Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

BigChoc whatever we did I think the UK has to do more and more importantly be seen to be doing a lot more for Syrian refugees rather than taking an attitude that sees it as them as less than human in someway.

TM is probably enjoying a honeymoon bounce (sounds indelicate !) but that poll would probably give the Tories a 150+ majority
It is even more worrying for Labour when one extracts the figures for England alone:

England
Con 47%
Lab 26%
UKIP 15%
LD 7%
Tory lead over Lab = 21% in England !

Red The problem is that the current atrocities are making many Brits (and others in the EU) regard Muslims as less than human.

Just read any current Mumsnet thread on an attack - no, on 2nd thoughts, nobody else read those;
far too many horrid comments about Muslims in general, rather than the ISIS death cult psychos.
Several Mumsnet Brexiters are atill posting things they wouldn't have felt able to, pre-referendum

Oh yes I should add that civil unrest in the USA is far far more likely under a Trump government than a Clinton one, simply because of the race issue. Again this is good for Putin.

More on the subject here:
uk.businessinsider.com/russia-internet-trolls-and-donald-trump-2016-7?r=US&IR=T

Oh and there's this:
www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html
It has gone by a few names, but I will refer to it by its best known: the Internet Research Agency. The agency had become known for employing hundreds of Russians to post pro-Kremlin propaganda online under fake identities, including on Twitter, in order to create the illusion of a massive army of supporters; it has often been called a “troll farm.”

I bet you will find in the next few years that there will be moves to restrict social media by requiring a verification of identity.

I wouldn't be surprised if a move like this will come under home security about tackling hate crime since cracking down on civil liberties and finding new ways to keep an eye on people was something May liked. Rather than going for the old terrorism angle, I think this approach is the one that liberals will object to less since it doesn't target particular minority groups. In fact it actively 'helps them'.

Hmmm..... what was Amber Rudd on about today?

Big Choc, I really won't disagree there. But that's the entire point of ISIS. Psychological warfare to provoke that exact reaction and destabilise.

If you can't see that, and you bite, you are part of the problem sadly. And sadly, I think its only going to get a lot worse with an ever horrifying escalation of vile attacks to disturb a population which haven't been exposed to the horror of war and been sheltered by media censorship (both from government and from self censorship).

You can not fight this head on, by trying to crack down on it alone. You need counter psychological warfare and action to 'anti-Western sentiments'.

Blithely ignoring the large majority of the public wrt immigration won't go well - THAT has been the great mistake of the broad centre for several years
First they don't do as they were told on Brexit. Now maybe those voters - who don't usually bother - will start voting in presidential elections and GEs.

There is no advantage in bringing a few refugees to Europe when far more of them could be helped for the same cost by building more decent refugee centres like the one shown in Jordan, which has decent housing, its own hospital, bakery etc

I thought the Independent Article showed Pollyanna levels of naivety and demonstrated all the worst traits of bleeding heart liberalism. I agree with you Red that a lot more needs to be done to help Syrian refugees but I agree with Bigchoc that Germany has gone about it completely the wrong way. The migrant return agreement with Turkey only serves to compound the previous error.

DH and his work colleagues were discussing the plight of the migrant families relocated on the Isle of Bute. There were several news articles expressing their disappointment that they were in a remote community "full of old people waiting to die". I am an urban Glaswegian whose great aunt had a holiday home on the Isle of Bute. I have every sympathy with their pov. Sadly this was not the tone of the red top articles which were numerous and full of dog whistle undercurrent.

This is a much more positive and balanced article

www.buteman.co.uk/news/local-headlines/i-love-the-island-and-its-people-1-4186910

I would still rather be in Glasgow.

I said a while back that I think DC's policy on Syrian refugees was imo his finest hour and I stand by it. Humza Yousaf of the SNP has been lamentably absent from the Scottish domestic forum recently because he has been doing so much work on trying to get this right.

All the Anti Russia talk makes me very uncomfortable. It is not so long ago that the US and the IMF were throwing money at the Russian oligarchs to try to force the pace of change in the post Glasnost era.

I watched the athletics coverage at the weekend with a deep sense of unease. Loads of talk about state sponsored drugs cheats in Russia with barely a mention of the numerous US drug cheat athletes who have been reinstated after bans. No mention of the claims and evidence of institutionalised cheating in the US private sector set up, including the set up Mo Farah uses.

My kids have several half Russian friends who travel back and forth all the time. Their impression of modern Russia is very different from the one presented in the msm and lamentably in the Western political arena.

I am awake and ranting because the William Hague article has me full of rage . He appears not to have moved on from his days as a precocious child of Thatcher and no amount of do gooding with Angelina can disguise it.

Norman Tebbit has moved on from his "get on your bike" comments of the past. He spoke out forcefully and effectively to stop the cuts to TC . (He also speaks very persuasively from personal experience on the need to provide better support for the disabled and their carers).

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11969651/This-tax-credits-fiasco-would-never-have-happened-under-Margaret-Thatcher.html

Like WH, IDS and Michael Portillo are also Thatcher's children. Even they do not suffer from his level of myopia and regularly talk about Conservative and Blair government failure in welfare policy; private and public sector investment policy; infrastructure policy; regulation of capital markets; international trade, development and defence policy. They do not shrug their shoulders in the face of Schumpeterian waves of technological change and globalisation.

In short I agree with Hester

Red I am a 2015 Labour voter in Scotland. The figures you quote do not surprise me. However they do not indicate an anti JC stance. Rather there is disappointment that he allows others within the PLP to speak against him (HB to over Syria) and incredulity at the reaction of the PLP to him in general (Trident being the latest in a long line). His Leadership has thrown up just how different the PLP view of the LP is from my Scottish one - perhaps unfair as it is missing 50 Scottish Labour MPs, many of whom had views similar to his own, because of Jim Murphy and co's mishandling of the Scottish Referendum. At least JC learned the lesson about not sharing platforms with the Tories.

What a fantastic thread! I've learnt a lot; thanks everyone. I'm particularly interested to hear the views of so many Scottish posters.
Worried about going on holiday though: there'll be so much to catch up with on my return!

This previously posted article:
www.independent.co.uk/voices/how-angela-merkels-open-door-immigration-policy-protects-germany-from-terrorism-in-the-long-run-a7156756.html

Makes an interesting point, but where does that leave the UK? It's hardly a refugee-welcomer...

I think my thoughts echo howabout's on Russia

I know someone who used to work in US military intelligence (not high up), and who specialised in Eastern Europe/Russia. He thinks that American officials are still caught in the old pattern of seeing Russia as the "bad guy". Putin is a right-wing nationalist borderline dictator, but he's not an ideologist, his aim as a political leader is not to destroy the west or liberal politics - it's to further Russia's economic and political interests.

I also think it's true that western media is biased when it comes to presenting Russia's point of view. Not necessarily on purpose, it's just deeply embedded in our collective psyche that we're the good guys and they're the villains, and we see everything through that lens. Even when they actually have some fair points.

Disclaimer, this is just my very general sense, my detailed knowledge of Russian foreign policy is limited to watching President Petrov on House of Cards

Stats on Trump's wall here. Presume this is one source of mass employment - a New Deal.

www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/07/daily-chart-16?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/theeconomicsofdonaldtrumpswall

Agree about the danger of reverting to Russia = Bad, West = Good. But it's important to keep a eye on who is funding who.

Spotted Steve Woolfe on the news. Saw this last night.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/steven-woolfe-ukip_uk_5797b95ee4b02508de478dc7

Am sure UKIP will find a way around that.

sorry just catching up on all the interesting posts

I think I have to view it this way. What does Russia want? Or should I say Putin? Is it control of the whole of Europe? Or is it just control of Eastern Europe?

I think this is the question, isn't it - what are Putin's ultimate goals. This article suggests a few:

1. return to what Russia sees as its "natural" borders. It's Russia's view that its current borders are "unnatural" (presumably because they don't include territories with many ethnic russians), and insufficient to "guarantee a reasonable level of national security". This would mean incorporating some territories (parts of Georgia, Crimea) and asserting political influence on others (Ukraine).

2. the US out of Europe - hence Putin's opposition to NATO and to the EU, which he sees as an American creature. Hence his support for Brexit, echoing the old French view that Britain was a Trojan Horse for the US in Europe. "The response to Brexit of Boris Titov, a member of the Putinist elite, was telling: Brexit 'will separate Europe from the Anglo-Saxons…this is not the independence of Britain from Europe but of Europe from the US.'"

3. the emergence of a "Eurasian Union" that would be a reconstituted Russian Empire (Russia + central Asian states as protectorates). This Eurasian Union would work in partnership with a German-led EU, to create a "Greater Europe" free of US influence.

www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/07/08/What-does-Putin-want.aspx

Say what you will, the man has a vision

The other thing the article suggests is that Putin is basically driven by the national humiliation of the Cold War loss, and wants a revenge "win" against the US and to prove to the world that Russia is a Great Power.

on the Independent article, I think it's right to state that France's ghettoizing of immigrants/rejection of islamic culture is only fueling terrorism. But it's also very naive to state that Germany's migrants policy has been enough to win it the goodwill of all would-be terrorists. It's really not that simple.

Bit surprised (appalled) to see pro- Putin comments here!

Ask a Ukrainian what they think?

There's stuff in Twitter about Assanges Russian support and his antisemitism. Quel surprise.

Regarding western views of Russia, things are ok for people who are relatively wealthy and not actively opposed to Putin. However, I know several journalists and academics who have been harassed, imprisoned and otherwise hounded out of the country for daring to oppose the government. The Putin government is a dictatorship, some of their actions in e.g., Ukraine and Syria amount to war crimes. Dissidents disappear or are found tortured and killed. All of this is well documented by international human rights organisations. Comparisons to the US are irrelevant (in the sense of "but the US do this and that too"). Russia's government is not a benevolent observer by any stretch of the imagination. I for one would be very worried (but not surprised) to hear that Russia is trying to influence the US election and had a hand in the Brexit campaign.

Helmetbymidnight my comments are absolutely not pro-Putin.

Of course Putin is a hateful anti-democratic man, of course he's dangerous, and I don't want him secretly involved in US or European politics any more than you do. It doesn't mean we can't try to understand his motivations and aims, instead of assuming he's just irrationally evil.

I agree Chalalala, motivations for terrorism in different nations are more complicated than just the relative welcomes to refugees. (I refer back to my previous post about mental health as a factor.)
It's much harder now to analyse this as it seems Isis aren't directly instigating/ planning all attacks, but encouraging/ relying on individuals to take their own actions, then 'claiming' them for the cause. So there must necessarily be a greater multiplicity of causal factors.

Mm, Of course it's important to explore/understand putin's motives...

That's quite different from being unconfortable with anti-Russia talk and suggesting things are much better there than we are told (based on some Russian friends).

I also don't think there is anti Russia bias in our media- it's more of a 'oh shit them again' bias, let's talk about somewhere else...'

But it's also very naive to state that Germany's migrants policy has been enough to win it the goodwill of all would-be terrorists. It's really not that simple.
I very much agree with this. The danger for Germany is now whether they can cope with the influx. I think long term if they end up ghettoising refugees and refugees face a lot of discrimination as a result of current attacks, then the cycle will start again. There in is Merkel's problem. Without it being shared (which no one else wants to do) Germany has a timebomb.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/27/sovereignty-corporations-liam-fox-eu
For sale: The UK

www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
Real wage stagnation

Theresa May is in Italy today.

Labour is ahead of the Tories in London (by 38% to 37%) and in the north (by 40% to 33%) but is behind the Tories in the rest of the south, the Midlands/Wales and even Scotland (by 11% against the Tories’ 23%), the poll suggests. YouGov

Times YouGov best PM ratings amongs those of 65+
May 76%
Corbyn 7%

Only 13% of those who voted leave back Labour, the poll suggests.
Almost a quarter of those who voted Labour in 2015 (23%) would now vote for another party, the poll suggests. Some 7% would vote Lib Dem, 6% Tory, 3% Ukip and the rest someone else.

Michel Barnier appointed EU's lead Brexit negotiator
www.france24.com/en/20160727-eus-juncker-names-frances-michel-barnier-lead-brexit-talks?ref=tw_i

www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jul/27/russia-olympic-doping-scandal-vladimir-putin
I think the Olympics is very telling, in how its being politicised, especially after Sochi.
I think that Sochi, does provide an example of how the West and Russia clashed. Russia set out its stall before Sochi re: gay rights etc, in almost a slap in the face to the spread of such ideas by the West. We are now in an information age where opinions are currency as much as products. Up until now the West has dominated this for hundreds of years, and used the internet to spread that further. But the internet offers a democratisation of those opinions and a two way stream. So when faced with an opposing force, the West is freaking out and has no idea how to respond. It is viewed as a threat. Its yet another consequence of globalisation. And yes there are lots of other countries who are indulging in practices that are not fair.

Ironically I actually think that Putin, is possibly not one of the most extreme voices in Russia either. Putin, is now 63. Like Erdogan, he can't live forever, even if he stays on his best behaviour. Dictators are so inconsiderate about their own mortality. (The fact that the middle eastern Monarchies are, on the whole, currently proving to be the most stable countries because they have a clear line of who takes over shows up the power vacuum problem particularly well. Its not just because they tend to be friendly with the West.) Domestically there are lots of cracks within Russian society and again a lot of polarisation of opinion. Like everywhere else around the world it would seem. It leaves you asking, what happens next?

This was doing the rounds from American friends 48 hours ago. It makes some interesting points about the Trump /Putin connection though I find the bit of the argument that focuses on Russian involvement in a property business less convincing. There are plenty of developers in London that are heavily involved with Russian and especially Chinese investors too, not that any of them are candidates for Prime Minister, even if some may be UKIP supporters. However in terms of evidence of Russian influence on Putin and the campaign talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-russia-connections

Russian influence on Trump

Not sure if this has already been linked (still working my way through all the interesting links) but Liam Fox telly is living in cloud cuckoo land

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/26/british-eu-relations-to-be-resolved-by-2020-says-liam-fox