Can we have a NI Brexit thread?

[Burntcustard]

I am ex-NI, now living in London after 20 years away. Having grown up near the border, with memories of nighttime evacuations and and the constant hum of helicopters, I couldn't wait to leave.

I look at the implications of Brexit and I'm worried. May may say that she wants to have no hard border, but how will that be possible with leaving the customs union? The only practical solution I can see to that is to have the border at the ferry ports.

What is the mood over there? Do the DUP still think Brexit is great?

I wonder could there be a Northern Ireland dual state, part of the uk and at the same time part of ROI too, which would mean that it still remains within the EU, almost an independent state - the best way I can describe it would be similar to the Vatican in Italy, i.e. Or a country with its own power making policy, similar to the us system of states?

As a party the DUP supported Brexit, well they had to support the British line, fair enough.

But on the ground, given that the ballot is anonymous, I doubt many of their supporters went with Brexit frankly.

What about the farmers and CAP and their monthly cheques from the EU. Do you think Westminster will sanction similar payments?

That will not happen anymore under Brexit, and that is just one point in all this.

I think you can say with some certainty that Westminster won't want to stump up the equivalent of monthly EU cheques. Cornwall CC were also asking if their EU payments would be replaced by ones from Westminster and were given a dusty answer.

Extrabiotin

There CAP has been replaced by wood pellets.

Extrabiotin, the British line was not Brexit, it was an open vote, not fair enough, they should've taken a more pro NI line. Plenty of Conservatives/Labour etc Brits voted Remain!

Cleebope thanks, my ignorance of NI is shameful, but learning a lot on this thread. Thanks.

Extrabiotin... On the contrary I'd say those who voted to leave were primarly from unionist backgrounds and therefore towing the party line.

This pic depicts the strength of the leave vote. The darker the blue the higher the percentage. The lighter areas are all predominantly nationalist. You do the math.

I think the estimates were that 90% of Catholics voted Remain, while around 60-65% of those with a Protestant background voted Leave. Quite why the latter was so high I frankly find both puzzling and depressing. As I said on the other thread if the result of a hard Brexit is border controls between NI and Britain that would be karma.

Burntcustard... it's all about feeling more British, because there's nothing more important than being British... bar not being Irish, obviously.

Sigh.

It would be less laughable if the rest of the Uk gave two shits, but they don't.

I have to say this interview with Ian Paisley Jr on Martin McGuinness was really refreshing and gave me hope for the future. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38686420

Whilst I'm no fan of McGuinness, harking back to old wrongs does nothing to help build bridges between the communities to give young people a future. In that respect, it was depressing to see the opposite line penned in today's Sunday Times by a writer whose father was a prominent anti-Good Friday Agreement campaigner. Same old lazy intransigence.

Kudos to the peacemakers. Burntcustard
Mr Paisley, son of former first minister Dr Ian Paisley, said Mr McGuinness's "remarkable journey not only saved lives, but made the lives of countless people better".

As the women's marches seemed to go down well and peacefully and with no arrests, maybe it's time for women's peace marches for NI in all of Britain.

Mr Paisley, son of former first minister Dr Ian Paisley, said Mr McGuinness's "remarkable journey not only saved lives, but made the lives of countless people better".

How impressive to see him say that. We could do with some more people willing to make such journeys on this side of the Irish Sea. How amazing that McGuinness and Paisley Snr could forge a friendship. Such things give me just a little glimmer of hope.

There was never a hard border and there never can be, everyone in border areas knows twenty different back roads to use.I remember smuggling bottles of vodka and beer in out swimming bags as the customs officers didn't search kids bags.God knows what the solution is going to be it's a cluster fuck.

This pic has been doing the rounds the last few days.

Fuckoff I will revise this as a zombie thread when the border goes up for a map of all those back roads. We certainly didn't find any in the 70s -90s ! Got a bloody interrogation every time we crossed over.

News just in that abrotain must have parliamentary approval before triggering article 50. Interesting to see if Sinn Fein will take seats in parliament to vote against it

That was my thought too and what I said on the other thread! They seem to be in a difficult position.

On the one hand, their position on abstentionism is clear and that's the mandate they were voted in with. Nobody can say the constituents voting and getting SF didn't know what they were getting. And anything with the potential to destabilise things and make NI poorer, which Brexit obviously does, also makes a united Ireland more likely.

On the other hand, there is a correlation between areas with a high SF vote and a high Remain vote. Logically we have to presume that SF voters leaned Remain. And, silly as it sounds, not all of them will actually want a united Ireland. Or not want one now, at least. Given that a united Ireland in the near future has realistically been off the table for a while, some people have voted for tribal and/or policy support reasons, whilst secure in the knowledge that their vote wouldn't take NI out of the UK.

Call me a sad politics nerd but I watched the whole of yesterday's Northern Ireland select committee meeting with two customs law experts, here for anyone who is genuinely interested in the issues faced by NI and in particular what will happen at the NI/ Ireland border.

www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/14a986d6-5d11-4797-a018-b924c496724b

It was fascinating, if only because it was an eye opener with regards to the limited intelligence and knowledge of some MPS. The Chair, Laurence Robertson, and Nigel Mills (both conservatives) are actually genuinely and eye-openingly thick! As well as astonishingly ill-informed about the basics of trade. Ditto one of the Unionist Party members whose name I didn't note. Lady Hermon (independent peer) came over as intelligent but clueless on the detail. Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) was the only one who impressed me with his grasp of the issues.

Note that I haven't checked where any of these stand on the leave/ remain issue, although for two of them (Robertson and Mills) the questions were leading enough to be able to guess. Lady Hermon and McDonnell came over as much less partisan and much more concerned about the detail of how brexit will work.

The discussion was almost entirely about cross border trade, not movements of people. The latter is relatively easy to solve, the former fiendishly difficult. It's complex: I'm reasonably knowledgeable about trade (I'm an economist working for a large UK manufacturer and exporter) but I didn't know all of this. None of the MPs present, with the exception of McDonnell, seemed to be aware of the complications ahead of this Select Committee meeting and, worryingly, Mills and Robertson seemed unable to follow what was being said at least in part.

Much of the discussion revolved around what will happen, in practice, at the NI-Ireland border for businesses either exporting or importing goods, or shipping goods (mainly agricultural goods) across the border for processing, Some goods cross the border three or more times at different stages of processing.

The message was that unless NI remains in the EU customs union, there WILL be a hard border for goods. This is a requirement of EU customs law that Ireland will have to implement whether they like it or not. It means customs posts on the Irish side; whether the UK puts customs on their side is entirely up to the UK, but not doing so will cause losses of revenue to the UK exchequer due to fraud. There was much talk about the implications of this both practically (time to cross the border - customs declaration required to be made electronically at least one hour before, plus the time taken with physical stops at the border) and with regard to the costs for cross border trade - estimated at a minimum of 20-80€ per crossing.

There is no easy solution to this: the alternative is for NI to remain in the EU customs union, but in this case, the hard border moves to the NI-GB border. This makes more practical sense, because the volume of individual crossings is lower, but less financial sense, because the value of trade is higher.

Conclusion: NI is screwed by brexit every which way. Unless both NI and the rUK remain in the Customs Union.

Misti I didn't watch that but what you say accords with what I thought - that we are going to have to have a hard border.

I don't think the UK is going to remain in the customs union so unless we want a totally porous border it has to be some kind of hard border.

Yes, the customs border did seem to me to be an almost impossible issue though my knowledge is pretty flimsy. I think it will ultimately lead to a massive loss of jobs in NI as Ireland seek to minimise the manufacture chain issues.

Mind you, you can't really get anything to eg Donegal without going through NI so it will have a big impact on rural/regional pricing in areas like that. Not to mention that you're going to have to have some custom stop-and-check capacity (for lorries/good vehicles etc) which will inevitably be a target for the terrorists who are just itching for an excuse to go back 30 years....

I also watched some of the previous evidence-collecting session in which the committee talked to representatives of local government and businesses in the Derry area (which must be the area most at risk of serious brexit-related problems, because of its history and geography).

I must say that I was impressed by the calibre of the people giving evidence on the Irish side. It is a shame that our parliament could not put together a committee of MPs capable of being less partisan and more knowledgeable about the realities of NI politics and trade. Some of the attendees appeared to be asleep for part of the session!

My takeaway from all this is that the House of Commons is woefully unprepared for the realities of brexit in NI, and that the MPs to whom the issue has been delegated are not really up to the task (with the possible exception of McDonnell).

Interesting thoughts from Dennis Bradley on a radio show today, putting a hard border in is impossible - the last time there was a hard border in NI there 40,000 troops here, as well as 14,000 police to maintain the hard border (I think he said 400 miles of border but it may have been 300). The real estate required to man a border has been sold off, i.e. Beleek, strabane, coshquin etc etc. So that causes the problem with how to man the border.

The other thought that was put forward was have a common travel area on the island of Ireland, and move the border to the ports/airports, although this would essentially make the island one unit, with British Citizens in the North having to show British passports to travel within Britain

It is really Irinic that the DUP push for Brexit to unite the union seems to be making the Unioun weaker, and pushing a united ireland closer.

Oh and did anyone see the Diane Dodds speech to the European that was answered by Paul B? Who mentioned that the penny was beginning to drop with the DUP?

My takeaway from all this is that the House of Commons is woefully unprepared for the realities of brexit in NI

Yeah, I mean that kind of goes without saying really. In that, they are truly being representative of their constituents.

Good article on Ireland and Brexit, especially with regard to food supply chain issues and animal movements

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0207/850683-tony-connelly-brexit/

Take-home from the above article: there is now recognition by both governments that leaving the customs union means there WILL be a hard border. Doesn't seem to have percolated down to the (N) Irish public yet though ...