Brexit safety net

[Niamer]

Leavers and remainers - this is for you. If you are a "GET US OUT NOW!" kind of leaver, this may not be of interest.
If we fast forward two years, the EU may just about be getting round to putting the kettle on and talking about deals. Our time will be up. So we leave with nothing.

Most reasonable people I imagine, would like a get-out clause to give us the option of remaining in the EU if Brexit has gone belly up. As a parent, I am not prepared to take gambles with my children's future, even if I am confident things will go my way.
This campaign is asking for MPs to opt for an amendment to the article 50 process that gives us the safety net to be able to remain, if the people agree that is the best option. represent-us.uk. Please, if you agree with the idea, take the time to contact your MP about it. The more pressure is put in them, the more likely they will take notice. There is a template letter to use.

Do you honestly think Germany won't want to trade with us their shiny BMWs and Mercs and all the other billlions of euros of stuff, or the French won't want to sell us their wine and cheese etc, ditto other countries? It's laughable to make such a suggestion.
Not the same thing at all.Does the UK constitute 44% of Germany's export market? Is not being able to trade favourably with one country the same as losing a single market that includes 27 other countries?

Plus, whatever Germany wants, they don't get to decide by themselves. All 28 countries have a say, and our politicians (Boris Johnson) should stop making undiplomatic, borderline-racist statements sharpish if they really want to get he best deal.

our politicians (Boris Johnson) should stop making undiplomatic, borderline-racist statements

Haven't we been told that it's just "special snowflakes" who "can't take a joke" because foreigners just don't have a sufficiently developed sense of humour, and if they take offence, that means they are administering a "punishment beating" to us?

It has been agreed we would not have to contribute to any more Eurozone bail outs. We had the power to veto an EU army.....We were the 5th largest economy, we were doing well. We are throwing it away

Its all very well saying we have a veto over bailouts, but many of us just believe the EU would find a way around that, it always does. Same with the EU army. But all that is missing the point the EU wants (and probably needs) to move in a direction of further integration and we dont, we are holding them back, we want different things. We are the 5th largest economy but the EU is holding us back. So on balance most voters thought it would be less risky being making our own way in the world.

I didn't see anything about animal welfare on the side of the red bus. We could and should have been taking a lead here, but now we have said we don't want to know.

As for fishing - when we have fished to extinction, it will be irrelevant whose laws we were obeying.

Germany has 26 other EU partners. When the eastern countries joined they were behind economically - I would imagine that there is still more room for growth there than in the UK. But no matter, we will take control again of all our own car manufacturers (what's that, they had to be rescued from bankruptcy before?)

But hey, back to the land folks, let's get planting those turnips, cabbages and cauliflowers.

we are the 5th largest economy but the EU is holding us back

Not half as much as leaving the EU will. uk.businessinsider.com/youre-in-denial-the-uk-economy-is-heading-off-a-cliff-2016-10?r=DE&IR=T

The recent Supreme Court ruling accepted both sides take the view (as do I) that once the Article 50 notice is served then as a matter of law we cannot undo it. We are likely to serve it in March so there will then be no going back no matter what might be put into the bill or any UK act. So we have about 2 months before we serve the notice.

Now there is still litigation over whether leaving the EU takes us out of the EEA however (which is the single market etc) so that remains a possibility if negotiated deals come to naught.

we are the 5th largest economy but the EU is holding us back

Keep up Jamie, after the Referndum we dropped down to 6th, being overtaken by France. Now we are 7th having been overtaken by India, much to their delight at getting one over their former Imperial masters.

I think a large part of the success of our economy was down to being a member of the EU - you're proving our point for us by pointing out that while inside the EU we were the 5th largest economy in the world. Do you think we would be in 4th place outside it? As Peregrina and Niamer point out, we're already slipping.

Do you think we would be in 4th place outside it?

Interesting point squishy! I suppose "the EU holding us back" could be interpreted like that Could we have this as a tangible prediction/target within x years?

I've never entirely been against the idea of an EU defence force, and I'm not quite clear why it's always been such a problem. Anyone fancy trying explaining that? They'll get one now without us holding them back, which is a distinctly mixed blessing to us.

Flowering There is already a defence organisation in Europe called NATO. You may have heard of it. The EU member States derive their collective defence from this, as NATO nations, bankrolled by the U.S. The majority of the European nations don't have big defence budgets, and moreover, don't want to pay for their own defence, and squeal when asked to do so.

In military terms, NATO works. There are clear chains of command, there is interoperability, and it is a tried and tested system. The nations loan their forces to NATO, but they are still national forces. If there is a European ' Defence Force', how will it work? Will the EU be standing its own Armed Forces up, owing loyalty only go the EU? Can these Forces then be used in recalcitrant member States? Who would control these Forces? Juncker, the EP, the High Representative? The EU already has a military staff which, surprise, surprise, works very much along NATO lines, although the EUMS is many magnitudes smaller. Who would pay for the European Defence Force? Will the EU want their own nuclear weapons?

Interesting questions, thank you. I guess I assumed it would work like a localised NATO and got no further.

deranging No, it was never going to get further, especially with the UK in the EU, but even with it not in. Any proposals were going to run up against the issue that NATO, creaking with age, and now with worries about Trumps self interested (and I use that in the singular, as in satisfying his ego) stream of consciousness approach to Presidency, still has the full support of the majority of EU politicians. The problem is that as a messy institution, the EU often has lots of proposals and ideas being floated either for mutual or national benefit. They are then subject to debate and the veto of 27 countries. A number of proposals have been put forward on EU security, either because of economies of scale / coordination / joint procurement, but the ones being implemented have been approved by the U.K., who were never going to approve an EU army, because they are sensible and mutually beneficial, and compliment NATO. Other proposals such as the Hungarians pushing for a border force do not get anywhere.

However of course the Eurosceptics (and Scary is one) have exploited these discussions of proposals, and lobbying of certain politicians, to exploit nationalist sentiments in the fear of an EU army. This article from back in September, quoting expert Geoffrey Van Orden, actually an extreme eurosceptic and armchair general is an example. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/06/europe-forges-ahead-with-plans-for-eu-army/ Compare with for e.g. fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/ As a result I consulted an actual retired NATO general as well as reading around and found that as with all realities of government, the reality is that the messy process of democracy and politics was actually achieving what it always did best in normal times and arriving at pragmatic solutions to the issues. We are not in normal times though so propaganda is getting it's way.....

I might add that the signals coming out of Europe are that whatever happens in the coming negotiations on trade and other political issues security is effectively off the table. Indeed in contrast to the bullish talk on trade and other issues. They would wish to work with us on security and so we would effectively continue to have a veto on any proposals that ran contrary to UK interests.

EU certainly is messy with the conflict between national and collective interests - it has to be really. Expansion increased the conflict, making it more difficult to recognise what is collective.

I'm glad to hear that we haven't totally alienated our allies yet!

Marking place to catch up later.