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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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georgedawes · 26/06/2016 23:14

Great thread. The Boris article is incredible. He's actually just described the eu. What utter contempt he must have for us all.

Izlet · 26/06/2016 23:16

In any case, this whole shebang has been an almighty cock up. It all stemmed from little more than a schoolboy spat and has got completely out of control. Boris is trying to save face but no one is fooled. I agree he has been outmanoeuvred and is scrabbling about looking for a way out forward.

Psycobabble · 26/06/2016 23:17

Have you seen Jeremy Corbyns latest statement ? Looks like he isn't going anywhere

TheRollingCrone · 26/06/2016 23:17

So Boris basically wants access to the European Market and freedom of movement? In other words EU membership. Fuck me he's Kafkaesque in his idiocy.

TheBathroomSink · 26/06/2016 23:17

I really wish the DT hadn't done away with their comments. I can only imagine what they would have made of this.

Izlet · 26/06/2016 23:18

The NHS will probably get bunged a fiver.

Psycobabble · 26/06/2016 23:18

Also , great thead been reading on and off all day

Sierra259 · 26/06/2016 23:18

The Boris article is incredible. He's actually just described the EU

^This. I don't know whether to Grin or Sad or Angry. Or petition MNHQ for a facepalm emoticon.

LordRothermereBlackshirtCunt · 26/06/2016 23:21

I think he's deliberately setting himself up to fail the leadership contest. He knows he has to be seen to attempt to clean up his shit, but he really can't be arsed.

Izlet · 26/06/2016 23:21

So Boris basically wants access to the European Market and freedom of movement? In other words EU membership. Fuck me he's Kafkaesque in his idiocy.

Yep, and he's hoping that none of the Leave crowd will notice.

areyoubeingserviced · 26/06/2016 23:22

Boris" article - What a load of bollocks.
I was half expecting him to say'We will fight this , we shall never surrender.'
In the words of that great philosopher of our time, Del Trotter, BJ is a 'plonker'.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 23:26

I was half expecting him to say'We will fight this , we shall never surrender.'

He did, didn't he?

Oh wait. We are not supposed to notice that he's in fact NOT Churchill at all.

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 23:26

You've got to think that article is evidence that Osborne isn't the only one with substance abuse issues :-/

Izlet · 26/06/2016 23:26

I do suspect he will deliberately throw the leadership contest so a Remainer wins, then all the Brexit team will be exonerated from doing anything. At that point there will be a motion in Parliament to ignore the referendum and everything will carry on as before. Although there will probably be some form of punishment in store for the UK from the EU for the stink caused.

Dozer · 26/06/2016 23:27

Yes, there should be a special emoticon or 10 for all this. Perhaps clementine churchill giving the V, and not the one for victory.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 23:35

Sounds like Gideon's done a deal to save his skin...

Izlet · 26/06/2016 23:39

From where I'm sitting in EU land the locals are finding all these antics very amusing. It's like a bad South American soap opera.

I'm not sure any exemplary punishment from the EU is necessary, the rest of Europe has seen the currency tank and the markets take a dive, infighting in the opposition party (and probably the party in power as well shortly), a risk of secession and rising xenophobia, in a supposedly stable country renown for its tolerance and sang froid. They're not going to want to bring any of this upon themselves.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 23:43

Isn't he sounding all Prime Minister-y.

Hmmmm....

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 23:53

Although there will probably be some form of punishment in store for the UK from the EU for the stink caused.

It goes deeper than that:

  • Since the UK is soon to be stripped of all voting rights on EU legislation once it is no longer a member, nobody needs to cut a deal with it, since it's not like that favour can be returned. EU governments horse-trade support with each other as various pieces of legislation are debated, that some like more than others and need alliances for. Cameron got a deal in February by promising support for other stuff to different countries. That's no longer a bargaining chip now.
  • The EU is a political project that is important to its members, as a post-war project to ensure peace in Europe, in a way that the UK doesn't really grasp. Gambling for personal political advancement while risking the collapse of that project will not be taken lightly. The UK will no longer be tolerated as a trouble-maker as it has been for the past 43 years, when it obtained a ream of special concessions in order to get it to stay. No need for special concessions (like immigration caps) now, since the UK staying in is no longer on the cards.
  • Since there are other populist movements gaining heart and strength from the referendum result, there is a strong need to really really pillory the UK, to make an example out of it. This is regrettable, but if the UK is just handed EEA membership rather than have its balls handed to it on a plate, then it's basically inviting Marine LePen and Geert Wilders to take over in their own countries.

So Boris's wish list to officially leave the EU while totally remaining in the EU is very nice, but it's not going to happen any time soon, and not without a struggle, and definitely not with a Conservative Party Leaver doing the negotiating.

TheRollingCrone · 26/06/2016 23:54

Grin Misti

Izlet · 27/06/2016 00:10

Rice yes, I know that, I was referring to a hypothetical situation whereby a remainer won the leadership contest and ignored the referendum result, with the UK remaining in the EU. Their would probably be a punishment of sorts, but not to the extent of the exemplary punishment to be meted out in the case of Article 50 being invoked.

Izlet · 27/06/2016 00:11

As in not the Boris version of leaving but remaining.

Izlet · 27/06/2016 00:14

A way, I've had wine and it's late so I'm probably incoherent. Off to bed to see what the new week brings.

chocomochi · 27/06/2016 06:50

What on earth is Boris going on about?! Thought he was passionate about leaving the EU and that's what he campaigned for?! His article definitely sounds like he wants to remain (bar the UK making its own laws). Idiot splitting up the country without even having the guts to implement what he promised.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 07:28

Osborne didn't address the petition at all. He was very clear though, stating that the people have spoken and we will abide by that vote.

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