Why are the markets and bookies so cocksure that we will remain?

[Auti]

Reading the comments section on various different newspapers show time and again support for Brexit. Even many Guardianista's are saying they want to leave and getting many likes/recommendations/up clicks.

Most people I know want to leave.

An in/out poll in the Telegraph early this morning had the leave vote at 69 per cent.

Yet the bookies and markets are sure it's remain.

Very odd..

Early results should give us a flavour of how it's going:

Predicted to declare their result at around 12.30am:

"Wandsworth should have a very strong remain showing, with Sunderland showing a narrower lead for Brexit, about 55-60%. Anything lower than that for Brexit will be a great start for remain campaigners." from the Guardian

They've said that there is more chance to make money in the city today than since 1992 because they know the market is going to move.

Someone is enjoying the referendum at least.

shinytorch 2- Sunderland will be the 1st seat declared I read in the paper it should be at least 52/48 for leave for them to have a chance of winning, Wandsworth is very pro EU & they said expect a 70% vote for stay

Yes that's right - they predict remain to be in the lead until about 3am and then it "should" get interesting, so I think Sunderland is an early indicator of whether it is worth staying up!! If Brexit doesn't do so well in Sunderland then it is an early indication that remain have won is how I'm interpreting it.

Auti very interesting, if slightly tin foil hat article (or maybe not?!)

I have been watching odds checker and couldn't understand why Remain were the odds on favourite when about 90% of the bets had been for remain. Stupidly, I hadn't thought about size of the bet before.

The FT had a bit on the exchange rate to the dollar - there was a bit of a surge just after 3, which suggests some hedge fund somewhere has just taken delivery of an exit poll that said remain. They just play the percentages, it's no guarantee of the result but I find it oddly compelling to constantly refresh the Google exchange rate anyway

No, no tin foil hats on that one.

Remember the bookies are not trying to guess the winner. Just make the most money possible...

But how can the bookies possibly know? I mean even the polls now?

The look on someones face as they leave the polls?

Yeah I'd go with things happening about 2.40pm this afternoon. The betting changed sharply.

Betfair said this morning that Leave bets had been largely small, with there being 3 bets on remain over £20,000.

This afternoon, I forget which bookies it was, but a bet of something like £130,000 appeared on Leave. (I think the article was from the Telegraph's live feed but don't quote me on that - I can't remember the exact details) Which doesn't match the pattern, which is why it caught my eye.

I don't think there is a clear lead in what information people have - the trading isn't tanking/going through the roof. BUT I do think its close, as its been uncertain with movement up and down on the betting and markets.

That's not to say that Remain doesn't have a lead. Its just that its closer than the bookies would initially lead you to believe.

The bookies don't know. They just look at how much money is being placed - and by who.

again bizarre..its gambling!

Its awful out there where I am truly hideous, I have seen elderly struggling at bus stops, traffic is jammed round polling stations with no proper place to park...people with mobility issues are going to struggle, I doubt my DF could get out in this...

Gosh, the whole pencil and pen thing is just so horrible. Sowing seeds of doubt and suspicion between the two camps. I have my issues with how the EU is run, I do but the brexit campaign and the whole dumbed down debate by Brexiters is too much. It's appealing to the lowest emotions and motives in people.

Well I know it's a bit simplistic but I thought that the remain vote was likely because the pollsters were using the past Scottish referendum vote to stay In uk as a likely indication how the majority would vote today .

I posted this on another thread, but it's probably more relevant here:

I feel pretty sure that Remain will win, with a bigger % than was first imagined. I say this for a number of reasons, some of which is based on work I've done in the past in market and social research:

• everyone is getting hyped up by social media which tends to be dominated by the folk who are angry and seeking change (e.g. Labour party in the last election) so it tends to over-estimate the 'change vote'. People who are more conservative (small 'c') and happy with the status quo don't feel the need to speak out/ justify it so much. This is why review sites are often dominated by the angry and unhappy - if you're satisfied with something your first thought isn't 'I must go and post about that somewhere'!
• there's a significant 'shy intelligentsia' in the UK who won't engage openly with the campaign and polls, but will turn out to vote, and they are significantly pro- Remain.
• The 'don't knows' are more likely to convert to Remain than Leave in the final stages - it's the 'better the devil you know' phenomenon - if they're still not sure then Remain is the easier, less stressful, status quo option...

Although there haven't been official national exit polls published, there are plenty of private polls being undertaken and I think the fact that the bookies are now showing Remain as the strong favourite to win suggests to me that all the private polls are predicting this too (with private pollsters taking a punt on their results?)

I agree with much of that.
I'm not so sure its going to translate into a big remain win yet though.

I'm still to be convinced. Though there is currently a late rally going on at the FTSE.

My DH sent me this. I just don't get this betting thing..
www.justbookies.com/election-odds/?gclid=CKrN3uXEvs0CFdUW0wodakgP9g

Very interesting thread! Thank you.

I think it is close: from the Telegraph feed -

Thin trading volumes tell you people haven't a clue!

"Trading volumes were thin as investors awaited the result of the Brexit referendum. Although early trade suggested increased expectations Britain would vote to stay in the EU, a small bout of jitters appeared to creep into markets in afternoon trade."

remain are getting far fewer individuals betting on remain but they are betting big sums, but leave is getting a big number of people betting on it but smaller bets, could be a sign leave is being underestimated

Two things worth considering. With the odds on remain being so short you need to put a substantial sum on to make it worthwhile.

A remain bet and a leave bet might attract different types of punters, leave bets placed by committed leave voters staking small sum (much how fans of a football team to pill off a giant killing) whereas remain is attracting professional gamblers weighing up probability and putting a large stake on the favourite.

super mum agree with much of that.

however also have to remember this is cross party and not every leaver is angry, ( although most seem to be) conservative with a small C do not like this change being foisted on us by Brussels.

Pound seems to be climbing...wonder if some of those private exit polls are coming in...?