Actual economic effects...

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Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

"Brexit plunges UK economy to worst level since 2009, data suggests"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

Can somebody knowledgeable comment?

In good news (not for us) the rest of the EU seems to be holding up pretty well.

Maybe I should put that on one of the lists of brilliant things about Brexit.

Don't know if I qualify as knowledgeable - opening myself for a few cheap shots there , but...

It's bad, almost without exception. Actual output is down across Manufacturing and Services. Input prices have climbed steeply - likely due to the pound's devaluation.

Employment in the services sector contracted for the first time in 3 and a half years.
The one positive note is that Exports were given a boost. Unfortunately not enough to prevent a contraction in manufacturing output, though certainly mitigating some of the downturn.

The Chancellor has downplayed it - that's his job - as the survey being a measure of business sentiment. It isn't. The underlying reasons may well be, but the data contains plenty that is about actual activity.

Many economists are now confidently predicting a recession as there is a very strong correlation between these surveys and GDP. This chart is top of page 1 of the Survey, and is pretty unambiguous.

It is also the first solid post-vote data upon which the BoE can base it's policy decisions. A rate cut or further QE now seems more likely as they have actual data to point to, as opposed to being seen to react to anecdotal sentiment.

The unanswered question is whether this is a short sharp shock and things will bounce back quickly. That is of course a possibility. This downturn is - currently - all about confidence, as opposed to the economy running out of steam, or a housing market crash, or structural problems in the financial system.

As such, it could come back as quickly as it went. If it becomes entrenched - and I don't think the lack of clear direction politically is helping - then it will get worse before it gets better.

I think there will be a recession, no doubt. I don't really understand why its even news. But recessions happen and we'd have had an another one if we'd voted to stay in at some point.

There has been an economic shock so there are going to be repercussions.

But recessions happen and we'd have had an another one if we'd voted to stay in at some point.

We're all going to die sometime but I'm not about to start playing chicken on the motorway.

Very happy to see "there was going to be a recession anyway" post - was missing that stamp on my brexiteer bingo card.

was missing that stamp on my brexiteer bingo card.

Love it!! You should start a separate thread with that.

Its an awesome expression.

The "there was going to be a recession anyway" point is rubbish anyway, the Eurozone in recovery, British economy still slowly growing, big public spending projects about to start (HS2, CR2 etc), not likely.

All up in the air now though.

There is generally one about every 10 years, we're a couple of years ahead. This was one of the major negatives of Brexit. Anyone who thinks there won't be a recession linked to this is in cloud cuckoo land. Probably it will be a worse recession than it would have been otherwise and sooner.

Brexit may work in the long term and there arguments for it but who knows? But the short term pain will be there.

Well, I certainly cannot think of anything foolish about voting for assured 'short-term pain' and unknown long-term future.

Sings Do-doooooo... Right. Good.

Yeah quite greenwood that's why I voted remain.....

I voted Remain too. Those who say, well, there will be a recession but suck it up, we will recover, or words to that effect, should try learning a few lessons from history. The population of Ireland before the Famine of the mid 19th Century was just over 8 million and may have been as much as 8.5 million. It has still not recovered to that level - currently the Republic and N Ireland have a joint population of 6.5 million. Contrast that with the population of England, which was something like 14 million in the 1850s and is now just over 60 million, in part due to successive waves of immigration.

I am not saying that things will get anything like as bad as that, just that the effects can be extremely long lasting, and blight whole generations.

But recessions happen and we'd have had an another one if we'd voted to stay in at some point.

This must be one of the most hilarious comments I've read about Brexit. And man, has there been some competition. Recalling that post, as I see more of the consequences playing out, is going to tickle me for years. Terrific work.

And why is that? It is the truth. But hey ho let the mindless blame brexit for all ill from now on

Why would anyone vote Brexit if they thought there would be even the smallest chance of a recession?

Recessions lead to businesses collapsing, redundancy and repossessions. Lives and communities are destroyed.

Maybe ghost because they believe that Brexit would be better in the long term?

Erasmus scheme may exclude British students after Brexit

www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/23/erasmus-scheme-exclude-british-students-brexit

Maybe ghost because they believe that Brexit would be better in the long term?

When your credit rating and livelihood has been destroyed by a recession the long term won't look good.

????? I voted remain as I stated about 5 posts back. But surely you must be able to see that people have logical reasons for wanting Brexit or are you really that blinkered?

No, I can't see any logical reasons for wanting to vote to leave the biggest economic trading block in the world and having no forward plan.

Voting for empty slogans and desires that are going to almost impossible for any UK government to deliver.

O....K.....

1. Sovereignty. It matters to some people.
2. The freedom to make trade deals with the rest of the world. This potentially can bring economic benefits in the long term
3. Concerns about the viability of the EU. The Greeks defaulting again, the serious economic issues in relation to unemployment in much if Europe.

All perfectly logical. I may be largely risk averse and prefer to stay with the equilibrium but I can understand that others don't agree with me.

1. UK will still have an unelected Head of State, House of Lords, millionaire MP's. There will be such a compromise on Brexit that UK will end up tied to EU anyway but with none of the perks.

1. With which countries? Trade deals take years to negotiate.

3.Globalised economy mean the UK is affected by other nations performances regardless of EU membership or not. Osborne gave millions to the Irish government when their economy bombed. It was in the UK's interest (big trading partner with Ireland).

1. You mean the sovereignty that we will give away in any kind of EEA/EFTA or TTIP deal? Implementing laws we have no say in making.

1. The freedom to spend 10 years in economic uncertainty frantically making trade deals?

1. Contrary to Leavers' obsession I see no signs of the EU falling apart. Even if, worst case scenario Greece, crashes out of the Euro, the EU will continue to function.

Far from being logical these reasons aren't even based in reality.

Xpost.

1. Yes but governed within the UK which matters to some people
2. Timescales are not helped by 28 countries to agree. It is ridiculous to accept EU timescales as all that is possible. Although yes agreements are a challenge.
3. Of course issues with the EU affect the world economy but if you arent part of it then the effect will be less direct.

My personal opinion is that the Eurozone will head towards closer integration in the next few years. Therefore our 'influence' and 'place' in Europe would change anyway in the next 15/15 years. Therefore this whole thing is entirely pointless as we'll end up with soft Brexit anyway. But time will tell on that.