Actual economic effects...

[Spinflight]

FTSE closed on Wednesday at 6138. Closed on Friday at 6138.

Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

How you think a trading room will take years to build but a UK's trade agreements with myriad countries will be quickly re-established is frankly beside me.

But the EU doesn't have free trade agreements with myriad countries so we don't need to.

It will be a brinkmanship game now. May will insist on prenegotiations (maybe years worth) before triggering article 50. she is in a strong position as a remainer, as she will do it more in sorrow than in anger.

The leavers have got what they want so talk of them becoming impatient is wide of the mark. As long as we are leaving a 5-10 year time horizon is fine (they've waited 40 already!)

The Europeans are fractured anyway so making the negotiations harder than they need be risks further exit votes near term. Delaying is in fact win/win as no other countries will want to leave until they see what it looks like.

And finally, never forget the personal stakes of many wealthy and powerful Europeans in London property. They have no interest in it crashing.

Brexit towns see their factories shut

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-will-plunge-the-uk-into-a-recession-in-the-next-year-blackrock-says-a7134616.html

Stop Talking Britain Down!

How about looking at their previous forecasts and seeing if they were any good?

Que? That was the point of my link, that (whether or not they're any good at forecasting) they're actually talking Britain down.

Even the Canadian are blaming us

www.ctvnews.ca/business/central-bank-says-brexit-will-impact-canada-s-gdp-1.2984735

Next we will be blame for intergalactic recession.

So the leavers are allowed to come up with totally spurious claims, which of course was not the reason they voted but a fairly balanced article by a broadsheet is talking Britain down.

Do you know what I don't think company executives are making investment decisions based on news headlines!

Admit it is happening, will happen.... That is fine if that isn't an issue for you but don't pretend that if us remainders shut up and hold hands with you walking up the yellow brick road that all those nasty companies will listen to us.

a fairly balanced article by a broadsheet is talking Britain down

I think you missed the BlackRock says from the headline. They're reporting one company's opinion. The Independent are making no such predictions.

Haha. Nobody's allowed to make any forecasts except positive ones. Come on, where's your Blitz spirit?

ps. I have read that world markets will be affected so Canada may have a point.

Enjoy the brain drain..

UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/uk-scientists-dropped-from-eu-projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears

Some quality (no, not really) below-the-line comments in that article, Frank. I think we can safely say that there's no need to worry about a brain drain, when there are so many of Britain's finest minds coming forward .

Hammond says we're out of the single market and will negotiate access.

Oh dear.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wales-vote-leave-eu-referendum-result-brussels-funding-economy-a7136196.html

Who could have possibly guessed the Brexit "plan" would screw Wales too

Homeowners in northern England 'most vulnerable to negative equity'

www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/14/northern-england-house-prices-negative-equity-moodys-bank-of-england

Bank of England MPC minutes are out. They expect inflation to rise over short term through exchange rate movements and will look at inflation in more detail next month. Little bit of official anecdote:

"Official data on economic activity covering the period since the referendum are not yet available. However, there are preliminary signs that the result has affected sentiment among households and companies, with sharp falls in some measures of business and consumer confidence. Early indications from surveys and from contacts of the Bank’s Agents suggest that some businesses are beginning to delay investment projects and postpone recruitment decisions. Regarding the housing market, survey data point to a significant weakening in expected activity. Taken together, these indicators suggest economic activity is likely to weaken in the near term."

www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2016/jul.pdf

tbf to Wales, they might have seen this and maybe thought this meant they could keep all the funding?

www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/leave_ministers_commit_to_maintain_eu_funding

I think maybe the bit "Thirteen Government ministers and senior Conservatives have today committed that every region, group and recipient of EU funding will continue to get that money after a ‘Leave’ vote in the EU referendum." might - if you didn't read it properly - give you the impression that Wales would get to keep all the funding. Because obviously it says something else. Something less...facty.

(This makes me very very cross). Anyway, back to the economy!

Agree, Night. It was criminally irresponsible of the Leave campaign to put that letter promising to match funding out. People did believe it, and people believed millions to the NHS too.

People did believe it, and people believed millions to the NHS too.

But that can't be! Leave voters here have repeatedly assured me that nobody voted based on either of those points, nor on immigration .

There is a whole industry of rich / taking money out of pensions to buy properties in depressed areas then converting into HMO's. As property prices crash in the NE etc... this will intensify as they will see this as an opportunity.

I am a property solicitor and I wandered into a network meeting, I found it totally depressing. People need houses to buy, rent - they should not be used as an asset class.

Build more affordable houses, rent controls.. Otherwise it is going to get worse.

I really wonder how irreversably this has screwed up people's idea of how democracy works.

Namehanger that's a really fair point. Particularly with v low interest rates, (potentially negative bond yields) plus higher inflation: annuity rates will be REALLY low, so people with pension pots will be hunting for "real" return. Property is an obvious candidate then.

Pound up against the dollar (.7) and the Euro (.6) after interest rates held at .5 yesterday.

Back above $1.34 for the first time in a fortnight.

Markets down across Europe after Nice attacks.

But still far lower than it has been this year, in fact lower than it has been for a long, long time.

I don't have the data to hand but I think that Euro/gbp is about at its long term average of around 0.8.

Euro/USD and hence GBP/USD is on a long term downtrend as the Eurozone economy has a potential growth rate far below the U.S economy (one good reason to be thinking about leaving).