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Brexit

April 2019. Brexit has happened. What now ?

8 replies

LurkingHusband · 03/09/2017 12:10

Inspired by the writing to MPs topic ...

If (and I know that's a whopper) but if we wake up in April 2019, and Brexit has happened; apart from the obvious pressure to reverse it; what other responses would people consider ?

I am thinking in particular of current established political parties and their support.

At the moment, if Brexit happens, it will require Labour support in some degree. That alone would make it impossible for me to give them my vote in the future.

I'm also imagining there are people who feel their Tory MP should have done more (and we still haven't really understood why the Tories feel they need to become the party of Brexit anyway) which might preclude them voting Tory in future.

There might also be an age dimension. If Brexit happens, it won't be reversed in my lifetime. Which will colour how I think.

OP posts:
TatianaLarina · 03/09/2017 16:09

....

April 2019. Brexit has happened. What now ?
Carolinesbeanies · 04/09/2017 10:07

You assume theres an EU, as you know it, to 'rejoin' OP. Thats not a particularly secure assumption at this point. In the very least FOM will have gone by then, so stacking up an economical benefit argument in a Union thats priced members out of world markets isnt a huge sale point either.

Cailleach1 · 04/09/2017 16:37

"a Union thats priced members out of world markets".

I don't know if that applies when other EU members sometimes do more trade, than the UK, with some world markets.

From below, (and I think Minford may not take this bit into account); "First, the level of trade between two countries often decreases as the geographic distance between them increases"

www.fnlondon.com/articles/trade-truths-for-trumpians-and-brexiteers-20170307

It wasn't the other 27 countries in the EU that hobbled talks with India and slinked away when 'relaxation of visa restriction' and 'take students off your migration figures' was mooted? It may have been the UK red lines which held back some world markets from the the EU in certain cases.

I don't know if something can be cobbled together (nothwithstanding the change in attitude and work pace needed for this) or if a transition can be cooked up to stave off a cliff edge. It is hard to imagine anyone irresponsible enough to let a cliff edge happen. There needs to be a transition agreement, so I think the UK will have some transition arrangements. Will be basic.

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2017 06:32

Not being able to trade with out barriers with our nearest neighbours lays bare the reality of some the things that led to the Brexit vote.

This attempt to stop immigration to sort that out only exacabates the situation.

Brexit promised more housing, more school places and better health care. It offered more freedom about our future. It will be pretty clear pretty quickly that this won't materialise.

Instead the converse is true and is coupled with centralisation of power and a loss of rights.

The situation for many is their ability to make ends meet already hangs by a thread. Draconian measures have less effect than they might otherwise have in that situation as people have little to lose.

It goes two ways: blame still placed on foreigners, and in that climate where there is such a hostile attitude to immigrants the split of who provides labour and who doesn't and how they are not being politically represented by anyone including Labour.

I think that the idea it will be led by political parties is in essence wrong for that reason. The structure of political parties are what have failed many people.

There will be efforts to crack down on descent but again this misses the point that until you offer people a stake in their own future you get a backlash.

In this sense the EU is way down the list of priorities though at the same time fundamental to why we are fucked. The domestic issues will dominate agendas.

I expect strikes followed by crack down on strikes before the next election. Which will lead to strikes deemed unlawful but spring from untenable domestic policy and tap into political undercurrents and issues that are being ignored. I can see it not just being a unionised thing.

To put simply we are on course for a crisis point which will be spontaneous rather than by design. Which will make it more difficult to maintain and manage. Its not militancy more desperation I hear creeping into political discussion. It's more than simple disillusionment.

The desire to control social media is in the midst of this for a multitude of reasons. The problem being the poor understanding from authority of that from both a technical and social point of view.

When will we hit this crisis point? Don't know. Depends on how Brexit is handled. A transition deal reduces that risk and makes it further away. The curious thing for me, is that you'd expect the Tories to want to push that to next parliament particularly if there is danger of them losing in order to push blame onto Labour.

Figmentofmyimagination · 06/09/2017 08:59

This immigration narrative is striking for the failure by many leavers to appreciate that the 'British jobs for British people' policy will operate not just via carrots for employers but also sticks for workers. We already have the most punitive, restrictive, meanest and most conditional unemployment benefit system in Western Europe. Workers' options will shrink still further when these additional low pay low skill jobs are their sole preserve again. Already you can be sanctioned for failing to accept a zero hour contract.

Heatherjayne1972 · 16/09/2017 16:24

Well according to today's newspaper if the government don't get the customs problems sorted in the next 6 months there's going to be a huge problem with customs/ Hmrc resulting in most of Dover and Calais being a lorry park
This will result in empty shelves and huge huge price increases for us

  • according to The Times anyway
ragged · 20/09/2017 21:51

I think OP is asking if people will hold a grudge, never forgive or even take revenge on political parties or specific politicians.

The only party I will blame is UKIP. I don't blame the Tories for calling the referendum, really, they had to.
There are a long list of campaigners & politicians that I don't think I'll ever forgive. I'm failing to think of any Brexit campaigners that I can find any respect for. I can hold a grudge a very long time, too.

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