Brexit and Ireland - any insights?

[Kitsa]

I've seen a few comments on Ireland in other threads and would be really interested to know how Irish people and others with any knowledge of it think Brexit will affect Ireland?

DH DS and I are moving within the next month to the Republic - Letterkenny area, ish, so near the border.

I ask not because I'm worried about things effecting us personally exactly but just because I'm interested. I've been going there all my life (my grandma has lived there 40 years and mum was born in Dublin so am a duel citizen) and wonder what people both in the Republic and also in NI think will be the effects.

How are you feeling about things?

a report from 2 days before the vote.....quoting a "very senior Brussels bureaucrat "

Oh please....

Precedents have been set, that this 'very senior Brussels bureaucrat' is conveniently ignoring.

Id guess a little like the refugee crisis and the EUs very clear stance on that one "well of course, they MUST register at the first eu state they enter" quotes a 'very senior Brussels bureaucrat '............

You're hanging an awful lot on those precedents, considering many of them will no longer have any legal basis after Brexit.

They do in the EU user, and thats the point.

I admire your enthusiasm Chris but I'm not convinced.

It is rather binary and I can't see any good reason for quite such optimism.

Saying that you have argued it well.

They do in the EU user, and thats the point

The UK won't be in the EU, and THATS the point. You can't use EU legislation and practice to underpin an agreement when only one of those parties is in the EU.

Between 2009 and 2011 Lloyds and RBS bailed out Ireland to the tune of £14bn at the request of the govt on the basis of our trading relationship.

Does anyone actually think we are going to throw that away now?

As for the border, why can't it be guarded (if necessary) from the Irish side?

Thank you spin......the thing is, I absolutely believe they will resolve this, with far far greater minds.

Just watching the footy though............COME ON WALES!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hope so,

The mild abuse I got at the beginning of the thread was down to my assumption that the EU would over rule the Irish government. This, I think in particular, makes their position in the EU untenable.

I got the message earlier though so don't shoot the messenger!

What a brilliant game of footy... oh my. Well after the excitement of all that......

User Ireland is remaining in the EU. The position on the independant UK side, is yes, under UK law.
If the UK say, we're proposing to continue the CTA , which they have already done re exit checks, it will be for Ireland and/or the EU to say no. IMO, it isnt the UK side that is the problem.

Im saying, the EU cant just argue a fierce hard border with a non eu state is a mandatory requirement, (Im sorry to disagree with the very senior brussels bureaucrat ^^ when they have an open one with Norway, also non eu state.

Well Norways in the schengen! Comes the reply.

And Im saying Norways in the schengen as part of a deal to trade with the EU. The eu 'bought' Norways border in return for trade. So in short, they cant rely on non eu-state status, to demand a hard border. They can demand a price for it but here, I feel a churchill quote coming on ;

“Churchill: "Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?" Socialite: "My goodness, Mr. Churchill... Well, I suppose... we would have to discuss terms, of course... "
Churchill: "Would you sleep with me for five pounds?"
Socialite: "Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!" Churchill: "Madam, we've already established that. Now we are haggling about the price”
In short the open border is absolutely legally available to be 'bought'. Throw in the mixing pot the CTA, and the EU has a big big problem. Politically and on a world stage. Is the EU going to hold BOTH Ireland (its own eu member state) and the NI to ransom over their own border?

Of course this is just IMO.... but thats where I am. There will be no hard border.

Spin..... I know you can do it......but I like binary....

'As for the border, why can't it be guarded (if necessary) from the Irish side?'

Why would Ireland want to? What would be the incentive?

Spin, there is no way Ireland will leave. We are not morons.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/interests-realign-in-northern-ireland-after-brexit-vote-1.2705600
I suspect that eventually, NI will seek to leave the UK and that talks on a federal republic will begin. Maybe not tomorrow. Maybe not next week.

But 56/44 means that unionists voter to remain.

Martin McGuinness was rebuked by Fianna Fail and by the government for his call for a border poll. But everyone, north and south, is quietly working to ensure the border does not become a factor in economic (or political) life again.

There is a fatal mix of arrogance and ignorance in Westminster when it comes to the achievement of all sides in NI to (1) come up with the GFA and (2) make it work. I get a sense that parties on all sides are feeling that Westminster pulled the rug out from under all of their feet, and not even for a serious reason - the referendum was a massive piece of game playing that was part of a power struggle in the Conservative party, carried out with no regard whatsoever for the impact on anyone. That sent a message to NI that NI cannot take Westminster attention for granted, and has to fight for its own best interests; the vote split shows that NI has already done some thinking about that. It cannot have escaped the notice of NI voters that Ireland remains in the EU.

I'm not sure if it's evident that the peeved and truculent EU is simply going to accept Ireland backing up the British position. I'm not even sure the Irish representatives would necessarily accept it, sinn fein in particular.

There is a potential battle of wills here hence it could come down to actual power in which case the EU has many levers it could apply. Once we actually leave Ireland could well become a greater net contributor for instance.

Depends how far you think the EU hierarchy would go. The article I posted certainly gave an idea of the mood.

"There is a fatal mix of arrogance and ignorance in Westminster"

Defo agree on that one Math

Ireland is part of the EU. You can't speak of the peeved and truculent EU separate from Ireland. Yes Ireland is small, but as part of the Eurozone, Ireland's recovery needs propping up. Hurting Ireland while trying to spite the UK might not be a good idea.

If Sinn Fein was seen to adopt a purely hardline Republican stance, sticking the boot into the UK, or refusing to go along with efforts to get Ireland a deal wrt UK trade, then some of its voters might look elsewhere, because Irish voters tend to like the idea of jobs. There is no NHS in Ireland, and welfare tends to be less wrap-around than in the UK. PR in Ireland means voters can vote with their heads as well as their hearts. Voters might decide to give SF their fifth preference instead of their first.

Wrt the subject of unrest - I doubt NI will be the area of the UK to go up in flames, though the upcoming marching season will be an interesting one to watch.

I think that if nothing changes after Brexit for ordinary people in the north of England, there could be actual revolution or at least mob rule there with much right wing ugliness on the streets, and if there is a GE I can see UKIP experiencing a huge upsurge in support.

UKIP will only have a huge upswing in support if we are still in the EU as disaffected Leavers make another protest vote.

Otherwise they will cease to exist as they are irrelevant. Not all bad then.

There is a huge range of reasons behind the Leave vote. It functioned as a lightning rod for disaffection of all colours. None of the deep (and misplaced) resentment is going to just evaporate. A lot of the resentment is focused on Tony Blair.

Britain will still be in the EU for a while as exit talks will take time. Trade talks will follow. Are trade agreements likely to come up with terms favourable to the unemployed, the disaffected, people up in arms about immigration?

UKIP peddles resentment.
It remains to be seen whether "Angry nativism does not win elections in this country" [Douglas Carswell, UKIP MP]. Looks like Carswell will soon be booted out of UKIP.
"Why would you join a party like UKIP, with me as the leader, with our policies and manifesto, and then from almost day one of joining, disagree with everything we say or do? I find it really, really odd.” [Farage].