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Brexit

What happens if we don't get to talk about trade after next month?

26 replies

Bearbehind · 18/11/2017 17:48

It's no secret I think this entire process is a fuck up of epic proportions, but even the happiest, clappiest of Leaver must be starting to wonder when we are actually going to sort out our future relationship with the EU.

Whether you agree with the EU getting to decide when talks can move on or not, that's where we are and the signs are not looking good for moving on, particularly re NI.

So what next?

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Mistigri · 19/11/2017 07:51

I'm not even sure it really matters, except symbolically, and for the British press. The remaining time before October 2018 is too short to do a trade deal of any sort, other than an off the shelf Norway style arrangement, and tbh we seem to be cutting it fine even for that.

The whole thing is so bizarre, incompetent and self-destructive that I'm just bored of the whole thing now, and I'm in the group of people most affected.

Peregrina · 19/11/2017 08:55

I could envisage that come the date the airlines need to publish their new timetables for post March 2019, they have to exclude UK flights. Cue massive panic from the Govt, and some sort of interim deal stitched up. Or 30th March - the French decide to stop lorries coming in, for customs checks. A massive operation stack ensues, and again, another set of panic reactions from the Govt., midnight oil burnt, and some other interim deal gets stitched up. The port of Grimsby has problems, more midnight oil burnt, another interim deal cobbled together. All these cost money, more than the UK currently pays to the rest of the EU...........

GhostofFrankGrimes · 19/11/2017 09:12

Any possibility May will agree the settlement figure shortly before xmas? After that surely securing EU citizens rights would be straight forward. NI not so much. Or am I be too naive/optimistic?

Peregrina · 19/11/2017 09:25

The only deal I can see being acceptable for NI is for the UK to stay in the Customs Union and Single Market, and May's right wing won't accept that, sorry, it won't be the will of the people.

Bearbehind · 19/11/2017 09:26

We just seem to be so far away from agreeing anything on the three areas the EU want sorting first.

We’ve pissed about the whole of this year so it would be a miracle if it gets sorted in the next 5 weeks.

Have I read the next opportunity to move talks on isn’t until March?

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Mistigri · 19/11/2017 12:45

Yes, March.

Does it really matter? Six months is too short, but so is nine months. This "moving on" issue is largely symbolic IMO. There's not going to be a trade agreement in October 2018 whether talks start in December or in March.

I concede that there is still much to do before the UK leaves, and that a further delay is not a good thing.

Bearbehind · 19/11/2017 14:09

I agree misti, I just wonder when the rhetoric is going to change and those in change of this shambles start to admit we're not going to get a deal in time.

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Fruitboxjury · 19/11/2017 14:23

The outcome is more loss of face for UK which will be portrayed as everyone else stalling. In the background however things will be moving to establish positions in advance if talks, we just won’t know it.

I think the first step is for the govt and leave voters to take responsibility for the shambolic progress they’ve made and stop blaming other people (EU and remain camp) for their own failings. They wanted this, they own it. The timetable was AGREED at the start, I don’t see the benefit of them stalling by refusing to give concrete options on things like the divorce bill.

Nigel Farage suggested on lbc this morning that an option Regards NI was a free trade agreement with Ireland, and a separate trade and customs agreement with the EU. In my mind these are the kinds of reasons we are stalling, we aren’t putting forward anything credible at all.

No matter when they start trade talks, we are doomed to years of bureaucracy, expense and ineffective leadership, all whilst our public services rot and our economy drifts as people look for the illusive idea of certainty.

OliviaD68 · 19/11/2017 19:37

@Bearbehind

Not sure if this was ever made clear, but there was never any intention by the EU for a deal to get done before March 2019. I know this is different than what the press has said and the govt too.

Rather, the next phase of discussions - until March 2019 - are intended to cover a framework for departure which is very wide ranging and also a post March 2019 transition period ... The framework is intended to cover everything from aviation to medicines to trade etc

I still have not heard the government say this and I’m not sure they ever really understood.

Once in the transition period, we can then begin negotiating the large number of agreements required including trade. This period could last 10 years.

Fruitboxjury · 19/11/2017 22:10

OliviaD68 your post makes sense, do you have any references to it as I don’t recall hearing much about it?

Also if this is the case, do you think that the govt didn’t understand this point or that they did yet still want to portray the EU as being obstinate meaning we end up with a transition period as opposed to just accepting one from the outset (and risk being accused by public and press of failing to deliver Brexit)?

Likewise, why then was the concept of w transition period so contentious around the time of the Florence speech?

I’m assuming it also implies that the framework agreed for March 2019 would lay out a set of fundamental principles for each sector that detailed agreements can be based on... we wouldn’t expect to see major changes in direction later

Peregrina · 19/11/2017 23:55

Olivia I would like to think that May is playing some sort of game making a show of appeasing her right wing Brexit idiots, while secretly looking for an extension, dressed up as transition. But I don't think she is that clever or devious, depending on how you view these things.

Carolinesbeanies · 20/11/2017 02:30

Absolutely nothing. We leave March 2019 and thats that. Sitting around waiting for various eu nations to have multiple elections to find someone who does have authority to agree anything, isnt a t&c of withdrawal. Olivias correct in part about framework, but if the framework is there is no framework, then thats fine too.

This isnt a situation where someone pipes up, well we wont let you leave. You cant leave. Its the opposite.

No agreements made, doesnt default to youre shackled forever. It means we leave as per notice.

Bearbehind · 20/11/2017 05:20

I know that is what you want to happen -caroline but the reality is, it can't be allowed to happen.

I don't believe the EU is trying to prevent us leaving but it is making it clear what we can and can't have when we leave.

We can't just walk away with no agreement on things like flights, financial passporting or customs borders.

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MongerTruffle · 20/11/2017 05:46

Croatia has been waiting for the other member states to ratify its EEA agreement since April 2014. I don't think we will be able to negotiate a proper deal.

shhhfastasleep · 20/11/2017 06:14

It is stupidly naive to think the other 27 are going to make this divorce easy.

Peregrina · 20/11/2017 08:09

I for one, won't be buying any flights until the situation is crystal clear. I won't be alone.

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:04

@Peregrina

Seems you are correct to be concerned ...

Baroness Doocey

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the impact that the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union Open Skies Agreement would have on the United Kingdom’s tourism industry.

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Sugg) (Con)

My Lords, the Government are considering carefully all the potential implications arising from the UK’s exit from the EU. We are aiming to negotiate the best possible relationship between the UK and the EU in the field of aviation and matters impacting on tourism. The importance of air services to the UK tourist economy is recognised across government, and we will continue to work closely with the aviation and tourism industries to ensure their continued success.

Baroness Doocey (LD)

My Lords, the airport operators’ association, ABTA, and all the major United States airlines have said it is essential to have new deals in place by spring of next year. Given the speed of the Brexit negotiations, that is perhaps a bit optimistic, so what are the Government doing to mitigate the devastating impact that any disruption or interruption to flights is likely to have on tourism, which contributes £127 billion to the UK economy and provides employment for 3 million people?

Baroness Sugg

My Lords, the UK already has 111 bilateral agreements on air services with other countries, and they of course will continue after we leave the EU. However, we understand the need for early reassurance on flights to the EU, and that will be a consideration when we negotiate our future relationship. Airline representatives made it clear last month to the Transport Select Committee that they would continue to sell tickets, and that they share our confidence that we will get a good agreement in place after Brexit. We meet regularly with the airlines at both official and ministerial level to discuss the options for the future aviation relationship.

Lord Trefgarne (Con)

My Lords, what will happen to the operational regulation of civil aviation at Brexit? Will that revert to the Civil Aviation Authority?

Baroness Sugg

The CAA already operates the vast majority of EU regulations in the UK and will continue to do so after exit.

Lord Adonis (Lab)

My Lords, will the Minister guarantee to the House that there will be no disruption in air traffic as a result of Brexit in March 2019?

Baroness Sugg

My Lords, the Government recognise the need for UK air traffic management arrangements to remain interoperable with the rest of Europe. Safe and efficient air traffic management is a priority for us. We are considering all the potential implications for the UK and working with NATS to ensure that there is no disruption.

Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)

My Lords, will the Minister confirm that flights across the Atlantic are in fact covered by an agreement between the European Union and the United States? What contacts have the British Government had with the United States Government about the situation if there were not an agreement with the EU?

Baroness Sugg

I can confirm that flights between the US and the EU are currently covered under an EU/US air transport arrangement. This is of course a really important market for us, with over 90 million passengers between the UK and the US in 2016. I confirm that my officials are having informal discussions with the US on air services, and we have made positive progress. Our aim is to maintain the liberal market access arrangements available under the current agreement.

Lord Robathan (Con)

My Lords, my noble friend is of course much younger than not only me but most Members of the House. Could she tell the House whether it was possible before 1972 to fly across the Channel? I seem to remember doing so. It was rather easier than it is now.

Baroness Sugg

I can confirm that yes, it was indeed possible to fly across the Channel, and we look forward to continuing to do so.

Lord Rosser (Lab)

No guarantees were given to my noble friend Lord Adonis in response to his question, and I am sure that note has been taken of that fact. In the light of the Answer to the noble Baroness, Lady Doocey, and of the potential adverse impact on tourism, will the Government at least do what the aviation industry wants and give a commitment now to deal with aviation separately and in advance of the main negotiations with the EU on Brexit since there is no automatic WTO fallback for the governance of international aviation rights if we do not reach agreement on new air service agreements following our withdrawal from the EU? Will the Minister, having failed to give the guarantees sought by my noble friend Lord Adonis, at least give a commitment on behalf of the Government to deal with aviation separately and in advance of the main negotiations?

Baroness Sugg

I am afraid I am not able to give that commitment to the noble Lord today. How sectors are discussed will of course be a matter for the negotiations, but of course we recognise that traditionally aviation agreements have been negotiated separately. For our part, we are ready to move on with the negotiations.

The Lord Bishop of Leeds

My Lords, if it is not possible to give that commitment now, is it possible to give an idea of a timeline as to when that commitment can be made, when the aim might become a reality?

Baroness Sugg

As I said previously, we are ready to move on with these negotiations and hope to do so shortly.

Lord Lee of Trafford (LD)

My Lords, longer queues at airports are likely to be yet another exciting bonus of Brexit. What plans do the Government have to deal with the likely increase in queueing at the airports?

Baroness Sugg

My Lords, we are of course mindful of this possibility and are planning for the border to maintain security and flow at all ports of entry and exit. The Department for Transport is working closely with the Home Office to minimise delays after exit.

Lord Spicer (Con)

My Lords, is it not possible that under Brexit, Britain will retain its open skies policy and the EU will fall back into its protectionist mode, a situation which existed when I was Minister for Aviation—to the great benefit, as it happened, of the British aviation industry?

Baroness Sugg

My Lords, it is of course in the common interests of the UK and the EU that we maintain access to the open, liberal arrangement for aviation that we currently have, and we are confident that we will achieve a mutually beneficial agreement.

Lord Harris of Haringey (Lab)

My Lords, the noble Baroness has not given the guarantee that my noble friend Lord Adonis asked for. Can she tell us what proportion of flights in or out of the United Kingdom are to Europe—or, in the light of her answer to the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, what proportion are to or from the United States, and therefore how many are at risk because the Government cannot give that guarantee?

Baroness Sugg

I have already given the figure of 90 million passengers between the UK and the US, and of course we have our 111 bilateral arrangements, which I have spoken about before. On the 17 countries with which we currently have a relationship through being part of the European Union, we are already having discussions with them to agree a future bilateral arrangement. On the percentage of flights between the EU and the UK, I will have to get back to the noble Lord in writing.

Peregrina · 20/11/2017 19:14

I think Lord Robathan's memory is a bit faulty - of course we could fly across the channel before 1972. I would certainly say that it wasn't easier then than now. We didn't have the multiplicity of cheap flights available, so most people crossed the channel by packing onto the ferry from Dover.

PattyPenguin · 20/11/2017 19:51

In the 1970s holidays in Greece were popular with young people.

Who used to travel there by coach, which took 3 days (stopping only for refreshment/toilet breaks). Because flying and going by train were too expensive / complicated.

In 1981, I travelled to the South of France by Magicbus. That only took a tad under 24 hours.

In fact, today the equivalent of my Magicbus journey takes about 19 and half hours with Eurolines. Megabus can do London to Dusseldorf in a speedy 10 hours (although the longest time the journey takes is 19 and a quarter hours).

Mm.

lljkk · 20/11/2017 19:57

Damn... I was planning a big trip to USA in December 2018. These developments are not good.

(I keep plugging the Economist). There's a good article this week about how the Brexit vote actually took away Parliamentary sovereignty. MPs have to vote against their conscience (give away their sovereignty) because it's "the will of the people".

The will of a rabid 20% of electorate, aided by a lot of protest votes. :(

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 20:13

@lljkk

There's always a cruise ship ...

lljkk · 20/11/2017 20:15

My folks do the cruise ships. 10 days with a lot of 85 yr olds!

frumpety · 29/11/2017 07:27

*Baroness Sugg

My Lords, we are of course mindful of this possibility and are planning for the border to maintain security and flow at all ports of entry and exit. The Department for Transport is working closely with the Home Office to minimise delays after exit*

Minimise delays , not no delays , but minimise . So she is saying there will be delays and people are working on how to reduce the impact of that ?

OliviaD68 · 29/11/2017 08:27

@frumpety

people are working on how to reduce the impact of that ?

You don's seriously believe that do you?

frumpety · 29/11/2017 13:50

Olivia , no they are all too busy trying to write something that they can pass off as impact assessments Wink

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