Teresa May - can we trust her to Brexit?

[PoliticalSpin]

Just that really. She seems the most sensible choice but will she have the Leavers trust?

She will be under more pressure than any of the other candidates to leave. She has to make the best of a bad situation. And be seen to be making progress. Otherwise the pressure from the right of the party will land on her. (as well as the pressure from the Kippers).

She also has more appeal to moderate Conservatives in an election.

Well it's going to be a great future with a diminished academic and scientific research base, but I guess that's A-OK with Leavers because it's all those much-hated "experts" and "elites" . I have heard about (and discussed) this on the academic grapevine since the vote, and now several VCs have spoken to Newsnight:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36719923

"UK-based academics are being asked to withdraw their applications for future funding by European partners."

He told Newsnight: "Since the referendum result, of the 12 projects that we have people working on for submission for an end-of-August deadline, on four of those projects researchers in other European countries have said that they no longer feel that the UK should be a partner because they don't have confidence in what the future is going to hold."

"They also report that staff members and prospective staff members have notified them of their decisions to seek work elsewhere in the EU."

In reality the so called "markets" are a gamling den. Oh, they wear suits and red braces and work in the most expensive offices in town, but underneath all the gloss, they do no more than betting on which way other people will react to something.

Now the pound is falling, there are probably a lot of people shorting the pound in the hope it will fall further so as to make a profit. If they get it right they skim off a huge fortune, meanwhile they are messing with peoples lives.

Professor

True to an extent. Of course the worst culprits are the US investment banks and hedge funds who made fortunes out of the US subprime and EU debt crises (sp ?).

The same ones that were advising the Bremain campaign.

Chap,
You say to an extent. Which bits are outside the "extent"? Are there some genuinely good aspects to the gembling dens, sorry... "markets"?

The ability to hedge against currency movements/fuel price changes/crop price changes is genuinely valuable for people for whom the viability of their business would be threatened by a large unexpected move. I'd say that half of Mumsnet are probably taking advantage of hedging via a fixed price mortgage or fuel deal. However, unlike a normal insurance policy you don't have to be able to demonstrate a concrete interest in the commodity in question in order to trade in futures, so an enormous hugely complex parasitic industry has grown on the back of the original useful, industry.

Genuine question: what happens if we lose some of the City? Reduced tax take and some loss of filtering down of money within the economy. But to a huge extent the wealth created is contained within a very small section of society. So, if we as a country were poorer in terms of gdp would it necessarily be felt by everyone?

YesThis

Cheers. Saved me the time of writing something similar.

The amount of 'speculators' in the market has decreased massively since the EU debt crisis. Trading volumes in some of the biggest futures contracts are around 50% (if that) of pre-crisis levels.

Most 'regular' banks are no longer involved in proprietary (speculative) trading. The big hitters are still US inv banks & HFs.

I think we'd feel the loss of taxes from city workers, unless the government were prepared to run a huge Keynesian budget deficit while they restructured the economy to, ummmm..... The very richest may well have some sort of iffy offshore tax deal, but all the bag carriers and lower management on a mere hundred grand plus are mostly PAYE. You can pay for a junior nurse with the PAYE on that.

George's plan B involves cutting corporation tax sharply to attract new businesses and retain old ones thinking of moving by sheer force of cheapness. As a plan that is not completely crazy, but unless you attract an awful lot of new companies it will give you a lower tax take again.

Yes I think so

Flushing - yes apparently the richest 3% pay nearly 50% of our taxes. Since many of these are bankers, they'll move elsewhere. So the government is likely to put up income tax for ever worker.

As for May - Shes awful IMO. I don't think it's at all fair that we'll have to put up with a right wing Tory government when they only won a small majority in the first place with David Cameron.

Teresa May was very quiet during the referendum campaign and DH and I discussed that she had her eye on the leadership after Cameron. I'm not very convinced she was ever particularly very pro remain.

As for May - Shes awful IMO. I don't think it's at all fair that we'll have to put up with a right wing Tory government when they only won a small majority in the first place with David Cameron.

^ this

I am hoping for a General Election.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/03/britain-general-election-before-article-50#

It's not just the bankers. With the banks come the lawyers, the recruitment consultants, the IT specialists, the trainers (and some other specialist financial industries not directly reliant on the bankers). All of them on good money and paying their PAYE. Now you can argue that they're parasites and the world would be better off without them, but from a purely selfish UK POV they are parasites on the world economy, not ours, and the U.K. takes their cut of the winnings.

""markets" are a gamling den... they do no more than betting on which way other people will react to something."

There is nothing morally wrong with buying something with the expectation that its price will rise in the future and you will make a profit from it. That is why many people invest in property, too. Is that "gambling", too?

"Now the pound is falling, there are probably a lot of people shorting the pound... If they get it right they skim off a huge fortune, meanwhile they are messing with peoples lives."

For each seller, there is an equal and opposite buyer. That is how you can have a transaction. Is the buyer messing with people's lives, too?

What you are missing in all this is that the real reason why the Pound is falling is that UK's future is uncertain, with a looming recession and the loss of its enviable place as the most important financial center in the world. GBP isn't being speculatively run down. It's losing value because its fundamentals have changed for the worse.

On Apple news there is an article that has appeared on Chron (USA origin). I don't fully understand it but the gist is that a global recession looks likely. Can someone knowledgeable comment please? (And as an aside, does anyone feel, like me, that mumsnet is getting back to being a good discussion forum?)

Yes she can be trusted to Brexit. I think she can also be relied upon not to be a complete idiot at the negotiation stage, which is more than I can say for Gove or Leadsom.

I'm hardly thrilled that we're exiting the EU but the thought of Gove or Leadsom heading the negotiations is nightmare inducing.