Brexit and Ireland - any insights?

[Kitsa]

I've seen a few comments on Ireland in other threads and would be really interested to know how Irish people and others with any knowledge of it think Brexit will affect Ireland?

DH DS and I are moving within the next month to the Republic - Letterkenny area, ish, so near the border.

I ask not because I'm worried about things effecting us personally exactly but just because I'm interested. I've been going there all my life (my grandma has lived there 40 years and mum was born in Dublin so am a duel citizen) and wonder what people both in the Republic and also in NI think will be the effects.

How are you feeling about things?

There is no possibility of a hard border in Ireland, it can't be done. It's not politically feasible or economically possible. Which leaves you with a sea border between GB and the island of Ireland, which means UK citizens wouldn't have free movement in their own country.
Either would be a significant legal problem as well as practical one. Unless NI can get handed back to Ireland, which also can't happen, because: shitstorm.

Let's just hope that some assurances about the situation with NI borders are given pretty soon. Those politicians making noises about an opportunity united Ireland need to stop fanning the flames of an already delicate situation. It would be the biggest tragedy of this whole sorry mess if we were to return to those dark days again.

No one will put a border up. No one no one no one. The Uk certainly wont, so that leaves the EU to force the situation. They wouldnt dare force that situation on a world stage. It will be a special circumstance for a special situation, which works because you are on an island.

The practicalities simply are, have 2 wallets in your pocket for both currencies. Free movement between the 2 will be supported by all world leaders.

But its not just about free movement between the two, its the whole thing in microcosm; its the border between the whole of the EU and the the UK in total.

There us no special deal that can allow for new cross border agreements AND enforce any control over the EU border.
It's an oxymoron.

I don't believe there will be any appetite for a land border between the Republic and NI, I genuinely don't. I believe when tempers are calmed the EU will negotiate a reasonable deal with Britain and within that RO Ireland will be allowed a bilateral agreement with the U.K. Much and all as the EU are angry lest we forget it began life as the European Economic Community, for all our talk of maintaining peace in Europe, the main goal was to achieve prosperity. In order to do that the EU needs to maintain the most economically prosperous option available with the U.K. Which is to keep it in the common market.

I can see the mainland UK screwing over NI and Doing passport checks from all of Ireland to UK. They would rather pee off the ppl in NI than institute a hard border. Also the border would be fairly useless for "stopping migration" I know 50 ways across the border 5 miles down the road from me, anyone could cross it. For customs a soft border maybe

I believe when tempers are calmed the EU will negotiate a reasonable deal with Britain and within that RO Ireland will be allowed a bilateral agreement with the U.K

They can't possibly do that AND control the EU/UK border. They are diametrically opposed objectives.
The only option is to commit to full freedom of movement, same as you have now. Which kinda defeats the object of the whole shebang.

Agree border would be incredibly divisive so unlikely to happen. However ROI already has bilateral agreements predating the EU that allows for freedom of movement between the two countries so surely strengthening border of the island of Ireland with fast track exit for UK and Eire citizens the easiest way to go?

ROI also not in Schengen zone for same reason I think.

User yes they can as others have pointed this has already been allowed with Scandanavian countries and Ireland and the U.K. historically have a long standing bilateral arrangement that predates the EU so there is precedence. If we learned anything over the last crazy years since the banking crises began it is that under pressure the EU can be pretty unexpectedly flexible.

I think you're missing the fact that neither works politically, the Good Friday agreement hinges on EU law not UK/Ireland domestic law, and this isn't Scandinavia!
The arrangements that predated the EU are long gone, and of a very different time. I don't think many GB commentators are thinking of the particular legal and political nuance of the Ireland/NI issue.

user I'm not sure they are long gone, Irish citizens living in the UK have exactly the same rights as UK citizens right down to voting in last week's referendum.

No User the agreements that predate the EU still apply and in the main happily coexisted. The fact that the UK are leaving the EU means they will have to be revisited.

Do you really want to go back to the agreements of the pre 1973 era? Seriously?

User you mean the current agreements don't you? Here is one

Common Area Travel

There are others too though for other aspects of UK and ROI dealings.

No, I mean the vast changes that were made long after that. Some of which are even mentioned in your link.
If you think the common travel area is NOT impacted by a Brexit vote predicated on an immigration platform, I'm afraid you're completely out of touch.

NI will be in more trouble if Gove gets in. Described on Newsnight at further out than the DUP and would like to tear the GFA up.

User thanks for clearing up that I am out of touch and missing facts while all the while posting your own unsubstantiated speculation. Let's face it though speculation is all anybody has right about now including the entire EU and British establishment. So stop being so aggressive.

Im not being aggressive at all I'm bemused that noone is taking this aspect of brexit seriously enough at all. It's not comparable to Scandinavia, its not going to just work itself out and be fine.
Its a ticking time bomb that mishandled could have massive ramifications and hardly anyone is even giving it a footnote.

At Spin. What an ignorant post. Ireland is a net contributor to the EU, did the Mail fail to tell you that? Gobdaw.

The UK "took care" of Ireland for long enough. We'd rather set the country on fire than ever take that help again!

To utterly oversimplify things for a moment. Currently both the UK and Ireland are not in the schengen area. That means we dont have open borders and why we do have the problem in Calais.
What we do have currently are the same 'rules' applying in NI as in Ireland, so entry and movement within. (eu and non eu entry requirements) is not an issue. The checks are made at the point you arrive on the island.

There is also the historic 'special' agreement with Ireland extending rights of the Irish people to move freely through the UK and which reflects the EU laws on freedom of movement. In effect, a schengen agreement between Ireland and the UK, the CTA.

Now we have to look at some laws that have already been implemented. Heres David Camerons speech on his commitment to control immigration.
www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-on-immigration

Ideed, in 2010 Gordon Brown stated "we are already counting".

Here is also, the current UK situation on "exit" checks.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/exit-checks-on-passengers-leaving-the-uk/exit-checks-fact-sheet

Those within the Common Travel Area, have been excluded from this legislation. In effect, what that is saying, is there is and will be co-operation between those in the CTA to meet the UKs requirement re exit checks. The CTA top trumps UK legislation on exit checks.
And this has all been done whilst under EU law.
Is it an irrelevant point whilst in the EU? No.

You have placed a restriction, on people crossing a border. You have allowed a 'count' to happen, between eu member states. Could France ask to 'count' over the border to Belgium? No. Hungary tried to put a fence up on the border with Slovenia. It lasted 2 days. Those within the schengen area have no passport control, no count, no border. Those outside, have passport control and fierce borders. (Well lets not mention Croatia)

The UK placed the CTA higher than uk border legislation. They will do so again. Remember Irish citizens share the CTA rights, not eu citizens living in Ireland. So what will the EU do if the UK again allow the CTA to top trump border control? It will be for the EU to force a hard border between the two.

Remember with NI outside the EU, there is no longer an eu citizens right to reside, work, register for benefits, tax credits etc. However an Irish citizen can (under the CTA).
You also have to look historically at switzerland. No hard border but part of schengen yet outside the EU. The EU can and has allowed non eu members to be borderless.

Yes the prize, the single market, but having put a 'price' on a border, they cant really argue a hard border on a point of principle. i.e. territorial.

(This entire discussion would also be happening if David Cameron had secured a 'controlled migration' deal within the EU and we had subsequently remained. How was he going to count the migration into the UK from Ireland as 2 seperate eu member states?)

So for me, there is one sticking point. Will Ireland and the EU allow the CTA to top trump? I think they have to, as the alternative quite simply becomes a territorial issue. Just IMO.

Is an assumption that the EU will seek to enforce "their" border fair here Chris?

If you Posit that scenario then the conclusions are uncomfortable.

No, the opposite. My argument is, that precedents have already been set so even if they wanted to, they cant.

Hmm maybe..

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/leavers-are-deceiving-their-voters-about-the-pain-that-europe-co/

Would require the EU to soften their stance quite considerably I think.

Which highlights a deep divide between the wishes of the EU and it's constituent nation's governments.

Shall we agree that Ireland would have a tiring diplomatic fight on its hands?