Westminstenders Continues. Boris is having a bad week. Corbyn resists. Its gonna be a long summer.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD ELEVEN

The dust is beginning to settle and the storm has abated. At least for the moment. The summer is about to start, and so there may be a break in proceeding.

May has had quite a first week both here and abroad.

The ground has not stopped shaking from the political ripples abroad. Made PM on Weds, Nice on Thursday and a failed coup in Turkey on Friday. The political landscape has changed once again.

At home she first cleared out the Govians and called for loyalty. She channelled the ghost of Maggie at the despatch box. She started the process of trying to make friends with Scots, Germans and the French. She is apparently now Merkel's bestie. Sturgeon is already ousted from that position after just days.

Boris, meanwhile has been rinsed by everyone he speaks to because of what he's said in the past. He's also given up his chickfeed job. Oh the hardship.

Now he looking like he's starting to regret deciding to play with the grown up. He's been trying - and it would seem, largely failing - at sucking up to the Americans. There's still no apology, but he has admitted that he has a list that is so long that he's lost track of what he needs to apologise for. I bet he's wishing for his playmates, Dave and George to come back.

Otherwise life carries on as normal, well this alternate new version of normal, with parliament breaking for the summer today. Don't worry the Martian landing is scheduled for a week Tuesday.

UKIP's polling seems to have dropped back post referendum, and things have gone rather quiet. Wolfe, Etheridge, Duffy and Arnott are all standing (Who? When did that happen? Yeah quite. Without Farage they disappeared). They plan to reform and make an assault on seats in the Labour heartlands of the provisional NW, Midlands and NE at the next general election. Hustings in August, new leader announced Sept 15th. Looks of thinly and not so thinly veiled racism to look forward to there then. The Daily Mail best make sure it upgrades its servers in time.

The Labour contest grinds on like a war of attrition. Stalking horse Angela fell at the first fence as Owen Smith (that's the MP not the journalist everyone including the media!) wins the dream unity candidate ticket for an apparent hiding to nothing against the steely stubbornness of Corbyn. Everyone with a pulse is starting to loose the will to live with it all.

The Lib Dems, have a Spokesman for Remain. Old Cleggy's back! Otherwise they seem to have been trying to do a deluded impression of the opposition party. Though with 8 MPs they aren't doing much better or worse than Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet atm.

The Green are having a leadership battle too. It must be very civilised - I've heard not a word about it. Lucas tried to get a vote about PR though the Commons. It failed. Again.

There also is a cross party idea to set up a new iniative of a progressive movement to champion Europe, which seems to be gaining some traction. It may also double as a support group for anyone who thinks the world has gone a bit nuts lately at this rate.

The SNP are pissed off, as they vow differently on everything and once again they feel that Trident has been imposed on them. Sturgeon had a good meeting with May though, and apparently the Union must remain and Scotland holds the key to the future. Though we don't know the key to which door that is - Braveheart or Brave New World.

The Republic of Ireland is making noises about a referendum about Irish Unity, but beyond that nothing about NI has really been on the radar. May is supposed to go visiting soon.

And the Welsh? Baaaaa who cares about the welsh? They made the mistake of voting Leave as well as the English and now have been forgotten, consigned to political irrelevance forever.

Article 50 has been pushed back officially until the New Year, with a first legal hearing on how to activate it due no sooner than the 3rd week in October. Leaving the EU legally will now be no earlier than 2019.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace?pg=1 Previous Thread TEN

Nate Silver's numbers say Trump would win.

Sorry, can't find link.

Also sorry to have read and not posted back.

Nate Silver link: www.salon.com/2016/07/25/shock_poll_nate_silvers_election_forecast_now_has_trump_winning/

Nate Silver usually has Hilary winning by a moderate margin, but this week a few polls showed Trump ahead.

Just went to look at his latest post, and basically he's saying that it's impossible to say right now - candidates always get a boost from their conventions, so he can't tell whether it's a "normal" boost in a normally volatile time, or a more significant phenomenon.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-gets-convention-bounce-drawing-polls-to-dead-heat/

It's seriously worrying though, Clinton should be absolutely trouncing him, the fact that it's that close is just... no words.

(to be more specific: it's probably the convention bump that put Trump technically ahead, but he had already been gaining ground anyway, so...not clear where that leaves us)

It's just so scary to see numbers from a pollster I trust showing a Trump win.

I was scared of Brexit.

But this is just too much.

Also, thanks missmoon. :)

For covering my distractedness.

I'm trying to pay more attention to my children now we're a full month in.

Looks like the retirees of Florida get the casting vote again. I am not at all surprised that they prefer Trump and his golf courses over Clinton and her stern work ethic.

Worth noting that loads of Republicans object to Trump because they view him as a Democrat interloper. The other potential nominees were all far nuttier than him in policy terms they just didn't sell the message so well.

Brexit stuff from Italian bloke who wrote Article 50

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-amato-idUSKCN1012Q8

And another on the same point. Interesting.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-article-idUKKCN0ZE18Y

""Would you advise (the British) to send a letter that triggers automatism and puts all the pressure on them? From the moment you push the button you are in a stupid negotiating scenario," a senior EU official involved in the process said.

"I personally think they will never notify. They have the cleverest civil servants on the planet," the official said."

I've followed all of this chain of threads religiously (thank you to everyone for such useful and interesting comments and links!) but this is the first time I've posted.

I came across Diane Abbott's blog from the Democratic convention (not sure why she is there rather than being part of the extremely reduced Opposition, but never mind...): www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/diane-abbott/dnc-labour-party_b_11191964.html She doesn't seem to see the similarities between the Bernie Sanders die-hards and the Corbyn supporters...

Incidentally, I saw this on Twitter, which I joined in 2009 but have never used - until now, when this thread inspired me to find out more about what is going on in the world. I am now a teeny bit obsessed with Twitter! (But in a good way)

This morning is a strangely eventful one. Lots of little things going on and little twists and turns cropping up, which might not necessarily be hugely on the radar. Especially with more things going on in France again.

UK / USA politics have mirrored each other throughout their history to a greater or lesser extent.

Re: Trump, pollsters are now taking a Trump win seriously for the first time. Apparently the best indicator of who will win, is what the markets do the 3 months before the election. If they go up, then the incumbent wins, if they go down then the challenger wins. Its been right every time since 1984. He has received a post-conference boost in the polls which you should see reverse and be repeated by the Democrats (if it doesn't then they are in big trouble).

So this looks very worrying. There have been numerous predictions of a downturn in the early autumn as it is.
www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/26/european-banks-prepare-for-possible-shockwaves-from-stress-test-results?CMP=twt_gu
European banks are looking shaky

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/a-new-industrial-revolution-is-coming-is-theresa-may-ready-for-t/
William Hague has written and interesting piece about a new industrial revolution for the Telegraph. This actually all fits in with the narrative of the background to the Revolutions of 1848 too.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/natwest-rbs-negative-interest-rate-cut-business-commerical-bank-of-england-mark-carney-a7156006.html
Speaking of banks. Negative interest rates could be on the cards. (I said this pre-referendum and hardly anyone took notice. It was all about interest rates skyrocketing. This is what the BoE were planning for, if you looked hard enough for it). This is not good. I can't find the link again, but one of the BoE panel said that he would have voted to cut rates at the last meeting if he had seen the purchasing power stats that were released on Friday first.

Now this little conversation, is a gem:

David Allen Green @DavidAllenGreen
@sirpauljenkins Forming view that any Brexit will be under separate treaty, not unworkable Article 50 process.

Sir Paul Jenkins ‏@sirpauljenkins
However labelled I think we would be able to reverse out of A50. Of course we have to start A50 first!

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
Quite - the two year hard-stop makes Article 50 practically useless for purpose of Brexit.

Sir Paul Jenkins ‏@sirpauljenkins

And a mixed treaty at that - so M/S ratifications including referendums. Where's Godot when you need him?

SpinningHugo @SpinningHugo
@DavidAllenGreen @sirpauljenkins The CJEU might adopt a 'telological' approach to the interpretation of Art 50 (ie cheat). It isn't the ChD.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
This is what happens when you have diplomats draft a legal document rather than lawyers.

Provisions which don't actually work in practice.

incertusagnosis @incertusagnosis
@DavidAllenGreen surely that was the point of using diplomats rather than lawyers. If it worked sensible people might actually use it

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
Fair point.

Even the people who wrote a50, designed it so it would never be used.
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-article-idUKKCN0ZE18Y
and
www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-amato-idUSKCN1012Q8

There is the fire hatch I guess. If we can get to that without Kippers going nuts.
I'm sure this is probably what will end up happening though. Mainly because there is no real viable alternative which isn't complete suicide.

I believe that the Lisbon Treaty was happened after France had a referendum that the EU didn't like. I suspect there is much more room for movement under a treaty arrangement, but the idea will go down like a lead balloon, I'm sure.

It also means that a referendum would most likely be part of the process.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-regional-development-fund-erdf-suspends-treasury-brexit-eu-referendum-a7154526.html
The UK have effectively been suspended from the European Regional Development Fund. (Noting here we are still paying in I suspect).

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/17/jeremy-corbyn-patriot-war-tony-blair-iraq-labour?CMP=share_btn_tw
Owen Smith takes the same approach as the Sun did to Charles Kennedy over Corbyn and patriotism.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-party-home-no-longer-8378139
Call for Momentum to be disbanded by Corbyn due to how it is attracting certain elements.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/leftie-movements-inflitrated-by-mi5-police-officers-jeremy-corbyn-bernie-sanders-labour-party-a7156241.html
The conspiracy against the left.

Bad news for welfare:
Des Kelly OBE @DesKellyOBE
Disappointing to see the Ministerial role for social care downgraded

www.communitycare.co.uk/2016/07/21/care-minister-role-downgraded-government-reshuffle/?utm_content=buffer35934&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

The return of the Lib Dems:
davidhencke.com/2016/07/24/liberal-democrats-on-the-rise-again-in-the-shires/
Apparently the Lib Dems on the rise in 'the shires' but Labour on the assent in metropolitan areas. I personally disagree with what he says about Labour on one key point because I don't think there have been any by-elections for Labour in provisional areas. I think there will prove to be a difference.

Latest Polling
Conservative 43% (+4)
Labour 27% (-2)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (nc)
Green 4% (nc)
Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)
Other *% (-1)
ICM 22nd - 24th July

Kevin Schofield ‏@PolhomeEditor

People saying Corbyn should resign over ICM poll miss the point. For the hard-left, 27% is a phenomenal result.
Good point. Also worth noting this is May's honeymoon period which is about to end too.

www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/police-to-review-hate-crime-procedures-after-a-spike-in-repo?utm_term=.wvrdq3oYe#.vvqqZ4ANB
Government to review handling of hate crime

www.politico.eu/article/alex-salmond-the-target-is-to-keep-scotland-in-europe-brexit-eu-referendum-theresa-may/
Salmond issues a warning about Scotland to May.

High court dealings over Labour leadership currently being live tweeted by @jessicaelgot
If it succeeds, then Leadership nominations reopen. (Corbyn could end up off the ballot in theory)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/26/high-court-to-hear-legal-case-against-labour-leadership-ballot-decision-jeremy-corbyn

cross posts with lots of you!

Like with Brexit, there's a part of me that's morbidly curious to know what the ensuing car crash would look like

In terms of domestic policy, Trump could only do so much, he would be blocked by Congress from doing anything too crazy (although the "too crazy" bar is fairly high when dealing with a republican congress)

He can try to bypass Congress using Executive Orders (what Obama does), but these have their limits

It's foreign policy that is the really, really scary one, because that's traditionally the domain of the President. He can do an awful lot before having to go to Congress. And Trump strikes me as the kind of guy who thinks he knows best and will not listen to "experts".

One possible silver lining - if the US becomes unreliable/dangerous in terms of foreign policy, then the EU will really have to get its act together and step up to the plate.

She keeps spelling Hillary wrong as well.

In my version of scorched earth I do wonder whether in the long run it might be best for Trump to win. The current growing and incoherent disaffection might mean it's inevitable a Trump-type figure will be elected at some point. The present one could be a mild version of what might come along if the political scene continues as usual and disaffection continues to grow.

Of course, this depends on the outcome. In my Panglossian world, Trump would be a disaster, wouldn't cause much long term and permanent damage, and at the end of his term people would turn away from unicorn-promising populists and towards rationality.

I have similar views about Corbyn (although I'm talking about losing a GE rather than winning one).

nauticant I'm with you on Corbyn and resigned to losing the next GE. But a Trump presidency is one nihilistic step too far for me...

piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/starting-over-tariffs-post-brexit-trade-agreement-partners
The practical realities of new trading partners.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/26/british-eu-relations-to-be-resolved-by-2020-says-liam-fox?CMP=twt_gu
But Liam Fox is still saying things will be resolved by 2020

DuPainDuVinDuFromage, I very, very rarely use twitter. I don't post. (I am amused by people going on about fake accounts this week as a result. Mine is legitimate, I just choose not to partake due to the abuse on there).

Ironically the last time I DID use my account, prior to Brexit was the London riots. With much amusement I have looked back at my handful of tweets, and saw that I had called Johnson an incompetent clown who couldn't handle crisis.

I'd forgotten that. Which really does go to show that people do have short memories when it comes to politics.

But if he doesn't win, what's going to happen? Trump is not going to go away. Maybe "safer" to win now with a slim margin and balls it up. It's like a boil that needs lancing.

Didn't Cameron feel that his eurosceptic wing was a boil which needed lancing? Instead of doing it properly, he spread the poison everywhere.
I can't imagine a world with Trump at the helm of the US. Maybe he will get bored and resign?

I got the impression that if he didn't win he'd throw a strop and storm off. I can't see him making a career out of politics if the vote doesn't go his way in November. Am I being naive?

It's like a boil that needs lancing was in an original version of my post. I think hoping the forces that bring the Trump boil to the surface will fade away is the riskiest approach.

Trump is not going to go away.

No he's not. However he is 70. At the next election he would be 74 and expect to serve until he was 78.

Sanders is 74. It has been a problem for him.

Those 4 years matter.

And of course, there is the realistic possibility Trump could do us all a favour in the meantime and 'go away'. However I rather suspect he more of a 'Keith Richards' type who defies all medical logic.

I sincerely hope he does get bored - strikes me as the type. But a bored President sounds dangerous.

I like to while away the odd five minute now and then wondering about the various ailments that could carry Trump and Murdoch off. Hypertension looks the best bet.

www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/ukip-tea-party?utm_term=.pxqyqb20n#.mfe2lONYe
Kipper cracks?
Suzanne Evans backs Lisa Duffy for UKIP leadership. They apparently have been taken over by 'hard right tea party' type and Arron Banks should fuck off.

I think we noticed this 2 months ago, Suzanne...

the problem is that the boil-lancing strategy assumes that people will realize their mistake once Trump is President

but Trump is likely not going to be able to enact most of his so-called plans, in part because they're crazy, but mostly because the "establishment" will reign him in

so the frustration will not go away, it may even get worse - and someone with even more authoritarian tendencies may be running next anyway