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Brexit

Juncker proposes EU military headquarters

81 replies

topsy777 · 14/09/2016 13:13

Juncker proposes EU military headquarters

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37359196

Smallfox - just wondering your "I knew what I was doing" have foreseen this?

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topsy777 · 17/09/2016 14:41

This is what was said in public though

"the UK’s decision to quit the EU demonstrates that the slow pace of regional integration of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is correct and that top-down integration is not sustainable.

“It [Brexit] is also a vindication of ASEAN’s steadfast focus on trade and investment and avoidance of single currency and other steps that have political implications,”

Doesn't look like they want to copy EU wholesale.

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whatwouldrondo · 17/09/2016 15:25

The first paragraph was in relation to how to achieve greater integration, not if. It was talking about having to ensure that they carried people's hearts and minds with them.

We did avoid the single currency!

Here is ASEANs aims, they are not just economic by any means The first paragraph was in relation to how to achieve greater integration, not if. It was talking about having to ensure that they carried people's hearts and minds with them.

We did avoid the single currency!

Here is ASEANs aims, with an underlying emphasis on shared political values based on the shared (Confucian) values of the ten member countries. It is aiming for more than just economic cooperation but also the sort of shared collaboration in Science, education and training. Culture, security etc that we benefitted from, and are losing out on already even before we actually exit or will lose out on when we are out of the EU. The site asean.org also details executive functions with responsibility for delivering those aims.

To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations;
To promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries of the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter;
To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic, social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative fields;
To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in the educational, professional, technical and administrative spheres;
To collaborate more effectively for the greater utilisation of their agriculture and industries, the expansion of their trade, including the study of the problems of international commodity trade, the improvement of their transportation and communications facilities and the raising of the living standards of their peoples;
To promote Southeast Asian studies; and
To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organisations with similar aims and purposes, and explore all avenues for even closer cooperation among themselves.

whatwouldrondo · 17/09/2016 15:26

Sorry about that the repeat text, I am struggling a bit posting on my phone on the hoof

topsy777 · 17/09/2016 16:03

wwr

Text - no worry.

Confucian Confucius Value - not meant in any ill manner but you need to look at the history of the ASEAN members. They are not vaguely Confucius overall. Singapore is really based on the pre WW2 English model (one British PM called Harry the the best bloody Englishman East of Suez), the Confucius bits were added later. Indonesia has a strong Islamic influence and Malaysia is probably a quarter English, half Islam and a Quarter Confucius. The Thai are just the Thai. I leave the rest to you.

If you follow the politics there, you will find that they resent political interferences. No matter what the charter says, there is no chance of political integration.

It probably will get dragged into ASEAN+3, China OBOR schemes which are all about trade and money, minus the politics part.

So out of the EU aquis,

Free movement of goods - yes
Free movement of persons - No (they have a scheme for the highly skilled that does not work in practise. The existing work permit works better)

Freedom to provide services - yes
Free movement of capital - yes
Company law - partial
Competition policy - no ( else all the GLC and slush funds will have no fun)
Agriculture - no
Fisheries - no
Transport policy - partial
Taxation - no ( ASEAN VAT - no chance)
Economic and Monetary Union - Economics Not to a 'union' level. Monetary union = no chance
Statistics - unlikely
Social policy and employment - no chance

Science and research - yes
Education and training - yes
Telecommunication and information technologies - unlikely
Culture and audio-visual policy - unlikely - (how are they going to ban films they don't like)
Regional policy and co-ordination of structural instruments - maybe
Environment - some smoke and mirror maybe
Consumers and health protection - some 
Cooperation in the field of Justice and Home Affairs -  no chance
Customs union - yes
External relations - a la carte
Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) - foreign - no chance.   Security - some.
Financial control - no chance
Financial and budgetary provisions - no chance
Institutions - no chance - proper AMLR would be good.
Others - 

Energy
Industrial policy
Small and medium-sized enterprise

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whatwouldrondo · 17/09/2016 17:33

I wasn't claiming that ASEAN was a mini EU. Clearly any alliance, any government for that matter, arises from its historical and cultural context which is exactly why marching into Middle Eastern countries under the flag of democracy was such an unmitigated disaster. I was just highlighting that the benefits of regional political and economic alliances with countries of like political values, and the Confucian emphasis on stability is one of the main sources of commonality in an alliance of countries where some are one party communist states, albeit run by pragmatists rather than dogmatists. They were formed as it says on their tin to be " a concert of Southeast Asian nations, outward looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity" ,Indeed the new leaders in Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar, two of which are communist states, who were once regarded as the Johnny come lately poor relations are seen as bringing some refreshing new thinking to the alliance at a time when Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia are mired in economic and political issues internally.

However the point is that the rest of the world's leaders apart from Trump and Putin thought it was better for Britain, Europe, the world and themselves for UK to remain in the EU and many leaders including those of ASEAN countries and China, said so.

There are lots of things I would not defend about the EU but many many more that I would. I think without the benefits of full membership our economy will shrink, the brain drain has already started and our country is now divided and a much deminished society in which to live. Some of this was put in train already by an inward and backward looking self serving government who largely delivered the vote by making the EU and immigration the scapegoat for the effects of their policies so I have little faith in their ability to limit the damage in the negotiations. The idea that it is worth it because the 27 countries were anywhere even close to conceding their government and national and cultural identity to a superstate is complete rubbish.

There actually were good reasons and real benefits in having an EU army but only in the context of being more effective in doing what we already do, and will continue to do, in the cause of common peacekeeping and defence. However for the very reason that the 27 will always want to preserve their national identities and will therefore always have conflicting priorities it wasn't going to happen. You cannot spin the current status quo in the military plan into the certainty that Europe was heading to become a superstate, indeed the political status quo and the much deminished proposals that have emerged as the agreed military plan is actually proof it wasn't!

topsy777 · 17/09/2016 19:11

whatwouldrondo

I see your points.

" without the benefits of full membership our economy will shrink,"
As you said earlier, we will have to work hard either way to pay for the iphones. We will see.

"You cannot spin the current status quo in the military plan into the certainty that Europe was heading to become a superstate"

Nothing is certain of course. We are presented with similar evidence and we try to guess where the structure is heading. I made my guess and you made yours. It could turn into a paradise or break up in chaotic manner. We plan, we hedge and we act in ways we anticipate and wait for the outcome.

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