Westministenders: A week in politics is a long time....

[RedToothBrush]

Lost track of politics in the last week or so?

Someone asked how do I keep on top of this? I’ve struggled this week there is so much going on.

Brexit seems to be on a bit of a back burner and we have become utterly swamped in mud and sleaze and corruption allegations

So here is a summary of the last week:

1. Government defeated over the impact reports due to an ancient parliamentary protocol. They must release papers to the public though this is likely to be heavily redacted.
2. Currently we are holding talks about talks with the EU. Instead of speeding up talks. They are annoyed at us for this.
3. Baroness Anelay, the minister responsible for getting the Repel Bill through the Lords, quit citing an injury caused by jumping out of a helicopter several years ago. She was the second person to quit this role. Lord Bridges quit saying it was impossible task.
4. Michael Gove has joined the Brexit Cabinet, which now has a majority of Leavers.
5. There is currently no one employed at the Brexit department for strategic planning.
6. Brexit Bill likely to face even more opposition in the face of Williamson’s self promotion. More Remainers who have been loyal to May talking of joining the Rebel Forces.
7. The has been a threat to rig the Lords to pass the Repel Bill according to Lord Adonis
8. Clegg, Adonis and Clarke went to see Barnier. Farage got jealous.
9. Talks for Stormont broke down. No direct rule but not home rule. Who is ruling is a mystery, but the same can be said in England at present. DUP are not getting their dosh.
10. FTA may not be possible on lines UK want as it would be better than Canada and South Korea and that’s not legally allowed. The real problem for the UK is services.
11. EHCR related issues – prisoner voting rights and letter to Romanian which brings into question whether the EHCR is deliberately being flouted.
12. Clause in the data protection bill which allows it to be ignored ‘cos immigration’.
13. The Electoral Commission are being sued for allowing over spending by Vote Leave
14. Arron Banks is being investigated by the Electoral Commission over how he donated to political causes
15. UKIP whistleblowers reported donations they thought were odd and not declared but only just has come to light
16. Arron Banks is winding up a charity under investigation by the Charities Commission
17. Arron Banks paid for Kate Hoey to go to Washington DC.
18. Lord Ashcroft apparently exposed by the Bermuda hack, like Robert Mercer
19. Steve Baker reported for taking money from the mysterious donor to the DUP
20. Priti Patel breaks ministerial code with an undisclosed trip to Israel with lobbyist. May says she has done nothing wrong, despite it being clear breech of the rules.
21. Michael Fallon quit over multiple incidents
22. Damien Green embroiled in accusation over Kate Maltby. Also having a fight with former counter terrorism copper who he has history with over ‘extreme porn’ found on his computer during a raid. Copper previously said he had been set up in the paper but dropped the accusation. Green is denying everything
23. Charlie Elphicke has had the whip removed and case has been referred to police. Says he has done nothing wrong and isn’t even aware of what he has been accused of.
24. Steven Crabb under investigation for sexting. Has apologised.
25. Michael Garnier under investigation for dildo buying. Has apologised
26. Daniel Kawcyznski allegedly tried to set up dates with aides and wealthy friends
27. Dan Poulter reported by fellow tory MP Andrew Bridgen for allegedly putting hands up skirts. Whips told in 2010.
28. Chris Pincher alleged pound shop Weinstein who attempted to untuck the shirt of former Olympic rower and tory activist Alex Story.
29. Gavin Barwell former whip and May’s special adviser. Broke special advisor code by tweeting politically controversial things. Is accused of being complicit in hiding the bodies and not taking action.
30. Gavin Williamson gave himself a promotion and pissed everyone off. As former whip knows all the dirt but is vulnerable as a result of that, as he didn’t report or discipline offenders.
31. ‘The Lift Lunger’ – as yet unnamed Tory MP said to have ‘attacked’ Labour MP in taxi. Date rape drugs possibly involved.
32. Boris Johnson, Alok Sharma and Tobias Ellwood all named as having contact with the mysterious Maltese professor named in the Papadopoulos indictment.
33. Farage makes anti-Semitic remarks on LBC. That’s Farage, a person of interest to the FBI.
34. Three indictments in USA for Trump Russia. Which implicate a whole load of people by association.
35. Some stuff is going on in Saudi Arabia which should have half an eye kept on it.
36. Jared O’Mara, Clive Lewis, Ivan Lewis and Kelvin Hopkins on the Labour Shit List. Also a rape allegation against a Labour activist which was shut down by a senior Labour figure

This week the Repel Bill and the Budget. Plus no doubt, lots more scandal.

The GFA supersedes the British Nationality act
Best bit of news I've heard for a while.
Let's hope the gfa stays in place hopes to every deity going

It's just a train of thought that struck me, Somerville.

The only utility of the DUP to the major British political parties is as a necessary prop in the case of a minority government of any stripe.

The problem with that for both parties is that their price is £1bn (this time anyway) and possibly someone's firstborn child as a guarantee that they will get their money next time, since they haven't seen a penny of this round of bribery yet. The other issue is that they can become the tail that wags the dog when they support a minority government.

The Tories are Unionists up to a point. Some are more animated by the concept of the Union than others. Many Tories at this juncture are hard Brexiteers, however. The question yet to be answered is how much of a spanner in the works the thorny issue of NI might be to the ascent to the sunlit uplands.

If the GFA continues to be the circle that can't be squared, it might be tempting for Brexiteers who are lukewarm Unionists to ditch it along with the DUP and the rest of NI if the Tories could cheer themselves up at the prospect of resulting civil war in Ireland. Any struggle within the Tories over the issue of NI would constitute a secondary knife fight, with the primary billing still Brexit vs Remain.

Some (Tory) Unionists might be content with schadenfreude - to see a 32 county Ireland enter a period of political upheaval and turmoil, constitutional adjustment, SF with no more raison d'etre in NI nipping at the heels of FF and all Irish left wing parties in a 32 county electoral system, with perhaps some sort of last stand by armed hard core Loyalists determined to establish a Free State of Ballymena, etc. The Black and Tans fulfilled the aim of making sure the door hit Ireland pretty hard on the way out almost 100 years ago, after all.

Labour could paint the untethering of NI as an example of its commitment to righting historic wrongs, with the bonus of potentially getting the Irish vote in England.

Again, just pondering.

...the significance of 29 March 2019 is that it is last feasible date for Brexit that would avoid ATAD.
I think this is an important point. The very rich donors and supporters of Brexit and the Tories are possibly not as interested in NI as less well off Tories of a more traditional English mould. Whose agenda is more likely to prevail?

This will not be news to any of you, but it’s good that it is actually in the news

Russian trolls pushed pro-Brexit spin on day of referendum

amp.cnn.com/money/2017/11/10/media/russia-brexit-tweets/index.html

(CNNMoney) A network of Twitter accounts with ties to the Russian government-linked troll army that meddled in U.S. politics posted dozens of pro-Brexit messages on the day of the referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union in June 2016, a CNN analysis has found.

The tweets, which were accompanied by popular referendum-related hashtags, mocked the pro-European Union campaign's warnings of the consequences of a vote for Brexit, and targeted then-British prime minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for his country to stay in the EU.

This is the first instance of coordinated pro-Brexit tweeting confirmed to have come from the Internet Research Agency. Other news organizations have identified accounts from people posing as American conservatives who posted some tweets in favor of Brexit, which fit the invented personas of those accounts. But the Russian accounts CNN identified as posting about Brexit were not nearly as elaborate as those, and were pretending to be from countries other than the U.S. or U.K. Their value appears to have come from a short-term play: Increasing their activity on the day of the vote in order to push pro-Brexit memes to people looking at neutral hashtags about the referendum.

The accounts CNN identified were among more than 2,700 accounts Twitter handed over to the U.S. House Intelligence Committee as part of its investigation into Russian meddling in last year's U.S. presidential election. Twitter provided the details of the accounts to Congress after the social media giant identified them as tied to the Internet Research Agency, a troll army in St. Petersburg with links to the Kremlin.

CNN has found four of the troll group's accounts that took to Twitter early on Brexit referendum day, Thursday, June 23, 2016, posted similar messages, using the same hashtags, often only seconds apart. The accounts appeared to retweet one another in an attempt to further amplify their message.

US Air Force official: Missile targeting Saudis was Iranian

apnews.com/f132794ad69b42f78ca3e39727432d2f

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran manufactured the ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Shiite rebels toward the Saudi capital and remnants of it bore “Iranian markings,” the top U.S. Air Force official in the Mideast said Friday, backing the kingdom’s earlier allegations.

The comments by Lt. Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, who oversees the Air Force’s Central Command in Qatar, further internationalizes the yearslong conflict in Yemen — the Arab world’s poorest country.

Saudi Arabia long has accused Iran of giving weapons to the Shiite rebels known as Houthis and their allies, though Tehran has just as long denied supplying them. Riyadh quickly backed up Harrigian’s allegations in a statement to The Associated Press.

“There have been Iranian markings on those missiles,” Harrigian told journalists at a news conference in Dubai ahead of the Dubai Air Show. “To me, that connects the dots to Iran.”

Also

There's growing worry that the situation in Saudi Arabia could spiral out of control

uk.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-on-lockdown-2017-11?r=US&IR=T

Events in Saudi Arabia are unfolding at a blinding pace, with a radical shift taking place within the upper echelons of government
Speculation abounds and there is growing worry that the situation could spiral out of control.
There is talk that a travel ban has been issued for a number of government officials, including executives from Aramco.
Naturally, in oil industry circles this raises the question over the safety of Aramco's IPO and, more than that, what will happen to oil prices if the instability intensifies.

[...]There is talk that a travel ban has been issued for a number of government officials, including executives from Aramco. That's on top of reports that Aramco board member Ibrahim al-Assaf, a former Finance Minister in the Kingdom, was also among those arrested.

Naturally, in oil industry circles this raises the question over the safety of Aramco's IPO and, more than that, what will happen to oil prices if the instability intensifies. For now, the news is all bullish for prices. The purge is widely seen as a pre-emptive strike and power grab by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, head of the new anti-corruption agency and heir to the throne, as well as the champion of the Vision 2030 reform program.

The Crown Prince is also the driving force behind the Aramco IPO, which should provide the funds for the reform program. Now, for the IPO to be as successful as Prince Mohammed wants it to be, global oil prices need to be high, perhaps higher than they are now.

Also

NYT Opinion
@nytopinion
President Trump’s uncritical support for the Saudi prince’s behavior is stirring fears of a war with Iran.

<a class="break-all" href="https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/opinion/saudi-arabia-donald-trump.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&referer=t.co/rn1jXYOUNL?amp=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/opinion/saudi-arabia-donald-trump.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&referer=t.co/rn1jXYOUNL?amp=1

Also

Axios
@axios
Once again, Tillerson and Trump aren't seeing eye to eye. This time on Saudi Arabia.

www.axios.com/tillerson-at-odds-with-trump-again-2508364719.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=textlong&utm_term=politics

woman North's estimation of trade losses in the event of no-deal are in
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86663

"with massive disruption at the ports and no trade deals signed, it is not unrealistic to think in terms of an overall 50 percent loss of trade – over £400 billion.
And, if that appears to be a staggering figure, one must recall that just two sectors of EU exports – chemicals and pharmaceuticals – account for £45 billion."

imo, he is being overly pessimistic, but that could just be because I don't want to contemplate the economic and social consequences for the UK if he's anywhere near the ballpark

I suspect the Saudi situation has been planned for months. Hence Trump's visit to SA and perhaps also TM's, and also Priti Patel's trip to Israel, I suspect.

Trump wants to ditch the Iran nuclear deal and supports Aramco. Hence the claim that Yemen has Iranian missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia, and hence also turning a blind eye to the knives to the back of so many opposition or potential opposition figures in SA, and also the strange situation with the Lebanese PM/threat to Hezbollah.

Lord Ashcroft's latest poll findings make for interesting reading:

Take no deal for example.

Re the GFA superseding the British Nationality Act - I immediately thought of Somerville's experience with the school and how people like Home Office Staff, School Bursars etc. do not understand what the position is in N Ireland. A decent Government would have sent round information to make sure that the situation was clear - but we don't have a decent Government - if some N Irish citizens are discriminated against, what the heck?

I notice also that our friends over on what I would call Leaver threads have a "what the heck" attitude too -it's all so simple, just a little detail which will somehow get sorted.

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
Chair of Irish Senate’s Brexit Committee tells #r4today that Boris Johnson suggested Ireland “lean on the EU” over the border issue. Was told to get stuffed.

Thanks bigchoc, I found that one but it's the EU tax dodge timing that looked significant, couldn't see that in the article.
Found this cheery ad from Danish politician.
^Fed up with Brexit Britain? Come to work in Denmark
Morten Østergaard^
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/10/fed-up-brexit-britain-come-work-denmark-eu
It'll be interesting to see how far the DUP will go with a brexit which will finish them off, too.math
Saudi and Iran look like the lunatic POTUS is creating an idiot's war in a beautiful benighted region. Pain
In olden times the Russian manipulation of Leave and trump would be acts of war. We've got analogue politics in a digital world. Pity it wasn't west that spotted the opportunities first.

The west did all it could in the days before the internet to interfere in Russian politics and the political process by means of several NGOs. (In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union). Interference was egregious, and not forgotten.

Russian trolls pushed pro-Brexit spin on day of referendum

The cynic in me says that this is just the leaders of the Leaver camp and the super-rich pushing the Russian angle, so that when the ordinary Leaver realises that they have been conned, they will hold their hands up and say "Not us, Guv - it was that Putin you need to blame".

Alex Wickham @ wikiguido
Piece for @theipaper on Tory feeling this weekend, which is very much "keep calm, the government is not about to fall"
Tory MPs generally think Brexit is being handled well by the govt, but they despair about non-existent policy offer. Demanding action in "make or break" Budget
Chief Whip Julian Smith producing HR plan for MPs in wake of Carl Sargeant death. Party wants to meet responsibilities to accused as well as accusers:

inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/alex-wickham-can-theresa-may-survive/amp/
This week inside the Tory cabinet: will Theresa May survive?
By Alex Wickham

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Gosh it’s almost as if there’s a negative HR-type story about Julian Smith’s Team in tomorrow’s papers
The main Story on page 9 of the Times about the whips office is really quite striking. Shocking, actually.
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/48c2a2b0-c65b-11e7-92dc-06edfbca4aab
Assault ‘victim’ says Tory whips breached his confidentiality

The new chief whip’s office is facing legal action from an alleged sexual assault victim who claims his confidentiality was breached by the department, The Times has learnt.

A civil servant in his thirties emailed Julian Smith last Saturday to complain that no action was being taken over his allegation that he was groped by Nigel Evans despite the Crown Prosecution Service reviewing its decision not to charge the Tory MP.

The incident was six months AFTER Nigel Evans was found not guilty of raping a student and sexual assault of six other men.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
An alleged victim of sexual assault reported an incident to the chief whip last Sat. Within days he’d been contacted by an old university acquaintance asking why people in chief whips office were trying to find out more about him. His name had leaked.

red thanks for posting the poll. Seems a sign of the lunacy of these times that polling respondents were often being asked to give opinions on issues they didn't understand, which figures in the data. Tiny shifts are going in the right direction, little by little, the precious undecided, unhappy remain tories and labour, are shifting over. I'm probably being hopelessly naive, as usual.

Melassa My understanding of the 29 March 2019 Brexit deadline to avoid ATAD (Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive)
is based on the Thomson Reuters specialist legal / tax blog

The EU member states must implement ATAD by 1 Jan 2019 - 1 Jan 2020
but it is the UK tax year running April to April which makes the effective deadline - 29 March 2019 is a Friday, 1 April a Monday.
A Corbyn govt would likely wish to implement this permanently anyway. However, it would be a natural consequence for a Tory govt not to do so and with this deadline they would receive no political fallout. Politics and money.

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-004-6057?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

"EU legislation due to be implemented in the UK
..... For example, if a full Brexit takes effect from 1 April 2019 (without transitional arrangements), it seems unlikely that the UK would attempt to implement the Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive (see Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive (ATAD)).

Alternatively, the UK might only leave the single market and the EU customs union, and cease to be subject to the jurisdiction of the CJEU with effect from, say, 2022 or 2023.
If that were to be the case, the UK may need to implement it."

Sorry, I see woman also asked about dodging ATAD

Cheers bcf got it.

math I completely accept that Western interference in Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed seriously worsened their desperate situation.
The economy had collapsed, millions were destitute & hungry .....
and the US and UK in particular - who had partly caused the downfall of the USSR - put the boot into the remnants of a helpless former enemy.
They forced Russia to accept some political humiliations too, iirc, with not imprisoning some Western agents who were found out.
Western oligarchs joined in the looting of the country by Russian capitalists

BUT

It may be understandable, even justifiable, that Putin is trying to wreck the West in retaliation
It doesn't mean we have to accept it
Anymore than I can accept Islamic terrorists taking revenge because of Western atrocities, or the IRA bombing us because of former British crimes against humanity in Ireland

Ordinary British and US citizens didn't commit those acts
Controversial I know, but I'd feel Putin would be much more justified in sending his polonium gang to the responsible Western politicians, those who are still around
His current tactics are like political & economic carpet bombing of civilians

So Priti Patel probably wasn't quite freelancing as much as was cracked on when she was on holiday. Come on Priti and No 10 - you need to cover your tracks better than this, the first rule is not to get found out.

Did anyone catch the poor "Leaver students" on R4 this morning ?

I'm sorry, but if they are examples of the best the UK has in nurtured critical thinking, then we're fucked. They're supposed to be the clever Brexiteers. They were just parroting complete nonsense (unchallenged, of course).

If you thought your opinion of Leavers couldn't get any lower, then you may want to give it a miss.

I suspect the Saudi situation has been planned for months. Hence Trump's visit to SA and perhaps also TM's, and also Priti Patel's trip to Israel, I suspect.

So Priti Patel probably wasn't quite freelancing as much as was cracked on when she was on holiday. Come on Priti and No 10 - you need to cover your tracks better than this, the first rule is not to get found out.

This has been my suspicion.

Too convenient.

It's been said that hard right Israeli politicians support the Aramco deal as it will make them oodles of money.

Everything is about billions of dollars for super rich morally bankrupt individuals.

www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-russia-influence-twitter-bots-internet-research-agency
Here's the first evidence Russia used Twitter to influence Brexit
Russia-based Twitter accounts that targeted the US presidential election also used divisive and racist rhetoric in an attempt to disrupt politics in the UK and Europe

Carole Cadwalladr @ carolecadwalla
Questions, anyone??
Photo surfaces of Boris Johnson with Joseph Mifsud.
The "London professor" named in FBI docs who's now gone to ground..
..and who Boris specifically denied meeting.
(H/t to @gavinsblog for top digging.)

Gavin Sheridan @ gavinsblog
Or to put it another way: see the guy to the left of Boris Johnson in this pic taken 3 weeks ago? He's the guy the FBI says was telling George Papadopoulos in April 2016 that he had dirt/emails on Hillary Clinton, weeks before the email hacks were public.

THREE WEEKS AGO?!!

I bloody hope there is a mistake here or some other understandable explanation.

Lawyer friend was at a posh black tie do last night at which....

^"Entertaining speech by lord neuberger last night. Compared the daily mail's "enemies of the people" front page to a Nazi party newspaper and then pondered why the government failed in their duty to condemn it.

He wasn't pulling his punches that's for sure."^

Indeed Just why didn't the Government call out the Daily Mail? Maybe because they were using exactly the same descriptors