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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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SwedishEdith · 26/06/2016 16:20

UKIP got a 13% vote share in the election - big risk the could get more I current climate.

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 16:20

LaurieFairyCake I really hope/wish that were true.
But I think if there is any side-stepping of this referendum result, thru party collusion or some creative "renegotiate" then I think ukip/bnp will put up numpty candidates in every single constituency under the banner "they don't listen to you, they think you're too stupid to vote, we're the only people that you can count on" ..
I think we need to be really careful over next steps after this referendum... Ok, losing Eu bad enough but don't turn next general election into landslide for "one issue" party to sweep the board....

SwedishEdith · 26/06/2016 16:21

But not under FPTP system.

PreAdvent13610 · 26/06/2016 16:22

A state of emergency could be called, not likely at the moment but if civil unrest and racist attacks increased significantly, it is possible.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 16:22

I think if NS vetoes the Brexit, she should completely give up on the indyref2 for her career. Otherwise she would appear as a massive hypocrite. Imagine the field day the media and other parties would have with that?

You want to control us staying in the EU, but you don't want us to control you staying in the UK?

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 16:23

Gideon - I wonder if he's resigned behind the scenes (same time as DC) but he's been asked to keep it quiet for a couple of weeks until way forward clearer and markets less spooked*

  • not that I think the markets bothered about him personally, but might be perception of too much leadership vacuum if they walked out together....
GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 16:25

Civil unrest and racist attacks would like decline pretty sharpish if our leadership reappeared and made an effort to reassure the country in some way, rather than hiding and trying to scrabble for leadership of their parties. And if DC actually did his job and showed himself and such, instead of hiding and pouting.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 16:26

Personally I think the markets were much more reassured by Mark Carney's statement than they ever would have been by the appearance of Osborne.

MrsLupo · 26/06/2016 16:28

If Nicola Sturgeon vetoes Brexit ... She will also use the momentum to call for an independence referendum.

She would rather avoid a referendum atm if she can successfully veto Brexit instead, I'm sure. Independence and separate EU membership is a much more expensive, risky and onerous process.

Since I'm in England (for now!), I hope she succeeds!

TooMuchMNTime · 26/06/2016 16:30

Laurie, sorry, my brain did that thing of thinking I'd typed out my whole thought! I meant ukip would win seats, sorry. Even if they don't, if they increase their percentage share that won't help either.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 16:33

But ultimately she wants another indyref - and she will look like an utter hypocrite if she blocks Brexit and then even a couple years down the road asks for another indyref. If she blocks it, I suspect it would be at the cost of losing that second indyref, so I don't think that she will ultimately take the chance of blocking it.

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 16:35

Ultimately being the key word.

I've seen estimates that something like 4 out of 10 SNP voters are not separatists. (That may have changed since Thursday of course).

Luckymummy22 · 26/06/2016 16:58

This is not the time for Independence & NS knows this. She doesn't want it now. She wanted to strengthen her position & call it at a time when she knew she would win. The price of Oil at the moment is very low & Scotland is very dependent on it.

BUT she has been forced into a corner & she is working bloody hard to get the best outcome for the pepole of Scotland.

She's weighing up her options & not ruling anything ouy.

I'm actually guesing that she is trying to figure out what EUs view on Scotland is now. It may be that they are in a much more powerful position now.

Scotland never leave the EU & move the jobs from London to Edinburgh / Glasgow & probaby Dublin. Thus might actually be more palatable to many businesses than moving the jobs to the continent.

I'm hoping if she plays her cards right Scotland might benefit from this. We will be seen by the world as the part of the UK that is not small minded, inward looking, Xenophobes. (I'm not saying that it's the case. But it might be to the outside world).

If she won't get Scotland into EU soon then I think we'd be best in UK. She knows this.

It's good that she will be included in the negotiations. Whilst she is representing Scotland she might just help the UK as a whole. She's actually the only one I think can achieve anything.

As for England (where I unfortunately live - sorry pretty disgusted now) I feel that we are up shit creek. Wales even more so.
I agree with the article. The only one who really wanted Brexit was Niger Farage. Boris is in trouble & I don't know how it will play out.

But that's the most worrying thing. These idiots with all there Eton education & bags of money have changed all our lives forever with there power games. Can never be forgiven.

Maggie actions wiped the Tories out of Scotland (although Ruth Davidson is doing an amazing job - really like her). It's time for the Tories to be removed from the map in England too. Just not replaced by UkIP or other racist parties.
We need Corbyn gone. He is not a leader & does not come across well in public. Whilst he is leader I cannot vote for Labour. But we do need a strong opposition.

Don't know where we go from here. But the public (albeit naively) have spoken si we need to move forward & now leave EU 😢

PattyPenguin · 26/06/2016 17:12

Nicola Sturgeon's real problem is that the EU won't want to accept an independent Scotland. The EU will be under pressure not to do so from member states like Spain and Italy, which don't want their restive regions encouraged to go for independence too (or any more than they already are).

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 17:14

Realistically speaking, the Leave campaign couldn't present a specific plan, as Boris/Gove are not the PM - they could not present a specific plan to the public, as they cannot guarantee it would go that way, as they don't have the power to do so at the moment.

The PM/acting government, however, should have had a plan as to what exactly needed to be done in the event of a Leave win. It doesn't seem like they do. I kind of expected if Leave won, that the government would be disappointed, irritable even, but say "Shit. Right then, guess we'll crack on" and implement whatever plan they had. As they've not done so, I'm wondering if they even prepared for that eventuality. Hmm

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 17:24

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

Apparently some fraudulent names on the petition, some 77K of them, and the person that started it said that he actually started it a month ago when he thought remain might win. Interesting. Also Cameron has stated previously that there would be no second referendum.

Bearbehind · 26/06/2016 17:27

This thread is really interesting- it does feel like there is something brewing we don't know about- it's too quiet.

I don't agree that NS couldn't both block Brexit and ask for another referendum.

The fallback position for the last Scottish referendum was that they'd remain in the EU, even though there wasn't a cat in hells chance they could get in on their own as it stood.

She's clever enough to present a case to stay in the EU firstly by blocking Brexit then saying that it's clear the long term wish of rUK is to leave so call for another referendum for independence.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 17:28

Realistically speaking, the Leave campaign couldn't present a specific plan, as Boris/Gove are not the PM - they could not present a specific plan to the public, as they cannot guarantee it would go that way, as they don't have the power to do so at the moment.

So, tell me...

What the fuck was this all about then?
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/leave_ministers_commit_to_maintain_eu_funding

SwedishEdith · 26/06/2016 17:30

Cameron also said he'd invoke Article 50 immediately.

I think all bets are off on what people said before Thursday.

Bearbehind · 26/06/2016 17:34

I agree swedish, he also said he'd stay whatever the result and that lasted a few hours.

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/06/2016 17:36

Alistair Campbell sitting on the fence there about Johnson

'If Boris Johnson is PM, I'll be ashamed to be British'.

TendonQueen · 26/06/2016 17:48

If Sturgeon can block Brexit, she could make devo max her price for letting Boris off the hook, and tell the Scots this is the best compromise as then they don't have to queue to join the EU for ten years. Still keeps indyref2 as weapon in reserve.

MrsLupo · 26/06/2016 17:53

What's the plan Stan?:
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/faisal-islam-brexit-no-plan_uk_576fe22ee4b0d2571149cffd?yptr=yahoo&ref=yfp

I'd been hoping the eerie silence in Westminster meant there was frantic activity going on behind the scenes which was going to lead to a good, or at least fair, outcome after all.

I'm starting to worry that in reality the silence means no one in Westminster has a fucking clue what to do next.

Maybe they're all busy checking their family trees for Irish ancestry. Sad

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