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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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TheNorthRemembers · 26/06/2016 22:40

Thank you for posting it TheBathroomSink.

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 22:43

Mitzy

The BBC just read his Telegraph article and are referring to this sentence in it: "I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. "

LineyReborn · 26/06/2016 22:44

Yes, Johnson has been outmanoeuvred. Most absolutely.

DoctoraNova · 26/06/2016 22:44

Also, doesn't detect any appetite for indyref2? My, he does like to rewrite the storybooks, doesn't he?

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 22:44

Which I think he means: "Keep sending those subsidies and research grants"

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 22:45

Ah, thanks Rice!

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 22:49

He's describing the Leave campaign's fantasy: keep the Single Market, cap immigration, keep EU grants and funds, and distract voters with talk of Independence Day instead of revealing that you're still paying into the EU budget and still adopting every piece of single market legislation written in Brussels.

Good luck to him. I'll be curious to see how many of the EU-27 are willing to wear any part of that. Since he's also planning to drag it out for years, no doubt some of them will be by that time.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 22:50

Doctoranova Grin
He didn't detect any appetite for Scottish referendum at the cricket match at earl Spencer's where he spent this weekend? Weird that eh? A conclusive sample of the population I'd say....

With this "narrow victory" wording, is he preparing the ground for saying it's too narrow to axis on the basis of?

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 22:51

Boris's article (thanks for posting it) is utter bullshit isn't it?

How does he think he's going to get away with it? Even the press are waking up now ffs. I think he's actually lost all connection with reality. This man cannot be allowed to take charge of negotiations. He'll be eaten alive.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 22:51

So in short, Johnson has written an article in the style of Churchill which is more empty bollocky waffle.

He can't even have has own style. He has to pretend he is some kind of war hero.
And we are supposed to buy into it.

Do fuck off Johnson. I'm still waiting for my plan.

Oh, you don't have one do you.
Bugger.

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 22:54

I actually find that article quite frightening. It's either a lie from start to finish - and I know politicians lie, but they don't usually double down like this when they have already been caught out - or the most extraordinary example of deluded and disordered thinking I've seen in a educated adult for a long while.

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 22:55

'Johnson has written an article in the style of Churchill'

In one of the many Brexit article I read this weekend it said that although Johnson is desperate to be Churchill II all he really has in common is his girth.

TheNorthRemembers · 26/06/2016 22:56

Mistigri Exactly my feelings. Has he lost it completely?

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 22:56

Of course it's bullshit. But it will convince and reassure many.

And reassured people don't really need to know that in order to access the single market, you're still paying dues and still adopting all that horrible legislation drafted by unelected bureaucrats. As long as you just keep saying that you've thrown off those shackles often enough and convincingly enough.

TheRollingCrone · 26/06/2016 22:57

We can't have BJ as PM, we just fucking can't. I can't look the World in the face as it is
No we need May, then snap election.
I can't help but hope they string out the article 50, and Europe collapses < says two hail Marys and a Glory be>
However if that happen I truly think trade deals and free movement will be the least of our troubles.
Fuck.
I feel for JC, but agree he's unelectable as PM.
I actually like S.Khan but he's got London.
What a mess
Someone mentioned Pittington Patel
Anybody BUT Priti Patel.
OH and I think Gideon is in the priory.
And this thread and you lot are great, cos if we don't laugh we'll cry.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 22:57

Johnson:
This EU referendum has been the most extraordinary political event of our lifetime. Never in our history have so many people been asked to decide a big question about the nation’s future. Never have so many thought so deeply, or wrestled so hard with their consciences, in an effort to come up with the right answer.

Churchill:
Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.

And that is why I could not take a word of the Bollocky Waffle seriously, because apparently we are still in propaganda mood, with a good bit of 'Flag Waving' going on there.

Fuck off, just fuck off with the nationalism.
Its the LAST thing we need at the moment you utter, utter, moronic cunt.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 23:00

RiceCT that's it, you con a lot of people a lot of the time, even more so when you've got Murdoch behind you ... same people who were interviewed on Friday morning saying "it's brilliant we're independent now" will also cheer when he announces "points based immigration system like Australia" in place (regardless of what that actually means in terms of outcomes) and when he throws a headline grabbing bit of £££ for NHS into a budget (which actually would have been due anyway or gets taken away in the small print)...

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 23:03

Gideon offered plum job by Johnson and Gove according to Telegraph.
Plus he's making early morning statement to markets ...
So let's see tomorrow whether he looked like he spent the weekend coked up in a brothel*

  • I jest of course, I'm sure he would never, ever do anything like that in real life....
MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 23:04
Grin
SwedishEdith · 26/06/2016 23:05

"Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS."

*We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees."

Boris who dismissed £250,000 second salary as 'chicken feed'

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 23:07

Well at least we know what Boris has been up to all weekend. Not formulating anything that looks like a "plan", by the looks of it.

DorynownotFloundering · 26/06/2016 23:08

BoJo, Gove AND Gideon ......aaaarrgh!!!

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 23:09

A lot of people would not be happy with Theresa May as leader. I certainly wouldn't be.

Izlet · 26/06/2016 23:09

Blimey, that article was blatantly a long list of cooked up tripe. Loving the guaranteeing free movement and residency rights without actually consulting anyone in the EU. Has he been at the mushrooms?

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 23:10

"Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels. Instead we'll be sending a different, possibly higher, sum of money in order to gain access to the single market. But it won't be the exact same sum of money so that sentence is still technically correct."