Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

the forces offer a good pay/training package for the younger members.

To add to this, I was working in S Yorkshire in the mid seventies, at a time of high unemployment. Quite a lot of lads from the estates joined up, which was much better than being on the dole, but apart from the Troubles in N Ireland, we weren't fighting any wars. So it was a decent chance to learn a trade.

mistigri The US spends more than 2%. You may think it 'symbolic', but the defence planners, the professionals who do this day in and day out at NATO do not. More needs to be spent, commitments need to be honoured, and if the US decides to spend less than it does now, then all those who don't contribute their 2% will be screaming very loudly as they make up the shortfall.

Peregrina The rofl was at the fact that the Germans can't even do a full week of training exercises without having to go home. I am an HM Forces daughter, wife (or used to be til he retired), sister and aunt. However, part of being in HM Forces is that you might be killed, be it on a submarine, a ship, or in Afghanistan where my db did a tour. It was sad that Staff Sgt Schmid died (and why wouldn't I know who he was, I remember reading his obit and seeing his funeral, as he was a Cornish boy), but it is an inherent part of being in HM Forces. I've known that all my life. Furthermore, he was on Ops. There is no down time when you are working at operational tempo. Dh usually did 20/24 working when he was at sea, and when he was on ops whilst not at sea in purple (tri service) jobs. It goes with the territory; you work until the job is done. There is no adherence to the working time directive, or Health and Safety, how can there be when you are on active duty?

Red The UK only makes the 2% because it decided to redo how it defines its spending... we fudged the figures. Inaccurate I'm afraid. The UK figures are precisely in line with the NATO metrics. Indeed, NATO has stated that the UK meets the target two days ago. I think they might know as they set the metrics and do the maths. That is not to say the UK doesn't need to spend more on defence, it does, as SDSR was a screw up of monumental proportions, but it does hit the 2%. You can argue about whether the metrics are correct, but as NATO sets them, and the UK adheres to them, and NATO says the UK hits the 2%, then your statement doesn't hold water.

Mistigri DH was in the RN from age 18 to the day before he turned 53 and had to retire. He had a varied and enjoyable career ranging from hands on engineering on things civvies don't get to play with, to teaching undergrads and postgrads to enormous responsibilities for all the weapon engineering for a squadron of vessels on duty around the globe, to military diplomacy, and including a stint at the EUMS. There was a very clear career path to follow.

He moved appointments every couple of years, so he never got bored. The RN paid for his B.Eng , he also got his MA and his C.Eng. He got to do adventurous training in different countries, got an Offshore Yacht Master, and also took up another sporting hobby. The social life was fabulous, balls, parties, Ladies Nights, and the friends you make are there for a long long time. He avoided the jobs he didn't want to do in procurement and MOD.

I would far rather have had a happy dh, doing what he loved doing, than ask him to work in civvy street. Contrary to your assertion, he couldn't have made as an engineer what he made as a Cdr RN; the pension would not have been comparable. and neither would the lump sum. The job security wouldn't have been there either as dh had a Full Career Commission, and would have had to made a major screw up to lose his job. It's not a 9-5, though neither is the current job, but he derived enormous satisfaction from the majority of his career, and left the RN with a very wide skill set. He was in employment from the time he retired.

As for the violent death....it happens in civvy street, so not being in the Forces is no guarantee it won't happen to you.

I wish ds was interested in joining up; it is a fantastic career.

no risk of a violent death

But that's what some are in it for.

I went out with a guy who was in special forces before I was married. They don't make good money. They risk death to even qualify. Quite a number of them had come from broken families and had been in the army since they were 15/16. It's a way of life that appeals to some.

I don't know that private sector perks like a warm office, company car and private health insurance would cut it.

Conflating the 3 services, and the wide variety of different jobs/roles within them doesn't help either.
'The Army' is often used to talk about our armed forces or 'soldiers' to talk about the personnel.

The reality is that the 3 services are very different, and the RAF & Navy have far more professionally skilled personnel in the non-commissioned ranks than the army (there are certainly those roles within the army too, but the army is largely made up of 'soldiering' whereas the biggest trade group in the RAF for example is aircraft engineers).

In the RAF, the risk of 'violent death' is minimal too.
You are more likely to be checking into a hotel than living in a shell scrape.

Particularly the hotel if you are RAF Semi !!!

The RAF don't dig in, they check in....

Is there anyone out there able to understand Trump enough to translate his latest rant into English? Something about uranium.

www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/02/16/donald-trumps-grievance-filled-press-conference-annotated/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.7b0e46bec70f
Transcript here Hashi he seems to be speaking in tongues.

I always fancied being in the RAF partly for the jets and partly for the low risk.

Thanks woman. So he appeared to start using words in a normal formed fashion then his translation program broke I'm guessing

Exactly Semi Standing joke in the RN about the RAF.

‏*@jimwaterson*
It's quite hard to get people to read about UK by-elections when the other option is to stare slack-jawed at another Trump press conference.

‏*@jk*_rowling 1h
Up until an hour ago, the scariest thing I'd ever watched was Psycho. #TrumpPresser

‏*@BenDWalsh*
When you're asked about anti-Semitism, saying that the Jew who asked the question double-crossed you is not a good look.

It was sad that Staff Sgt Schmid died (and why wouldn't I know who he was, I remember reading his obit and seeing his funeral, as he was a Cornish boy), but it is an inherent part of being in HM Forces.

Obviously his widow was not unbiased, but I found her book very moving and at times made me feel angry. I felt it more than 'sad' that they weren't as well equipped as they should have been, that R & R had been cancelled, and just the shear amount of explosive devices that they had to defuse, was of a substantially greater magnitude than had been met in previous conflicts. Had they had more rest, who knows, he may still have been alive today?

It must be quite a rarified environment, Peregrina. I know there is a large electricity station not too far away and I thought it looked a little industrial. There is quite a line of pylons. Despite being near Morse country.

Then I read an article on the villages and walking trails of Oxfordshire. I imagine a nice pub lunch after a country walk would be a nice way to spend a weekend around there.

Tonight's Council By-Elections

Bollington, Cheshire East
CON
Councillor resigned in protest at decision to end school buses.
Between CONs, Independent (Bollington First), LAB, LD and Green.
The Bollington First candidate is son of a former ITN chief executive and is endorsed by Martin Bell.

On recent history it'll probably be the independent.

Failsworth East, Oldham
LAB
LAB, CON, Green, LD and UKIP.
Will probably stay Labour

Burton, East Staffordshire
LD
LD, LAB, CON, UKIP.
Don't know. This is not a LD area and the previous councillor was only LD on the council. I think it will possibly is more likely to be a LD loss rather than hold.

St Thomas, Dudley
LAB
LAB, UKIP, CON and Green
Staying Lab

Lydbrook and Ruardean, Forest of Dean Gloucestershire
UKIP
UKIP, LAB, CON, Green, LD
Totally possible anyone could get the seat (inc the greens). I doubt it will be a hold though.

Elsenham and Henham, Uttlesford Essex
TWO SEATS - both LD
LD, CON, LAB and UKIP
Apparently safe LD seat, and there isn't anything here that I can see that suggests it will change.

And tomorrow

Emmbrook, Wokingham
CON
CON, LD, LAB and UKIP
This has the look of a LD gain about it.

Oy, my late dad was career RAF, joined as an apprentice in the in the 1930s and found himself fighting with his rifle at Dunkirk. Came very near to death.
By the end of WW2, few of his mates had survived the various occasions when their bases were overrun.

In Afghanistan, about 450 UK service personnel died
In Iraq about 180 died
About 13,000 in tne 2 conflicts required hospital treatment, some dreadfully maimed for life
Help for Heroes say that 21.000 have been discharged on medical grounds, but that up to 60,000 (27%) may develop psychological problems later.
Ex squaddies have a significantly higher incidence of domestic violence, other violent crime, addiction, homelessness

A soldier at my old gym lost his leg to an IED. It was shocking to see this lad who trained with us before suddenly return to gym with one of those high-tech prosthetics

What has their sacrifice brought ?
All those ruined lives, but Afghanistan and the ME are far more dangerous than in 2001.
The oil companies and the arms manufacturers are making good profits though.

Thanks to your dad for his bravery BCF
and Peregrina agree on tragic effects of poor equipment and work conditions for the brave servicemen.

Looks like at least some MPs have moral fibre:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/16/john-bercow-backed-by-mps-across-commons

That man said this, this evening:
We're a very powerful nuclear country and so are they. I have been briefed. And I can tell you one thing about a briefing that we're allowed to say because anybody that ever read the most basic book can say it, nuclear holocaust would be like no other.

Your late father, sorry, BCF.

You may think it 'symbolic', but the defence planners, the professionals who do this day in and day out at NATO do not

The shortfall in spending by countries like Luxembourg is so tiny that if you choose to make an issue of it (as you did - Luxembourg was your example, not mine) you are choosing to make a political, ideological point not a logistical or financial one. That's not to say that I disagree with your underlying point about fulfilling commitments you have signed up for, but let's be clear about this: the Trump administration making an issue about defence spending by small European countries is political not financial.

My dad at least knew what he and his mates fought for all those years was worth it.
I lost an 18-yr-old uncle, who died in a sub in WW2. The family spoke of his sacrifice for decades after, but noone questioned the value of what he did.

In contrast, the wars for oil or "nationbuilding" have greatly increased the danger of terrorism to our country and especially to the European mainland.
That must be soul-destroying for the maimed and the bereaved.

Without the UK's nagging / inside influence, those EU countries within NATO are probably even less enthusiastic to pony up 2%

Particularly as it's becoming clear that Trump, like his proposed ambassador to the EU, would prefer to wreck the Euro and the EU - normal business practice to him, to smash a rival.

The purpose of NATO is to protect its members, but POTUS Trump is actualling threatening to harm many of them.
Would the UK be so keen on NATO if the US wanted to destroy Sterling and smash up the UK into 4 countries ? That kind of threat comes only from an enemy.

I'd like to see EU NATO members staying out of all MENA conflicts and only operating militarily within European borders.
No more joining in US wars for oil or to oppose China / Iran / anyone without a Trump hotel.
However, also increase spending, because it is not safe for Europe to be so dependent on the US.

More radical policy changes are possible if an SPD-Linke-Green coalition replaces Merkel:
Some suggest that if you have a choice between 2 fascists (Trump & Putin), choose the sane one you can buy off

Trump said at his press conf that his team is running like a "“a fine-tuned machine”
< impressed face >

These wars are not just about oil but resources in general which includes energy security and supply, minerals, water etc. Dwindling resources, population growth bring new challenges and new paranoia.

I don't think that Europe will cease military intervention in the ME, they want a finger in the resource pie. But they may do it under their own auspices without cooperation with the US.