The most surprising thing about this referendum campaign?

[fourmummy]

I have hugely enjoyed being on MN during this time, having intelligent debates with well-informed people, but I have also found some things surprising. The most surprising thing for me has been the idea that we'll be pushed back to the Dark Ages by the Tories, and that we therefore need EU to protect us against this. I have also been surprised by people's voting intentions in RL, which I wouldn't have predicted. Have you been surprised by anything?

kinkytoes "Also surprised by the emphasis on the economy by the Remain side. Like all anyone cares about is money."

Actually, it's just occurred to me that the current gov't basically won the last election by shouting 'ECONOMY' at every opportunity, I guess they felt it would work again.

John Mann is about the only freethinker Labour has got left. He is now the only person who can rescue Labour from decline, but I think he said once that he is not interested in being leader.

Agree Haircut, Boris Johnson has looked and sounded a little limp.

I'm surprised that Switzerland has just formally withdrawn its application to join the EU. That's sending us a BIG message - Leave. Iceland withdrew their application to join a while ago.

I'm surprised that a poll of Nursing Times readers has backed LEAVE. They obviously understand the dangers to the NH of opening it up to be sued by big American corporations.

I think This government won because the electorate didn't trust Miliband/Balls in the short term. If leave win perhaps it's because the electorate don't trust Merkel and her future equivalents long term.

Or is that just me?!

(I even voted Miliband but for tribal loyalty rather than with enthusiasm!)

There was a good article in the Guardian. I only skimmed it, should have read it in detail, but it said something like what we are seeing is the working class rebelling against the system, not really because of immigration or hostility to immigrants but because of a rebellion over their precarious existence where most people have less than £100 in the bank, can barely keep their head above water, ocan't see the prospect of buying a home, are in precarious jobs on low wages from which they could easily be fired and due to lack of security in employment and for the future, and immigration and the increased job competition just makes their life evn more precarious.

This elite class of servants and expense fidllers in parliament have ignored the plight of oridnary people and they sens out their millionaire luvvies like Izzard and Sir Bob to drum up support for their policies which have not helped the people.

The article said that this referendum is the only chance the working class see to get any change.

Before I get pounced on as a thickie I do realise Merkel is Chancellor of Germany. But her actions have repercussions within EU.

I have been surprised that some one didn't come along on the Leave side appealing to sleeping English Nationslism and identity. I think a lot of English people would be vulnerable psychologically and emotionally to this. For several centuries the English have been the "moderns" always changing, always pragmatic, losing a lot of folk ways, shared norms and common identity that human beings find comforting.

If someone came along who could reference the battle of Agincourt, Shakespeare's "This England" spiel from Richard II, throw in a bit of Blake's "Green and pleasant Land", and could do it all while sounding like Churchill rather than Hitler, he or she could really stir things.

It's dangerous, powerful, volatile stuff. So I am really pleased that the Leave side has been restrained. The temptation must be strong when they are desperate to win. It's a reason to admire the British that they have not.

Actually Boulevard I think they won it because people wanted a referendum.

Funny how the govt wants us to remain AND haven't made a plan for if we leave. It's as if they want us to think we wouldn't cope in the event of leaving.

'sane, intelligent, educated' remainers on MN who never fail to patronise & sneer at the 'thicko working classes'.

I think at its heart the educated and the uneducated have the same issues and a hell of a lot of common ground, but lack of education is a huge barrier in being able to articulate that same frustration in a way that doesn't come across as 'stupid' to those who are educated. It doesn't mean it IS stupid and the people saying it are stupid.

I also think there are few educated people who are able to articulate their own frustration, well and in a meaningful way. They can construct an argument that is on the surface of it 'good', but it doesn't go beyond that and look at causes / solutions properly.

Its almost like there are two languages being spoken and neither group understands the other, even though they are often saying the same things. If they learned to be able to talk together, they might find a few solutions and understand each other better.

We also need to all learn the language of politicians that is being used against ALL of us, to manipulate us all in some way. When we are unaware of it happening we are more vulnerable to its messages and its techniques. Propaganda is generally thought of as 'bad' but it is in reality neutral, and can be used for 'good' too. It depends on what your agenda is really. If 'the masses' don't know how to use it effectively themselves they will also be at a significant disadvantage.

We can only set the agenda and bring about change, if a) we are part of the conversation b) we understand the conversation and c) we know what the other party is really trying to say and how they might manipulate us d) we have a vision and a clear plan of what we want instead e) we can articulate that vision to others and motivate them to join us.

Brexit is not ticking those boxes for me I'm afraid. And I fear what's now next, regardless of who wins tbh. I don't think its good for anyone.

Which is why I feel even more frustrated about the whole thing.

'If someone came along who could reference the battle of Agincourt, Shakespeare's "This England" spiel from Richard II, throw in a bit of Blake's "Green and pleasant Land", and could do it all while sounding like Churchill rather than Hitler, he or she could really stir things. '

I don't think so. The English people are very tolerant and not nationalistic. I don't remember seeing any people with English flags painted on their faces during this campaign. We are irreverent, tolerant and wary of idealism or any ism, because we are pragmatic and middle of the road. Our sense of humour would rebel at anyone trying to invoke Agincourt or misuse Shakespeare. We don't need that type of patrotism because we are a very confident people, but we are sick and tired of the losers and liars who govern us and serve the elites instead of the people.

I'm not so sure Claig. I'm just thinking of the Engish football fans singing in France...

I think the English are human and subject to the same foibles that affect other groups, again, I think not pulling this leaver shows surprisingly good leadership from the Leave side.

Perhaps most surprising is that we were given a referendum

Did the establishment really, in the light of all the recent corruption scandals, think that the people could be persuaded to vote in the interests of the rich and powerful?

Then again the last election showed that turkeys do vote for Christmas so I guess they thought they could pull iit off again

'I'm not so sure Claig. I'm just thinking of the Engish football fans singing in France...'

Yes, you are right about them, but they are a minority.

'I think the English are human and subject to the same foibles that affect other groups, again'

I think we are different to lots of other people, I think we are for "fair play" and are a very tolerant, polite, queueing up "excuse me, do you mind if" people. We are not a country of extremes. We are very grounded and have a sense of humour that keeps our pompous great and good in check. Look at Gove, his self-deprecating humour sums up how we are.

That is why I think that if our political class try to defy our will as they did with other European countries who voted against their elites in referendums, then our entire Establishment will fall because we will mock them and not accept their rule.

kinkytoes I know MN is not RL bu, if you look back to the 'how are you voting' threads from last year, hardly anyone mentioned a referendum.

I think This government won because the electorate didn't trust Miliband/Balls in the short term. If leave win perhaps it's because the electorate don't trust Merkel and her future equivalents long term.

UK politics has been dominated by people voting against something rather than for something with great enthusiasm for decades.

Where do you think all those fickle swing voters come from?

Disaffection.

Personally, I don't have a particular hatred for Merkel over and above anyone other politican. She didn't handle the migrant crisis well and will be reaping the benefits of that next year and Greece was a fucking disaster. But she is no better and no worse than any of our lot.

Beyond that though my knowledge of German politics is pretty non existent. I doubt most people react to the idea of Merkel based on knowledge though. They are reacting to a belief - a belief created by who? and when? and on what basis? - is the key here.

I have friends in Europe who have very similar values, thoughts and fears to me. There IS a lot of common ground and interest with people in Europe. We don't hear this though, as its from normal people filtered though the press. Governments all over Europe are under the same pressures.

Similar to the class division we are taught about national division rather than any focus being given to common cause.

I don't know. I don't think Europe is the enemy. I don't think its the solution either. And I certainly don't think its perfect. Its riddled with so many wholes and problems its untrue.

I guess don't think trying to unravel that in some kind of cataclysm shock to the UK is the solution.

Power vacuums are not good things.

And yes, the Remain campaign in part are responsible in creating a situation without a plan for exit, precisely to create this power vacuum effect. Whilst Leave are quite happy to have and capitalise on that so they can sell glittering generalities to the disaffected.

Leaving us all with a choice between bollocks and even bigger bollocks.

It sucks.

I think we are different to lots of other people, I think we are for "fair play" and are a very tolerant, polite, queueing up "excuse me, do you mind if" people. We are not a country of extremes. We are very grounded and have a sense of humour that keeps our pompous great and good in check.

Claig, I love and admire the English too, and I am not even English! But the self aggrandising that you just indulged in sort of proves my point. I think you do agree with me though, that the fact that the Leave campaign hasn't been tempted into this shows they are better, more decent people than some remainers have painted them to be.

I think they won it because people wanted a referendum.

Most people didn't give a fuck about a referendum before the last election.

Apart from the Tory party and a few UKIP people (and surprisingly small percentage of them. It was disaffection and a fingers up as much as a hatred for the EU).

People have been forced to give a fuck. That's resented in its own right.

'But the self aggrandising that you just indulged in sort of proves my point.'

I think we have to start standing up for ourselves and take pride in what a great country we really are and what a great people we really are. All this knocking of ourselves, all this scaremongering by the servants of the elite, all this doom-mongering as if we can't have human rights laws or maternity rights or employment rights unless the EU bureaucrats grant them to us is nonsense.

We have done great things, we were one of the first countries to create a Labour movement and challenge the toffs, we did create the NHS and we can do lots more once we get these servants who masquearde as our leaders off our backs.

' the fact that the Leave campaign hasn't been tempted into this shows they are better, more decent people than some remainers have painted them to be'

Yes, I agree.

Excellent Guardian article by a real working class author, not an Owen Jone stype celebrity figure. Well worth reading in detail

"Brexit is the only way the working class can change anything

Working-class people are sick of being called ignorant or racist because of their valid concerns. The EU referendum has given them a chance to have their say

I have lived in working-class communities all my life, and now that I research and write about those communities as a working-class academic, my motivation has always been to make sure that an authentic working-class woman’s voice tells our stories.

Working-class people’s voices are rarely heard outside their communities, and almost never within the political or media sphere. However the EU referendum debate has opened up a Pandora’s box of working-class anger and frustration. It is clear that the Westminster politicos are quite unnerved by this. Even I am surprised by how the referendum has captured the attention and the imagination of the same people that only last year told me they had no interest in the general election “because ‘they’ are all the same”.
...
The women worry for their children and their elderly parents – what happens to them if the rent goes up again? The lack of affordable housing is terrifying.

In the mining towns of Nottinghamshire where I am from, the debate again is about Brexit, and even former striking miners are voting leave. The mining communities are also worried about the lack of secure and paid employment, the loss of the pubs and the grinding poverty that has returned to the north.
...
From my research I would argue that the referendum debate within working-class communities is not about immigration, despite the rhetoric. It is about precarity and fear. As a group of east London women told me: “I’m sick of being called a racist because I worry about my own mum and my own child,” and “I don’t begrudge anyone a roof who needs it but we can’t manage either.”
...
Over the past 30 years there has been a sustained attack on working-class people, their identities, their work and their culture by Westminster politics and the media bubble around it. Consequently they have stopped listening to politicians and to Westminster and they are doing what every politician fears: they are using their own experiences in judging what is working for and against them.

In the last few weeks of the campaign the rhetoric has ramped up and the blame game started. If we leave the EU it will be the fault of the “stupid”, “ignorant”, and “racist” working class. Whenever working-class people have tried to talk about the effects of immigration on their lives, shouting “backward” and “racist” has become a middle-class pastime.

Corbyn must address working-class EU concerns, warns Frank Field

Read more

Working-class people in the UK can see a possibility that something might change for them if they vote to leave the EU. The women in east London and the men in the mining towns all tell me the worst thing is that things stay the same. The referendum has become a way in which they can have their say, and they are saying collectively that their lives have been better than they are today. And they are right. Shouting “racist” and “ignorant” at them louder and louder will not work – they have stopped listening."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/15/brexit-working-class-sick-racist-eu-referendum

We are going to topple the corrupt cess-pool of cronies that govern us and mock us and try to scare us with their "punishment budgets" if we don't do what they want.

Once this referendum is over, the complete cess-pool is over too and a new politics of the people will have to emerge because we will have defied their lies and scares and sent them an "up yours".

I am totally surprised that 'immigration' is being used as a word to lump together so many things. Those supporting remain claim that immigration has done wonders for our progress. This is true. But immigration has been going on for decades! It's the 'free movement' which is causing a problem in the last few years. Those saying 'leave' need to be more articulate in expressing this. Saw a debate on TV involving students who seemed to think that without being in EU they can't study/ work/holiday in Europe! I was seriously questioning their IQ! Am so so surprised about this silly way of thinking.

Presumably the likes of gove and Boris have seen that the tide is turning and decided to back what they believe to be the winners

Just jumping in here as I see someone has referenced the football. The headlines today seem to be football rather than referendum-related. I don’t follow football, but having seen/listened to the news I’m appalled at the naked tribal violence that seems to be going on. I totally support the threat to disqualify teams if their fans cause trouble, but it seems that there’s quite a contingent of so-called fans who actually aren’t really there for the football, they’re there for the fighting.

Strikes me that if England (or even Wales, which is much less likely) gets disqualified, there’ll be an anti-European backlash that could manifest itself in more votes for Leave. Again, I have no idea of what stage the competition will be at on 23rd June, but could the football affect the referendum result?

A poster called WeekendAway posted this on another EU thread (titled: "OBVIOUSLY every sane, thinking person should vote to stay")

It perfectly describes the way I see it as the working class pushing back:

I think a great many disillusioned working class Brexiters don't give a toss about the Remainers warnings of a probable sink back into recession. They've never felt out^ of a recession in the last 10 years, so I think it makes little difference to them. They can only see that a vote to stay in Europe means the status quo on their lives, their employment and housing prospects, their low wages, the scary pace of change in their towns and communities and everything they are dissatisfied with, and the potential for that to all get worse. I don't think they see Brexit as a risk that is likely to affect them negatively because when you think you are at rock bottom any change can only be sidewards or upwards.

I think people who aren't often motivated to vote at all may well be voting in this referendum and voting LEAVE. These are the people that the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's governments patronised, ignored and gaslighted for years while claiming to be all about the common working man. And this is the result.^

'Presumably the likes of gove and Boris have seen that the tide is turning and decided to back what they believe to be the winners'

Yes, I think Gove did it out of principle without thinking about career, but I think Boris did it for his own advancement rather than principle when he understood the public mood.