Where is Farage?

[Chunterbust]

Does anyone know if he's even made it back after THAT eu speech?

'Well Aaron Banks is starting a new party and he doesn't seem to be keen on having Farage in it'

I haven't kept up with that, but then Banks will fail and is not serious in my opinion. Does that mean he will not fund UKIP, so that UKIP will decline now that the other ex-Tory donors don't need to fund it either as we are leaving the EU? Sounds like the Establishment hope UKIP will go away without backing.

'I can't find much self aggrandisement in Carswell's actions, nor do I think he want's Farage's crown.'

I think his role was probably spoiler, invited on by the BBC to snipe at Farage and create an image of UKIP as a shambles. Carswell will probably return to the Tories one day.

'He, Reckless and Hannan are all good friends whose primary goal was always to extricate ourselves from the EU. Ukip itself was a slightly odd smelling vehicle for that aim. Reckless joined and Hannan campaigned for Ukip at the last European election despite being a tory candidate.'

Yes, they all wanted to leave the EU. Reckless seems alright but O don't see much of him so don't really know. But the others don't have the common touch which is UKIP's appeal and why it can decomate Labour in teh North and the Tories in the South, Kent and Essex with good leadership. Now that we are leaving the EU and that UKIP is not a real fit for politically correct Tories, they may not need to stay in UKIP much longer.

't needs to refocus on domestic issues and appeal to the sort of people who respect Douglas Carswell's humane libertarianism. '

That is not what the people of Clacton voted for or the majority of ordinary voters want. Carswell is a wet Tory, without Thatcher's courage, conviction and ability to withstand attacks from her opponents. Carswell is a cerebral thinker on issues that have no connection to ordinary people such as espotify etc. He is on a different planet to most ordinary people, unlike Farage.

Carswell will make UKIP a total irrelevance and voters will return to the Tories and Labour very quickly. I much prefer Leadsom to Carswell.

'Frankly a wannabe world statesman who has never won an election is about as useful to Ukip now as Tony Blair is to the labour party.'

It all depends if Farage is serious. I can't tell, maybe he is just playing a game. But if Farage was serious, he has the oratory, the debating skills as shown against Clegg, and the courage to take lumps out of the Tories if he wanted to. But he would first need to get rid of the people sabotaging UKIP and end the farce that surrounds it.

'claig do you feel now that UKIP have done the punk thing by becoming part of the Commons and therefore the establishment themselves?'

No, UKIP are a threat to the Tories and Labour which is why the Establishment doesn't like them and is why there are so many ex-Tories in UKIP ruining it. But Farage is weak because if he had half the courage that Trump has, then he could have been far more successful.

Trump never apologises. Trump says some ridiculous and outrageous things and yet he never apologises. He doubles up and becomes more ridiculous nd outrageous. That is the key to Trump's success. He refuses to back down to the media, the political class and the Establishment, whatever he has said. People like that courage because of the anti-establishment mood across the world. Trump doesn't mean half the stuff he says and he will change it all in the end, but in the meantime, he refuses to play according to the Establishment's rules and that is why he has won.

He hasn't really started on Hillary yet, but when he does, he will break all of the rules, it will be nothing like Carswell, he won't mention espotify, and that is why Trump will win. I am not sure Farage really wants to win.

The Establishment want a Carswell UKIP because they know that the people won't like it because it will be politically correct and say what the BBC and the Establishment like. That will make UKIP totally irrelevant, not an opposition. If it did what Trump does, then it would win lots of seats, just as it won the European elections when the Establishment called it "racist" and had rent-a-mobs protesting it.

He's serious about ranting against the EU. I can assure you he isn't serious about working out the minutiae of policy.

If he is serious then what is he serious about? He has the ear of an important demographic in the electorate, indeed he may be the only voice they have.

What will his next campaign be, what issues will he tackle? At the height of his fame and influence he had an excellent opportunity to spell this out. Instead he insulted his hosts in a vainglorious diatribe.

Where will Ukip's funding now come from? All of their financial backers were actually backing brexit rather than Ukip.

If he were serious about Ukip having a future then why has he systematically rid his party of anyone with a talent for leadership for more than a decade? His methods can be ruthless and vile.

I suspect you would find he hasn't even thought about such things, hence it is difficult to take him seriously.

'He's serious about ranting against the EU. I can assure you he isn't serious about working out the minutiae of policy.'

Yes, but that is OK. Nor is Trump. Farage is a salesman, an orator, policy can be done by wonks. Trump will set directions but detail bores him, the wonks can do that.

'If he is serious then what is he serious about?'

He should be fighting for ordinary people, challenging political correctness, promoting business and jobs, challenging green energy taxes, promoting PR voting, lower taxation, more referenda and direct democracy, more NHS funding, etc some of which he does do.

' Instead he insulted his hosts in a vainglorious diatribe.'

That doesn't matter because most of the 17.5 million who voted to Leave would have liked to have said the same thing. Insulting the political class wins votes because the people are not keen on a lot of them, just as Trump insults the Republican Establishment.

'Where will Ukip's funding now come from? All of their financial backers were actually backing brexit rather than Ukip.'

That's right, UKIP will possibly collapse if Banks pulls out, which makes you wonder how committed Banks really was. The Establishment would like nothing better than for UKIP to collapse because UKIP is the only populist party we have and populism is now wreaking havoc on establishments across the EU and the world.

'If he were serious about Ukip having a future then why has he systematically rid his party of anyone with a talent for leadership for more than a decade? His methods can be ruthless and vile.'

That is a good question. There are whole websites devoted to that question by former UKIP people who know him well. Is Farage for real or does he mess up and allow farces to proliferate? I don't know.

'hence it is difficult to take him seriously.'

Yes, I fear you are probably right, which means that UKIP will end and the ex Tories will return to the Tories and the Establishment will breathe a sigh of relief as the old two party shuffle will continue once they have got rid of Corbyn from Labour.

claig darling, you've changed :( Farage was your warrior in shining armour. Are you still for Jez?

No, I always had my doubts about Farage and his strategy. Undobtedly Farage has the talent to d really well, but he always seems to shoot himself in the foot by allowing farces to erupt and dissesnion to occur without sacking the dissenters. You have to wonder if it is deliberate. But he has done good things, he got us the Referendum and we are leaving the EU.

'Are you still for Jez?'

Yes, I want him to beat all if the Labour 170 who are trying to topple hom so that he can give an alternative politics with new ideas. But he has been a total disappointment and far too weak in not sacking Hillary Benn ages ago etc. I don't agree with lots of his policies but I think he is good for politics because he is different.

What we need is PR voting and lots of different parties with different ideas.

I fear I have tainted your hero in your eyes Claig.

Sorry.

There is an important point here though. Farage's personality cult was purely based around him being the man to take us out of the EU. I suspect many people in Ukip put up with his shenanigans and for this reason alone, which itself rather tainted the party.

He was however the man who took us out, no-one can take that away from him.

I'm just looking to the future and what the political landscape means for Ukip and their 4 million votes. I'm sure without Cameron's referendum promise it would have been far higher.

What happens to their elected councilors and AM's without the EU to bother them? Most have been shunned and insulted too much to merely seek another party.

If Farage is now turning his fire on Carswell then it might be safe to assume that he has fired the first shots in a battle for the future direction of the party, though he hasn't given any indication of what that might be.

Any Ukip members know? Has it even been discussed? The literature was very libertarian, the actuality....

Farage would make and break policy in a heartbeat almost ridiculing whatever effort had gone into formulating it.

Importantly Ukip has learned to campaign and has thousands of active volunteers who are not going to return to their allotments should someone lead them.

They could indeed sweep the North if they continue to pick the right fights, I don't however think Farage is the man to do that.

'I fear I have tainted your hero in your eyes Claig.'

No, I have always had my doubts about Farage. He has great qualities, but he doesn't use them to great effect. But he got and helped win the Referendum. Just read about Arron Banks, he says "Farage may have had enough and want to go out on top". I have always thought he would because he prefers fishing to detailed policy on housing for example.

But without Farage, unless Nuttall takes over, UKIP is finished because its voters will not like Carswell and will return to the Tories and Labour, even under Corbyn, if Carswell is in charge.

'The literature was very libertarian, the actuality....'

Remember, Farage called a recent 2010 manifesto "drivel". At that time, it wasn't serious, and the person who wrote the last manifesto is Suzanne Evans whom Farage has had a falling out with, so it is probably not serious now either. He was serious about leaving the EU, but that may be all.

' I don't however think Farage is the man to do that'

I think he is the only person with the courage and charisma to challenge the other parties, apart from Nuttall who is good.

The problem is that no one wants another party just like the rest - a Hillary Benn or Carswell party. The market is always crowded with those. UKIP is a populist niche. If it loses that, then there is no point to it.

Well Arron Banks understands that Trump is the way to go and that "facts" don't work, emotion does. The problem is to win you need someone with the humour, courage and confidence of Trump. Farage is pretty good but I think he has had enough of politics so he will retire.
"Banks has been credited with professionalising Ukip’s referendum push through the Leave.EU campaign. He deployed senior executives and staff from his insurance companies and hired the Washington DC political campaign strategy firm Goddard Gunster on a multimillion-pound fee to sharpen its message.

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“It was taking an American-style media approach,” said Banks. “What they said early on was ‘facts don’t work’ and that’s it. The remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn’t work. You have got to connect with people emotionally. It’s the Trump success.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/leave-donor-plans-new-party-to-replace-ukip-without-farage

Hmm... My bet is now on Clinton to win. I think we served as a wake up call for the U.S. Trump is pissing off more and more people, and the US demographic is very different to the UK. My friends in California are predictably anti-Trump, but my relatives in prime redneck territory have suddenly turned against him, too (they aren't classical Democrats; could imagine them voting Republican, if it wan't Trump).

I'm hearing the opposite from the states, though haven't seen any polls as yet.

Trumps anti-establishment message and his support for brexit seem to have raised quite a rebellious spirit.

If the Brits can shake the world with an anti-establishment vote then so can they by voting for Trump.

Also lots of humorous stuff about how Barry lost the referendum by interfering. :)

If it was true that Boris was a leaver - was he? - and now that he has been shunned by the tories - has he? - there might be the most wonderful opportunity for him to form a new populist party that could pick up those 17.5m votes. He has cross party appeal. The tories would leak votes to him, ditto labour. He could campaign against Heathrow and for a new Estuary airport (which we need if we are coming out of EU). But did he jump or was he pushed? Can he lead? Not sure.