Westministenders: Before the Fire Alarm of Rome goes off

[RedToothBrush]

I’m going to keep this one very simple.

THE DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS 22ND MAY.
www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Postal votes start to go out on 23rd May.

Your challenge is to persuade someone to register to vote or to get someone who is considering not to, to get their arse to the polling station.

Go forth and harass. Especially women and the young.

That’s it. No frills OP.

www.ft.com/content/c13ee5d0-38c3-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
Theresa May vows to expand workers’ rights in Tory manifesto

Moves to support ‘gig economy’ workers and tougher rules to protect pensions

Ooooh that sounds nice. You'll have better rights in the shit gig economy job you are lucky to find when you lose the good strong and stable one you currently have. You'll have the right for unpaid leave to look after a sick relative when the state can't do it. We don't know how on earth you'll afford to do that but hey aren't we great. Oh and is it true that your not going to raise the NMW to the level Osborne had promised? I don't see that in the article but it's being reported elsewhere.

red The PM announced in January that the UK will NOT be a full member of the customs union^^

That means E27 businesses cannot assume that UK components or other goods will arrive for the "just in time" production line that almost all volume manufacturers use.

I'd expect all E27 manufacturing firms currently importing UK components to switch to another E27 supplier if there is one - and there usually is.

The Brexiter economist Patrick Mindord has said Brexit would probably mean the end of Uk volume manufacturing, but he sees that as acceptable

We've also had several posts - often echoing Leavers Richard North & Christopher Booker - explaining why UK farming exports to the E27 may no longer be feasible at all.

And if you have a job and manage to keep it, the future looks bright:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39917285
Pay will continue to be squeezed, employers' survey suggests

It is the big unspoken issue of the election. Voters who, despite being in work, are not feeling any better off.

^It is also the major economic trend in Britain - the "living standards squeeze".
And the most recent data suggests that it is about to tighten.^

And
But, the 2008 crash and "Brexcuses" are not the whole picture.

There are also more fundamental problems with the UK economy.

Too many businesses are poorly run, as Andy Haldane, the chief economist of the Bank of England, has pointed out.

If this "long tail" of firms improved the way they worked, Britain's productivity headache could be treated.

You mean it's not the EU that has been stifling business? You mean we are just shit at it rather than being world leaders? But I thought it was the EU.

I know, we'll improve that by expanding the gig economy. That'll solve everything.

^Freedom of Information Act document leaks could become criminal
Campaigners warn of ‘oppressive’ proposal to lower threshold for prosecution of whistleblowers and journalists^

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/14/freedom-of-information-act-document-leaks-could-become-criminal

You can have a year off to look after your relatives, unpaid, deep joy - I can see it now "darling you know how your salary is less than mine after you took time off to bring up the kids, how about you take a year off to look after my mum?"
Basically more expecting women to do unpaid care work - bet men don't do it.

The 48% don't seem to have switched to LibDems from Tories (or Labour)
In fact Libdems vote share has been consistently down.

I suspect Leavers, motivated by nationalism, prioritise Brexit above anything else - we've seen Leave posters saying they are Labour, but happy to give May a blank cheque for 5 years.
However, Remainers seem to have returned to party loyalties.

red What is your analysis wrt LibDem vote ?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jobless-to-rise-as-slowdown-hits-nwmcbmm7p?shareToken=02a417037e52b78083b77070fea38c0a
Jobless ‘to rise as slowdown hits’
Impact of Brexit will take toll on economy, analysts warn

The number of people in work is forecast to fall next year for the first time in nearly a decade as Brexit takes its toll on the economy.

And

“The prospect of an uptick in unemployment . . . will hold pay growth down, as will extra costs faced by employers arising from rising input costs, the introduction of the apprenticeship levy and the expansion of pensions auto-enrolment,” EY said.

No fucking shit. Too busy hitting that fan rather hard.

And

Gerwyn Davies, labour market adviser at the institute, said: “There is a real risk that a significant proportion of UK workers will see a fall in their living standards as the year progresses.”

This is The Times reporting this. The Times.

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/15/lib-dems-promise-to-scrap-mass-snooping-powers-if-elected?CMP=twt_gu
Lib Dems promise to scrap mass snooping powers if elected

The new law significantly extends the scope of police forces by allowing them to collect and store 12 months’ worth of all UK residents’ web histories, which the Lib Dems describe as a “full frontal assault” on civil liberties.

The party’s announcement comes as a recent leaked draft document from the Home Office has revealed government plans use the act to force web companies to hand over anyone’s communications within 24 hours and to bring an end to encrypted messages.

It'll be interesting to see how they ban WhatsApp. And what reaction that gets from the young.

Also

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/14/freedom-of-information-act-document-leaks-could-become-criminal
Freedom of Information Act document leaks could become criminal
Campaigners warn of ‘oppressive’ proposal to lower threshold for prosecution of whistleblowers and journalists

Whistleblowers and journalists could be imprisoned for revealing documents that can be obtained through freedom of information requests, campaigners have warned.

Responding to the consultation on Law Commission proposals for a new espionage act with more punitive powers, freedom of speech organisations have condemned plans for lowering the threshold for prosecutions.

The Campaign for Freedom of Information and the rights group Article 19 fear that the proposals would make it easier to secure convictions by weakening the test for proving an offence and even criminalise passing on information discoverable under FoI requests.

Brexit = Freedom?
Brexit = Accountability?

Does someone think they have something to hide?

What's the point of the FOI Act if you are restricted in reporting and sharing what information you find?

we'll improve that by expanding the gig economy

How many western countries are making children pay to be kept off unemployment lists through extortionate college fees?

And their parents pay to work through zero hours jobs. ( in which the worker subsidises the employer, through funding their own travel between jobs, holiday and sick pay, on minimal wages)

It is a con, folks. Or a con con.

People are waking up to that one too.

"darling you know how your salary is less than mine after you took time off to bring up the kids, how about you take a year off to look after my mum?"

And whoops, there goes your pension, oh, and independence.

Boiling frogs and decimating hard won women's rights.

Tories have been prepping for this since 2010.

Too many businesses are poorly run, as Andy Haldane, the chief economist of the Bank of England, has pointed out
.
www.torfx.com/blog/will-brexit-see-zombie-companies-draining-the-life-from-the-uk-economy/20271/

I'm not sure what zombies do when they die, but I presume it's not pretty.

But it's all going to be worth it because Abstract Nouns!

red What is your analysis wrt LibDem vote ?

The trend seems to be down on what it was. I think it's down more to tactical voting and fear of May rather than a failure of them. It's a squeeze in the centre as the extremes push to the edge and the narrative is being framed as them or us (the last two elections it's very much been about three parties in England but it's not this time round).

medium.com/@chrishanretty/boosts-and-bumps-in-polling-459ef94f3099
Boosts and bumps in polling
How much do today's polls tell us about election day polls?

Chris Hanretty had an interesting blog post over the weekend about how accurate the polls will be. He made the point that generally the LDs over perform on what is predicted. I'm not convinced that will necessarily materialise this time. The Cons are trying to work hard at stopping it.

But I do think this, people who live in safe Tory marginals will vote LD rather than Labour if that's how they are inclined though. So the squeeze on the centre is highly dependent on where you live. There might be an overall trend but that will be hidden by how the vote localises.

This will be especially true in area with strong local LD parties. It won't be enough to take these type of seats but there will be an increase in vote share there. There are places where LDs have good support but are thought to be safe for the Tories. In previous elections the Tories have campaigned hard there but this time round they aren't anywhere to be seen.

I think this also opens up a slim opportunity in a few constituencies and I think no one is really talking about it. If there are too many con defectors in a particular area and somewhere is off the tory radar, there could be one or two shock labour victories if their vote holds up in a way that wasn't expected (LDs go red or stay red, Cons go yellow type scenario). Labour don't necessarily have to increase their votes, merely hold them and the Cons have a bigger drop off than expected to the LDs, either through Kippers not turning out or there being a stronger remain backlash than expected amongst its core voters, for Labour to grab a couple of seats.

It's difficult to tell though. Conservative HQ favours telephone canvassing. They did it very heavily in 2015 so its relatively invisible. Lab and LD campaigning is a lot more noticeable.

Tory HQ is desperate to stop this defections to the LDs by shouting about a Corbyn victory that's never going to happen. The trouble is I think a lot of yellow Tories perhaps know this is bullshit and figure they have nothing to loose as they are screwed either way.

LDs might struggle to get deposits back in Labour marginals though.

As I say, it's being touted as a predictable and huge landslide. I think that will happen but I also think there may be a few spanners in the works too.

The range of seat for the LDs I've seen is 7 to about 16. I think I'm at about 13 Atm. LD vote share up marginally on 2015 but not significantly with more deposit loses than anticipated. My gut feeling is intent is beginning to solidify so there isn't going to be much movement now unless there is something very significant that happens but I think that highly unlikely.

I'm desperately hoping whatever happens Norman Lamb survives as he is such a rarity in the work he does for health and mental health in particular but it's not looking good. He's an asset to Labour and the LDs. (As is Jess Phillips for Labour) Which is why the Conservatives have been flooding in, from surrounding areas to try and decapitate his seat. He is the anti- Jeremy Hunt. It's rather sad that good MPs for this country who almost cross party boundaries in how they benefit parliament and society as a whole are at risk in this way. I hope their personal vote carries them through.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/15/prevent-cyberattacks-tech-experts-nhs-ransomware-attack?CMP=twt_gu
To prevent more cyberattacks, we need real tech experts in government

DH would answer that very simply. "They don't pay enough, for that bullshit". And with tech people looking to move abroad - because they can - we have a shortage developing here. It was bad before but it's getting a lot worse already.

A very good developer is in high demand so can get a good wage. Even with Brexit. Especially because of Brexit. Unlike other industries...

Why would a good developer want to have a job in the public sector dealing with all its current problems and budget cuts for crap money?

Sigh. Less jobs but not enough people to the jobs we need.

Going back to workers rights, I bet there are plans to crush any possible strikes. Promises today are throwing pennies at the crowd.

And there's also this:

Anya @ anyabike
Dear The Media please don't forget the Tories are guilty of the biggest reduction in workers rights in a generation (tribunal fees)...
… a new right to time off work in certain circumstances is useless for the 70% who can’t afford to bring a tribunal claim if it’s breached
Instead of saying “look how liberal the Tories are” you should ask them “when will you stop charging people £1,200 to enforce their rights?”

Alex Brook @ neveruncertain
Don't forget the increase in the minimum employment period before a claim for unfair dismissal. Two years. Grossly under-known.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Tories promising workers rights when their imposition of, and hikes in, tribunal fees mean few can afford to enforce those rights.

Clever.

Red good analysis of the LibDem position for England - I think the election has come too soon for them because of their Brexit supporting eg SW seats. I am also a Norman Lamb fan.

In Scotland they had 11 seats in 2010 and their Remain / Remain message looks to have played well in these areas in the local elections - they could yet provide the wake up call for the SNP. Half a dozen LibDem gains added to the same or more Tory gains is entirely possible and would be much more difficult for the SNP to spin.

Tories promising workers rights when their imposition of, and hikes in, tribunal fees mean few can afford to enforce those rights.

Legal recourse to justice has been being steadily denuded for workers, women, disabled and obviously asylum seekers, again particularly over the last 7 years.

www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/tube-strikes-would-be-banned-under-tough-laws-backed-by-tories-a3476706.html

Southern Rail and tube strikes are so successful that they will be banned.

One type of regime bans strikes.

Unless they want to provoke a reaction............

All looking very breachy of the ECHR.

We will soon be looking for sanctuary cities as political and economic exiles from Pol Pot May.

Edinburgh West looks like the only serious LD possibly of a gain I can see in Scotland but I admit I'm not as familiar with Scottish politics and how it's playing out there.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-voting-age-16-right-to-vote-engaged-politics-general-election-2017-a7736091.html
Theresa May says the right to vote is not necessary to participate in politics
The Prime Minister refused to allow younger people to vote

We don't mind you having children (well we Tories judge) or paying tax or join the army or drive a lethal weapon but God forbid you should make a serious decision about your future.

Not applicable if you are an EU citizen (who is currently eligible to vote in local elections. Note you will probably lose this right soon too).

Nick Robinson @ nickrobinson
BEFORE Tories say new workers rights would destroy jobs AFTER "Vote for us to give workers new rights". The power of the ballot box ?

No they just realised that if you don't have a job you have no rights to enforce, if you are part of the gig economy you probably haven't been employed for two years so have no rights to enforce and even if you have a job and qualify for rights you probably can't afford to enforce them if you face hostility. Cos you are just grateful for having a secure job unlike everyone else.

Theresa May says the right to vote is not necessary to participate in politics
has she just given away a manifesto commitment for the 2022 election, which we won't have?

Suffrage to be limited to married men with property?

Looking again at the way Trump has and is actively seeking to manipulate the access to suffrage in US, and the 25% drop in youth accessing their vote here, we can all see which way this is going.

The poll tax was no accident.

Theresa May says the right to vote is not necessary to participate in politics

Next stop: The Enabling Act.

This morning's news dump feels like the flames have reached the second floor now but the fire alarm still isn't working.

In good news personally, the penny finally dropped with DH over the weekend regarding the post Brexit democratic deficit. He's starting to realise we are in danger of being thought of as political dissidents and says we need to look at options abroad asap.

Theresa May says the right to vote is not necessary to participate in politics

Then WTF were we doing "bringing democracy to the Middle East" ?????

Is that the sound of dead soldiers turning in their graves ?

The Enabling Act allowed the cabinet to enact legislation, including laws deviating from or altering the constitution, without the consent of the Reichstag.

How exactly does the The Enactment Act differ in reality to The Great Repeal Act?

Honest question. Can't see a great deal of difference in practice.

How exactly does the The Enactment Act differ in reality to The Great Repeal Act?

It's written in English ?

I wonder how far a spoof petition calling for Jeremy Corbyn and the other Quislings to be arrested and tried for treason after June 8th would fare ???

The underlying fact being they dared to stand against St. Theresa of May - which is high treason.

Given the standard of what passes for journalism in 2017, it wouldn't be too hard.

(Remembers the "Blackadder" court martial episode) ...

Anywhere North West of the Central Belt looks to be in play for the LibDems especially as I think there is a lot of voter regret re Charles Kennedy et al. East Dunbartonshire will be in play if Jo Swinson has kept her personal following, but could be saved for the SNP by vote split to the Tories - John Nicholson (the SNP MP is also pretty likeable).

In the same way the PLP is suffering from a lack of Scottish MPs so are the LibDems, where they were even more significant. Vince Cable is viewed by many as an honorary Scot because of his links with Glasgow Uni.

The Ian Dale predictions are interesting because they look to be under predicting seat by seat swings and so are probably the low estimate for seat changes?

I wonder how far a spoof petition calling for Jeremy Corbyn and the other Quislings to be arrested and tried for treason after June 8th would fare

LH this is not a spoof, it's on Parliament website:

Cut all public funding to Tony Blair - This to include protection & expenses

Tony Blair is costing the taxpayer millions of pounds a year in police protection, as well as blurring the line between his work and his business interests. Tony is too vocal trying to split this country asking for EU remainers to rise up against democracy, he needs to be stopped.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/186047

Tony is too vocal trying to split this country asking for EU remainers to rise up against democracy, he needs to be stopped

First they came for.........