Actual economic effects...

[Spinflight]

FTSE closed on Wednesday at 6138. Closed on Friday at 6138.

Long term borrowing rates have come down as brexit appeared more likely, 10yr ones from 2% down to 1.09% post brexit. Similarly all the European long term borrowing rates rose sharply. Lesson? We are a less risky and more credit worthy outside the EU than in.

One ratings agency did drop our credit worthiness, though oddly the last time they did was out of fear of Eurozone contagion. Seems completely at odds with the long term borrowing rates, which matter quite a great deal given our debts.

The pound dropped, quite significantly. It appears however that there was some 'unusual' activity in the market which forced it down whenever the Leave campaign polled well. To the extent of trying to sell it when there were no buyers.

Some people lost a great deal of money, probably dwarfing the millions contributed to the remain campaign, lets hope it was Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. :)

Anyway, this is hardly just about the UK economy with concern Deutsche & the Italian banks... plus low levels of global trade and investment which haven't recovered to pre-crisis levels. Even the Chinese commerce minister is depressed, this is not just post-Brexit blues.

I think Brexit will cause doom and gloom to a lot more than the UK markets and economy.

I'd be livid if I was the head of an EU country for the UK leaving and the stalling on article 50, just get on with it, their economies suffer from the uncertainty too!

Exactly.

I meant this not just UK-based post-Brexit blues.

larry - Your estimations are wide off the mark. It doesn't take years to set up a trading room. As I said before, it didn't even take years to set up a stock exchange from scratch in some backward corner of Asia.

How you think a trading room will take years to build but a UK's trade agreements with myriad countries will be quickly re-established is frankly beside me.

It's wide of the mark, not off the mark. I think the etymology is from cricket, definitely not pétanque.

I'm not French and I've never played pétanque but you are right, English is not my native language. Congratulations for having found a spelling mistake in one of my posts. Here, have a . Search through my past posts and you will no doubt find a few more to laugh at.

In the Times today it says that Lush are relocating from their Dorset factory to Düsseldorf and also that two brick companies are mothballing plants in Lancashire .The MD of Lush is quoted as saying that they employ people from 38 countries and no longer feel welcome in Dorset as 53% voted Leave , seems a bit convenient to me but I expect we will hear a lot more of this type of thing .

Cote,

All you do is personally attack. You always disparage but never actually engage. So why do you expect me to engage with you?

For example, I asked you to explain how you could build a modern dealing room quickly, explaining the engineering problems. You merely responded by more sarcasm.

Also, of course anyone can state an opinion on any thread, but what is your 'skin in the game'? As you stated you 'live where the fuck you like'. Totally agree. But you live in the south of France, English is not your first language. Why such passion about the uk's position in Europe.

If you live in the Côte d'Azur, though, you really should play pétanque. A great game on a sunny evening.

Anecdotal stuf... locally estate agents say there is a bit of a freeze - no one putting property on the market any more, sales on hold or buyers pulling out because of Brexit.

Lawyers have had deals pulled.

Contracts with Brexit clauses in have been exercised.

Shares are up as we know at present - I am up about £40k which I doubt will warm the cockles of mumsnetters hearts.... particularly as I'm a remainer. Our holiday this week will cost more.

We don't know if we will remain in the EEA (my preference) or something more radical yet so it will be better once the uncertainty is over.

Shares (FTSE100) are up because £ is down and most of the companies are international and make their profits in $.

U.K. Based shares (FTSE250) are down.

It's an illusion of additional wealth.

Food, heating, clothes, petrol etc will all be 10% more expensive because they are imported. If you get paid in £, you are now, or will be, 10% poorer.

I'm not attacking you, Larry. If you disagree, report my posts for breaking the Talk guidelines. It is not a personal attack to tell you that you are wrong.

As interesting and important your question about cable specifics was I am not going to out myself by answering your detailed questions on how exactly I know what I know.

Meanwhile, on reflexion, how realistic do you find your prediction that it will take years to set up just a trading room but that a country like the UK will be able to negotiate all its trade agreements fairly quickly?

I don't find it realistic at all. If you think that is a personal attack, I don't know what to say to you.

I can answer that. It takes 10 days to get a decent piece of cable network into most of the major banking cities in the world to enable a terminal for trading. Staff could probably move about that fast if paid. Money speaks volumes.

Negotiating in Europe requires some negotiators. We have about 20 people with experience to europes 500 current, experienced team. And we are shit at negotiating which we have already demonstrated by asking for some no-brainer things earlier on this year and still not achieving it.

Larry - cote is not personally attacking you, she is questioning your posts here - and I would agree with her questioning of them.

In fact, if anyone is attacking anyone, it is you attacking her with your 'petanque' nonsense. Play the ball, not the player.

I suspect you're talking crap, and know it. You don't like Cote calling you on it.

Let's remember why trading floors are not in France at least. None of the higher up staff on higher incomes want to pay the much higher taxes in Europe.

You can move FS within a week if you want to.

I assume that's why France's proposing a more favourable tax regime for skilled expats alongside their invitation for FS to relocate from London to Paris.

It will possibly be similar to the Dutch one which is very attractive indeed.

I thought the Dutch had a 20% cap on bonuses specifically because they do not want Amsterdam to be the next London.

The tax/ bonus rules are irrelevant, though, if it becomes impossible to do certain types of business from London due to the need for passporting. Those jobs will move, and their current occupants will either go with them, or seek alternative employment.

I can't speak for very high earners, but with a low six figure income, I pay less tax in France than I would in the UK, due to being taxed as a family unit of four people. (By "tax" I mean NI + income tax).

I'm not involved in banking, but from a long distance perspective it looks likely that France will get the French banking, Germany the German banking and the real winner will be WallStreet. NYC will take a nice slice of the bespoke investment banking because neither Paris nor Frankfurt, nor Amsterdam will have enough of the business to build up network effects or to have a deep enough pool. Also, as a separate matter, I keep reading in the papers that the banks in Europe are looking weak.

Why would NY gain business that can't be done from London due to passporting? That makes no sense.

They wouldn't. But if London shrinks substantially because it loses passporting, it is likely to shrink even further, losing other related business, as it's network and the depth of it's financing pool shrinks.

Once that has happened, I presume those bits of the business will most likely be creamed off by NYC.

Post 9/11 Dealing rooms that had been destroyed were set up within a week (admittedly not at full capacity) elsewhere within a week and were back to full capacity within 8 weeks.

Since then, even more work has been done on Disaster Recovery/contingency plans.

I used to work in telecoms/data centres. If the banks (like RBS or HSBC) said jump, we said "how high". Major new bandwidth could be installed within days if the capacity was there. If it wasn't there, a whole new network layer (multiple Gb) can be built within months for a price. It can and has been done.

Data centres can now be supplied in containerised units - literally plug'n'play.

pretty The trading platforms were moved to Jersey City which were their back up centers so they were already set up to switch over if needed. Immediately trading on that day moved to London and Toronto until the exchanges shut. I remember the chilling atmosphere as we downloaded trading books from NYC (I was a junior) and got the traders updated so they could manage their risk.

I'm not sure why everyone is making this fuss about technology that is easily and quite quickly replicated.

Also we are making the assumption that there isn't spare capacity in these cities which already have this technology.

It's a weird negotiating with the desired future thing that people do. I expect there's a psychological term for it.

Funnily enough it's currently breaking out on the Remain side following today's news with a surprising number of people deciding that with May in charge Brexit won't happen.

WAnt2b,

Yes i remember a business trip to NYC 1 month after 9/11. I remember taking a ferry to visit GS in NJ. Was really tiny dealing room...strange atmosphere!

Took years to move back I think...