, if you and your DP habitually debate the grocery budget for 2 years, then that 30 cents on a Lindt bar could be an important issue of principle.
It won't be a matter of money, though

The cost of HS2 is about to skyrocket or be scaled back massively
Good, I'd hoped that one of the benefits of brexism would be the abandoning of HS2.
Well dodgy this one, as well as destroying the irreplaceable.

@lalalonglegs - I know what you mean but in reality there shouldn't be a need for the eu27 to make up "our" contributions. We will need to pay our agreed contribution to the current 5yr budget to 2020 (and continue to receive payments from the eu for programmes as agreed in that budget)

Budgets post 2020 wouldn't have our contribution so different spending programmes would be agreed.

If we remain, the relative growth of the eu27 versus the UK would mean that the same 13.5% share would equate to a significantly larger % of our gdp - however I believe the share is gdp related so the minor upside of the current mismanagement ought to see that 13.5% drop.

ho hum.

Ho hum indeed. As I wrote earlier, I'm pretty sure that, between an extended transition period and paying for continued access to the SM, our contributions are going to remain part of the EU budget for the foreseeable future - another Brexit triumph...

Net Uk contribution is calculated in Euros, so has "risen" as Sterling has plummetted

Net UK contribution is about €10 bn
(attached HoC chart shows net contributions for each country overlaid on EU chart of their EU funding)

Total EU budget is about €150 bn
So afaik, the UK pays net 10/150, which is about 6.7 % of current budget

Current EU seveno-year budget ends 31 Dec 2020;
hence this date was defined by the E27 for the Brexit transition period to end.

I don't know if May would survive an extension to the transition, keeping the same pay-no-say
But maybe her idea is to keep drawing out Brexit over years, so there are no sudden shocks, just a continual slow decline which voters are used to anyway ?

The problem with American chicken is that it is cheaper to produce than EU chicken. Americans eat it and survive.

Wrt technical/vocational education, in Ireland:

The offerings of Carlow Institute of Technology, Ireland.
www.itcarlow.ie/courses/type/undergraduate-cao-courses.htm
A cousin of mine started out as a fitter and recently graduated with a B Eng in mechanical engineering.

www.itcarlow.ie/study/lifelong-learning/itcarlow-springboard-courses.htm
'Springboard' courses, free if accepted.

Note the mention of funding at the bottom of this page - 'Ireland's European Structural and Investment Funds Programmes/ Co-funded by the Irish Government and the European Union'.

math The different heath effects found in US and EU studies on meat / poultry consumption suggest that although Americans survive chlorine chicken and hormone-ridden beef,
they do not thrive on it

The wealthy in the UK - as in the US - will not be eating US mass-produced meet though, only the best quality food

`The HoC subsidised restaurants will not be serving chlorine chicken and hormone-ridden beef