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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 14:58

If NS sidesteps Brexit to get Boris out of his pickle, she can probably extract a lot of concessions from him as her price. Using the threat of indyref2. (Which is rather a lot like Boris's tactic with the EU referendum)

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 15:01

Personally I think DC created the stick by calling the referendum but BoJo, Gove and Faraway added the shit. If they hadn't been such a bunch of liars then it would have been a remain vote. So why should DC clear up the mess?
I want to know what's afoot. Something clearly is. The longer everyone hides away the less likely it is we will leave. I think they are all frantically trying to create a feasible way to get out of this before markets open on Monday.
I wish Nicola Sturgeon could be PM, she's the only half credible one of the bunch imo.

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 15:02

Rice except that Nicola is a mich more intelligent and less self-interested politician than Boris (wouldn't vote for her party but I admire her as a very smart woman).

Felascloak · 26/06/2016 15:02

If the 425 remain politicians all resign because they can't support brexit, what happens then? Would that also trigger a GE?
I really think a GE soon with a remain platform is the best way out of this. FIn gets crossed

Dumdedumdedum · 26/06/2016 15:04

Felascloak, when you say: I want to know what's afoot. Something clearly is. The longer everyone hides away the less likely it is we will leave. I think they are all frantically trying to create a feasible way to get out of this before markets open on Monday., I really, really want you to be right, but on past performances, have absolutely no hope that this is what is happening.

SwedishEdith · 26/06/2016 15:05

*This bet for £130,000 is odd in that it was definitely out of the pattern of betting.

Aaron Banks of Leave.eu said during the night on Thursday, they had been doing their own exit polling and the results were in line with that.*

I saw that as it happened on Twitter as well. Odd, as it was around the time Farage was saying Remain had won. Well, clearly not odd at all.

kittybiscuits · 26/06/2016 15:06

I agree. But DC definitely added an extra dollop of diarrhoea when he said he'd leave it up to his successor to decide about article 50.

Don't be mean about Gideon. I think he might be ill. Something about 'just having a bit of a cold at the moment' or something. Wink

TheTurtleMoves · 26/06/2016 15:09

It is all both darkly fascinating and terribly scary at once. From my brief reading of legislative consent motions in Scottish Parliament, it would seem possible for MSPs to refuse consent to Brexit as it would apply to Scotland and thus comprehensively screw things up for Johnson/Gove/Farage ET al.

Definitely the law of unintended consequences kicking in I think.

Now I don't particularly want to fuel nationalism in Scotland, I'd rather we remain united, but I sure as hell would rather be led by Sturgeon than Johnson.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 15:15

Don't be mean about Gideon. I think he might be ill. Something about 'just having a bit of a cold at the moment' or something.

I'm not. I'm starting to get quite concerned about him. At what point should we think about filing a missing person report?

ObiWanCannelloni · 26/06/2016 15:28

From Twitter

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?
SpaceKablooie · 26/06/2016 15:34
Grin
RedToothBrush · 26/06/2016 15:39

Gideon Watch almost deserves its own thread.

RiceCrispieTreats · 26/06/2016 15:51

Gideon Watch almost deserves its own thread.

Behold: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/2669759-Where-the-fuck-is-George-Osbourne

caroldecker · 26/06/2016 15:51

NRTFT but the OP quote concludes that Parliament can ignore the referendum result because they did not call a boat 'Boaty mcboatface'

Mistigri · 26/06/2016 15:55

Well, it can. The referendum has no more legal weight than the Boaty poll. It has a bit more political significance of course.

MrsLupo · 26/06/2016 15:55

I want to know what's afoot. Something clearly is. The longer everyone hides away the less likely it is we will leave. I think they are all frantically trying to create a feasible way to get out of this before markets open on Monday.

I feel like this too. At least, I hope this is what's happening.

I suspect Gideon is having a mahoosive nervous breakdown.

TooMuchMNTime · 26/06/2016 16:04

Asia markets will open soon
I reckon they will make some holding comment tomorrow lunchtime and see how the Tuesday protest goes.
I think it would mad to call a GE because UKIP will win so either second ref or parliament vote on a motion to ignore ref result

I think it's irresponsible for Labour to try a leadership coup now.

STIDW · 26/06/2016 16:08

So, if the UK doesn't invoke Article 50 soon, could the EU suspend us, by invoking Article 7?

Doubt it because the referendum isn't legally binding & sovereignty lies with our democratically elected representatives in Parliament. However antagonising EU leaders by disregarding their wish to proceed quickly would be counter productive - 1) it would make it difficult to reach agreement 2) uncertainty is a risk to the UK, EU & global economies.

LaurieFairyCake · 26/06/2016 16:10

There is no way UKIP would win a general election Shock

They're pretty much irrelevant - 7% of them voted Remain

They couldn't field more than 10 candidates

They hardly get any votes

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 16:10

Can someone remind me of the basics of the Scotland referendum from last time? Didn't they have to get agreement from the UK government to have it to begin with? Was the result legally binding in that case?

I'm getting very uncomfortable with the idea that they're all looking to subvert the vote, even if it's not legally binding, because it will cause a huge rift in the country.

And how can NS say to block the EU referendum and then expect them not to try to block the indyref or simply refuse to give it? And could the UK government refuse to allow the indyref due to the significant damage and division it would do to the country during a vulnerable time - while they're negotiating brexit?

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 16:11

If Nicola Sturgeon vetoes Brexit ... She will also use the momentum to call for an independence referendum.

She can't do both IMO. No Brexit = no indyref2. There would be carnage if we vetoed and still fucked off.

GingerIvy · 26/06/2016 16:12

Hmmm... I heard a fair number of people say there's no way Leave would win either, but it happened. I'm not sure I'd want to chance a GE right now.

LaurieFairyCake · 26/06/2016 16:14

She wouldn't do both

I strongly suspect she's more pro-Europe than anything else - she's an intelligent pragmatist and principled.

And much less likely imo to put personal gain and careerism above what Scotland actually needs - which is to stay in Europe

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 16:14

If the 425 remain politicians all resign because they can't support brexit, what happens then? Would that also trigger a GE?

There should be a vote of no confidence in the government IMO. BY THE TORY MPs, about themselves. It's one of the ways this could all be sidestepped.

PrimalLass · 26/06/2016 16:17

And much less likely imo to put personal gain and careerism above what Scotland actually needs - which is to stay in Europe

^^ This

I heart Nicola