Actual economic effects...

[Spinflight]

FTSE closed on Wednesday at 6138. Closed on Friday at 6138.

Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

Nah guys, it's all "hysteria" to be at all concerned about economic and social effects. Conversely, believing that a minority (as we keep being reminded) of the population can actually bring about bad happenings purely by the power of their negative brain waves, is completely sensible .

Small,

I make a big distinction between forecasts and data. I particularly like the BOE business agents' reports, as they survey real businesses on the ground.

Yes and a third of the businesses said they were planning to cut investment and employment.

You also realise that the data for that meeting would have been compiled prior to the 26th? The MPC meeting was on the 14th so there isn't enough time for them to have surveyed a wide range of sources and collated the data.

You don't put store in the forecasts cause they say things you don't like is all. You don't like experts till they agree with you. Worst confirmation bias going.

As opposed to your obvious objectivity...

First chocolate. Now strawberries :(

Don't worry, I'm sure Larry will be happy to take up the slack and pick them all for us...

Tragedy that we won't be able to exploit Eastern Europeans working on their hands and knees for as little as £45 per week (Independent article 2009).

Tragedy that we won't be able to exploit Eastern Europeans working on their hands and knees for as little as £45 per week

Yes, it's amazing how many supposed leftwingers are now on the side of the gangmasters.

Or should I say, openly on their side.

No left winger was ever on the side of the gangmasters, conflation abounds there, we agree with fair pay or didn't you notice our history? Lets play some more, the national government of 6 years has done nothing to stop people being badly paid, the labour government did.

The Labour government blocked the Temporary Agency Workers Directive for as long as it possibly could.

It was utterly shameful.

Yeah and the Tories avoided signing up to the human rights act for nearly two parliaments, not sure that you are right on your assertion either. It was a Labour Gov that brought it in, Tories wouldn't have. Like the minimum wage etc, lets not play progressives here, I'll beat you with a labour one every time.

I'm a Labour supporter.

I loathe the Tories.

But I am right about the Labour government blocking and delaying the TAW directive for years, to the uttee disgust of the ILO.

Lots of actual poorcand vulnerable workers caused concrete pain.

And they only implemented it in the end because they had to.

The point larry made stands, though. A lot of the belly aching about Brexit has come from employers who exploit cheap EU labour.

If Brexit makes that harder, then that is a good thing.

Especially in a country where minimum wage legislation is so patchily enforced.

A lot of the belly aching about Brexit has come from employers who exploit cheap EU labour. Weren't some of those the ones telling us to vote Leave?

Not that I heard.

Both immediately before and after Brexit Day the BBC kept rolling out "employers" who were clearly exploiting poor Eastern European immigrants and were worried they'd have to look a bit harder for illegal immigrants to low ball.

I remember thinking that if I had been remotely open to voting Leave, I would have found those interviews persuasive in that direction.

Sheffield deal with China:
guardian link

Sheffield deal with China - reading the article, seems to be a George Osborne's (remember him, he was Chancellor once) 'Northern Powerhouse', and was 18 months in the making. GO must be annoyed that the deal wasn't reported a month ago and he could have claimed the credit.

Some more real effects taking shape:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/europeans-demand-10-price-rise-on-white-goods-zhlz5zs3x

" A lot of the belly aching about Brexit has come from employers who exploit cheap EU labour."

Yeah like the banks, pharma industry, Universities, Car industry, Aerospace industry. They all exploit cheap labour?

More confirmation bias bollocks.

All the crap about being on the side of the gangmasters is just that crap, none of us on the left support that, but unfortunately in order to try to appease eurosceptics there has been reluctance to implement EU regulation, or similar laws to other EU countries in order to deal with poor employment conditions.

Yet you then use it as an ad hom, mainly cause your arguements don't hold any intellectual credibility.

Oh and the Sheffield deal was a long time coming, the money was committed a while ago. The PP saying GO will be pissed off is right.

Lets see whats happening with investment by this time next year eh?

Think is, it hasn't actually happened yet. There will be a huge difference in the economic effects of an arrangement where we remain in the EEA, and an outcome where we lose that.

More confirmation bias bollocks.

I'm a Remainer.

I'm not looking to have that confirmed, thanks all the same.

I am just capable of seeing that reality doesn't always line up exactly with what I want to be true.

There are plenty on the left that support immigration policies that are bad for unskilled workers in the UK.

unfortunately in order to try to appease eurosceptics there has been reluctance to implement EU regulation, or similar laws to other EU countries in order to deal with poor employment conditions.

And you accuse ME of confimation bias?

Yesterday you said this didn't happen.

Now you are saying it hapoened but it was all because of eurosceptics?

It is the case that there are employers in the UK who benefitted from the ability to employ and exploit cheap labour from easter Europe.

Brexit is likely to make that harder.

How that will play out for workers is very far from clear, particularly with a Tory government in charge and no opposition.

But we can't have a conversation that is about Actual Economic Effects if nobody can recognise what is happening because they are so determined to see only what they predicted on June 23rd.

The Daily Mail's print advertising revenue has declined significantly less slowly since Brexit!

Let the good times roll.

"Yesterday you said this didn't happen."

Umm when did I say that? A lot of EU regulations are stalled, or "opted out" of by the UK. It is also true that there are a lot of things that have been done by UK governments to appease eurosceptics.

Again I'll ask, the bellyaching about brexit that has been done by the industries listed, is that because of access to cheap labour?

Also,

It is the case that there are employers in the UK who benefitted from the ability to employ and exploit cheap labour from easter Europe.

Brexit is likely to make that harder.

I don't think that's necessarily true as it will depend entirely upon future government policy. I've seen proposals, from some quarters, of "tied" work visas, which make the right to remain conditional upon working for the sponsoring employer. This could increase the risk of exploitation.

The legal mechanisms for discouraging exploitation already exist, in the form of employment and health& safety law, and the minimum wage. The fact that it is difficult for employees to rely on the former, and that HMRC do little to enforce the latter, has precisely zero to do with EU membership.

The fact that it is difficult for employees to rely on the former, and that HMRC do little to enforce the latter, has precisely zero to do with EU membership.

Well not zero.

I think EU membership and ultimate recourse to the ECJ make an employee's position stronger within the EU than outside it, given our government's blind eye turning.

I have very low hopes of this Brexit being a good thing for workers.

The existence of a lot of really pissed off people who might vote UKIP (or worse) could make make it harder to continue to import cheap labour to undercut British workers.

But with no opposition, I'm not hopeful.