Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Its a decision this country CAN NOT afford, especially the poor, whether they realise it or not Chalalala.

indy100.independent.co.uk/article/the-european-countries-with-the-most-citizens-living-abroad--ZyEkHvVt8W
Map of EU countries with the most citizens living abroad.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/77755/diane-abbott-suggests-labour-nec-members-privately
Diane Abbott says the NEC are bitching about Corbyn behind his back.

www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/jul/29/jeremy-corbyn-im-very-optimistic-video-interview?CMP=twt_gu
Labour can win a snap election says Corbyn in interview to Owen Jones (the journo!)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/29/whatever-happened-to-the-toryelectionfraud-investigation?CMP=twt_gu
The on going 2015 Election Fraud investigation

It just keep coming today.
I need to go out and get pokeballs but its raining. I'm in a bad mood.

I think I'm going to invest in research into crystal balls. I think there is an untapped market to be had and much demand for it right now.

Its a decision this country CAN NOT afford, especially the poor

I think that's probably correct

whichever way you look at it, controls on immigration will be negotiated for a price - it comes down to how much May is willing to hurt which parts of the economy, in exchange for what specific controls

I suspect the type of deal they get (or are denied) will steer some of the Brexit thinking in the new year.

which the EU is very aware of... the Swiss have become a proxy negotiating tool, which I understand they're not at all happy about

So we end up back exactly where Cameron had us...

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/owen-bennett/nick-clegg-brexit_b_11220406.html
Be glad Cleggs back. I hadn't released his background.

www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/theresa-mays-whirlwind-diplomatic-tour-in-her-first-two-week?utm_term=.gdQY9vXJp#.sidqjYVDB
May's Grand Tour. A clue to the Brexit maze?

That article on Clegg is very interesting. It is a good job the LDs have someone who can take this on, because as the article points out, there's no shadow International Trade Minister, and Emily Thornberry is shadowing both Johnson and Davis. I'm far from convinced that she's capable of shadowing even one of them properly, the idea of her being able to do both is something of a joke.

NC's wife has also got experience of EU trade negotiations and has made some very useful comments on how things will (and won't) work.

Oh, and I suspect it is less about deadline day and more about flights booked for tomorrow as the reason for so much stuff coming out today!!

Yup, probably 80% of the UK electorate would vote to cut immigration - if that could be done without the UK being penalised economically

This 80% varies not in their wish, but what price they are prepared to pay for it.
As I posted upthread, a finance wonk on another forum estimated that a hard Brexit - which would guarantee complete UK legal rights to control immigration as it wishes - would cost 20-30 % GDP
(which he said would still leave us richer than many other EU countries)

The UK has very different attitudes wrt Eu immigration, compared to how the rest of the EU views this:
That's mainly because the UK is the only EU country whose population is increasing - other Western EU countries in particular are desperately worried about shrinking population and the "Japan effect" on their economy.

Germany, the extreme case of low birth rate, is expected to have a population fall from over 80 million to 60 million in a generation.
Hence Merkel's deperate gamble: free entry to all refugees (before she was forced to stop this, both by her own frightened citizens and by other EU countries)

If anyone really wants to see UKIP win the next GE, then doing a Merkel, i.e. inviting 1 million refugees, would do it.
However, Free Movement of EU workers looks like something a majority in the UK would tolerate, if that were the only way to avoid seriously damaging the economy.

yes I also never realised that Clegg was a former EU trade negotiator. I'd probably read it somewhere, but this was in the pre-referendum world when the words "trade negotiations" would have made my eyes glaze over

I miss him now

Conservative Propaganda from the 1980s. It almost seems prophetic now.

On the Hinkley delay, TM's chief of staff wrote this about the potential security issues of Chinese involvement in strategic infrastructure last year.

Interesting perspective on the UK's attitude towards immigration: "That's mainly because the UK is the only EU country whose population is increasing"

Scotland's population is static at around 5.3million (it has only increased c.100,000 in the last 50 years ) and with an aging demographic, it needs more immigration. It was one of the issues that was raised during the Indyref.

Germany, the extreme case of low birth rate, is expected to have a population fall from over 80 million to 60 million in a generation.

So it would be to Germany's advantage for the UK to curb some immigration - if it caused a significant number of East Europeans to migrate there instead? I could imagine that East Europeans would assimilate into Germany relatively easily, especially the former East Germany.

One thing people rarely mentioned about the UK, but makes it attractive for younger immigrants, is something we won't lose - we speak English, which has been the language of Trade since the days of the Empire, and of the US when it gained pre-eminence. It will be some considerable while before another language replaces it, IMO.

Why can't Germany try to attract all the Eastern European immigrants? Britain doesn't want them, Germany needs them

There you go, solved Brexit for you

I see Peregrina beat me to it

US election:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/07/29/us/elections/trump-clinton-pence-kaine-speeches.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
Analysis of speeches at conferences. Remember positive is usually good and voters usually respond better to it. (Remain went all 'Project Fear' on us and lost)

Also, Clinton appears to have got a good conference bounce, especially in key swing states. This is good. If she hadn't got one, then Trump would almost certainly win.

This is on the whole, a positive thing for Clinton, but I wouldn't read too much into poll leads at the moment. The important bit is she got a good bounce. It will even out in a couple of weeks.

WRT immigration, we've also had a tetchy recent history on immigration due to the collapse of the empire and having to clean up our messes there. I remember reading ages ago (pre-2000) about objections to immigration, but the objections particularly being to immigrants from the West Indies, India and Pakistan. No one minded much about the white immigrants from Australasia or South Africa.

This hostility is clearly still in evidence but has been increased to include Eastern European migrants too. There appears to be huge dislike of immigrants who arrive here, work hard and do well for themselves...

I have just discovered that I was wrong earlier, Labour do in fact have a Shadow International Trade secretary, it is Barry Gardiner, who is also shadowing Europe, Energy and Climate Change.

He seems to have been criticising the Hinkley deal as being bad, but also criticising the government for not going ahead with it:

Barry Gardiner ‏@BarryGardiner 2h2 hours ago
Tories in chaos over #HinkleyPoint. After negotiating bad deal for billpayers, May's shambolic move risks investment, jobs & energy security

Which seems to have confused another Labour MP (Luton South):
Gavin Shuker ‏@gavinshuker 47m47 minutes ago
What is Labour's position on Hinkley C?

The sad thing is that I remember being taught in school that Britain had managed its post-colonial immigration so much better than France, with Indian/Pakistani immigration being held up as examples of tolerant, successful integration of immigrant populations (as compared to the French disastrous ghettoisation of North African populations). I remember seeing Sikh police officers (inconceivable in France) and thinking, wow, that's how it's done.

In the meantime, slowly but surely the "left-wing" French government adopts all of the far right's proposals, one by one

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/29/french-pm-manuel-valls-considers-ban-on-foreign-funded-mosques

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 17m17 minutes ago
Two policemen just shot in San Diego, one dead. It is only getting worse. People want LAW AND ORDER!

Trump's CAPITAL LETTERS. Wonder if he's a FREEMAN OF THE LAND

I think he means the TV show. I was upset when it was cancelled too.

Swedish it is surely only a matter of time until he brings up legal names

dr can you imagine when he realises that actually crime is not resolved in 20 minutes and the court case finished 20 minutes later all on the same day? how will he cope?!

I've also often wondered why Germany didn't more actively encourage immigration from other EU - even fund it, since they were prepared to invest so heavily in accommodation, schools & training for the Syrian refugees.

My conclusion:
since all the other EU countries (except the Uk) seem also to have a demigraphic problem, if not so severe as Germany's, I suspect it is being a "good European", not wanting to rob their neighbours of their most energetic young people.

My solution:
Invite more people from the UK - maybe as part of a Brexit deal.

It could really help some Leavers accept Free EEA Movement, if 1 or 2 million say of ZHC or unemployed British people, who currently can't afford to move, were sponsored to do so.
Germany has brilliant apprenticeships and training schemes
Brits wouldn't be any less likely to know German than Syrians (I went to Germany knowing only the words "ja, nein, schweinhund" !)

Or Castle. Where ever you are in the world, you can catch an episode of Castle.