Please help me understand - what exactly WILL happen if we leave the EU?

[DorynownotFloundering]

Because quite frankly I can't see how all these wonderful ideas Brexit have could be implemented if the govt are not in agreement & no one from the Leave side is in any position of power?

Genuine question.

Chalala - I agree. It's not exclusively an EU problem. In my gloomier moments, I fear that our hundred-year-long experiment with the universal franchise is coming to an end, as the elites draw away from electorates into their 'Sensible People Like Us' ivory towers, while electorates lose interest as they rightly perceive democracy having been hollowed out into a kind of self-congratulatory pantomime.

But to me leaving the EU is one way, in this part of the world, that electorates can challenge that direction of travel - ie away from real democracy, accountable to the people, towards something more elitist, more technocratic and intentionally insulated from public accountability. I have been campaigning for Leave on the streets and the one thing that's struck me has been the level of political engagement it's brought about. I've never seen that happen in a general election. My theory is that most people, rightly, assume that a GE won't actually make that much difference ('they're all the same') whereas this referendum is actually a big, serious question that makes a difference. So people are engaged, people are making up their minds, debates are lively (and usually quite courteous, on the street at least!) and people are taking political life seriously. In treating electorates like adults who are equipped to make that judgement, it drives people to step up and engage. I think we can only halt the decline of democracy by halting the instinct of the political class to keep important decisions from the electorate.

FWIW I also think if we do vote to leave, the UK will need to repatriate so many areas of policymaking that it will force a root-and-branch reboot of our constitution. Having rejected the anti-democratic EU institutions, we could then start to tackle the less democratic aspects of the UK constitutional settlement: our sordidly crony-ist second chamber, the presence of the Lords Spiritual in same (a frequent bone of contention on MN), FPTP voting in a multi-party age, etc etc etc. Having struck one blow for real democracy, Leave would be a radical opportunity to revitalise democracy within the UK and address some of these issues that have been allowed to slide for too long.

Just to counter the idea that all Leavers are racists, right-wingers or 'arseholes', Here's a wonderfully passionate setting-out of the left-wing case for Brexit from Labour MP Kate Hoey.

I have to say that this thread has the most intelligent and respectful debating I've ever seen.

Neither side is saying that there is no downsides to their viewpoint and there's been no name calling or accusations of stupidity.

Thank you so much to all who taking the time to post and being 'grown up' in doing so.

Just a thought. If the EU falls apart within the next 10 years - and there are those suggesting it might - wouldn't we be in a better position to negotiate free trade agreements with the rest of the world now, rather than when all the ex-EU countries have to do this IF it fails?

That's my thought too ajandjjmum.

Plus we are in a great position to foster trade worldwide with the commonwealth countries we haven't screwed up. Plus English being a common second language and the time zone being on our side too.

Of course, there are downsides to leaving and to staying. It's not an easy decision with so many unknowns and variables.

Problem with the Commonwealth is that Canada is about to have free trade agreements with both the US and the EU, and Australia/NZ are now very much turned towards Asia and China, which is much bigger fish than the UK (they've also just signed a free trade deal with the US). Not that they wouldn't trade with the UK, obviously they would, but they already have their own partnerships and trade priorities.

They had to after we turned our backs on them forty odd years ago.

Fix that mistake and things will start to change back to how they used to, and are supposed to be.

Trading with the EU disproportionately favors London and the South East, trading with the rest of the world is something that helps the entire country. This is evidenced by the decline and even ruin of the great trading cities (Glasgow, Liverpool, Bristol etc).

As ever when tories talk about the economy they are talking about their own strongholds in the south east, they couldn't give a damn about places that traditionally vote labour and are happy to see them disadvantaged.

ajandjjmum

It's a good point. When you break it down though, the argument is:

The EU might break down at some point in the future.
When that happens there will probably be a recession and we will have to re-negotiate all of our trading partner contracts anyway.
To avoid that we should leave the EU now.
Which will probably cause a recession and we will have to re-negotiate all of our trading partner contracts.

OP, I haven't RTFT but one of my thoughts is we do not know what will happen whether we stay in the EU or leave. I'm for Brexit and I see it as no more a leap in the dark than voting to stay.

My concerns, should we stay, include the following very real possibilities:

EU Army - the plans have been drawn up by the EU's foreign policy chief. There are so many reasons this terrifies me.

EU tax - The European Parliament today approved tax measures which would lead to the introduction of tax ID numbers for every European citizen. Soon there will be an additional tax removed from our pay packets.

The Euro - Hestletine has said we will definitely join at some point. I don't see how we can function as a union if we do have different currencies and I anticipate (as do many with much greater understanding than me) we could be forced to join the single currency.

The Dublin Regulation states asylum must be claimed in the first safe country. It is going to be abandoned in favour of a "corrective fairness mechanism" allowing the EU to insist each nation takes its share of asylum seekers.

Turkey's accession It is well-documented that Cameron is keen to push this through asap despite his recent denials.

The accession of other countries When they join our subs will undoubtedly rise in order to subsidise the building of their infrastucture. Then there is the increased migration here for our currently healthier economy and labour market.

My point is, we cant be sure, in or out, what the future holds.

I agree that there's always some uncertainty about what the future holds but none of Anna's arguments are in any way likely to happen soon and the UK has a VETO on each of them. So none can happen without the UK joining in.

In the meantime, Brexit will lead to:

• a large fall in sterling, for at least 2 years, but likely much longer. This means that the country is poorer as all imports will cost more. The UK imports most of its basic goods (food, clothing, etc) so the prices of all these items will rise, leading to rising inflation. This is a direct and immediate real terms pay cut for everyone in the UK.

• rising inflation may mean that interest rates have to rise at the same time as the economy contracts. The last time the UK did that - in 1981 and the early 1990s the result was mass unemployment.

• many jobs moved away from the UK. This will be particularly true in financial services where in order to participate in the EU, banks needs to be based in the EU. 12% of UK tax receipts are paid by the City's financial services, so even if you dislike bankers, public spending would collapse without it.

• And not just financial services. Many car manufacturers are based here to serve Europe. The EU has a 10% tariff on car imports. This would devastate care manufacturing here, impacting not just the direct factories but also their suppliers.

• while immigration is likely to fall, its unlikely to be that dramatic. The majority of immigration into the UK (both gross and net) is from outside the EU. Net non-EU immigration is 188k, EU 180k. Even if EU immigration falls, its unlikely to be to zero. let's say it halves - so immigration falls by a quarter - is this really going to dramatically change things?

• Although there may be somewhat reduced competition for low killed jobs, wages are highly unlikely to rise. Firstly, they would need to increase significantly to offset the inflationary impact of lower sterling/import tariffs. Second, the lack pay increase for low-skilled workers is a global phenomenon. The US blue collar workers have not seem pay rise in real terms since the 1970s, despite not being in the EU!

I realise that's all negative, so what's the positive for remaining.

• culturally, we are part of Europe and benefit from being able to travel, work and retire in any EU country.

• Global stability - if the UK left and the EU started to fragment, I would worry for global stability. It also sends such a negative, isolationist, insular image to the world.

• EU regulation. The majority is sensible stuff to protect health, worker's rights, safety. I have travelled round the world and the quality of life in the EU is fantastic. In the US, there's no paid maternity leave and worker's get 10 days paid leave a year which they're afraid to take. In a lot of Asia, working conditions are terrible and air pollution is awful. The EU does a lot to safeguard things such as maternity rights which hugely benefit my working life.

World influence - we are better together.

none of Anna's arguments are in any way likely to happen soon Are you serious?

We dont know when my concerns will become actual facts but they will and, in terms of the EU tax and EU army, very quickly. Accession of the candidate countries is thought to be no sooner than 2020 - that's not far away when seen from the perspective of a parent.

Though I didn't mention immigration in my post, based on current levels, our population is going to pass 80 million within 25 years. That's hell of a lot of roads, school, houses and hospitals we will need when my children are young adults. I guess they will be paying.

With worker's rights, I suggest you do more research. For instance:

Maternity pay - no EU minimum but in UK 90% for 6 weeks and £140 for 33 weeks.

Maternity leave - in EU 14 weeks, in UK 52 weeks.

We had plenty of rights before the EU, they didnt invent them.

I liked Boris' point that the risks of continuing in the EU are well known and very real. Indeed these are stated clearly by the unelected leaders of the EU.

The other side of the coin is the opportunities of Brexit.

An EU army could be formed on the 24th by merely a stroke of the President's pen for instance..

But what Boris is conveniently ignoring is the known risks of Brexit, which are already becoming manifest in the shaky state of the pound. The Leave campaign really suffers from terminal vagueness; essentially they keep saying "It'll be fine"" without offering anything approaching evidence of that fact. The very fact that they are relying on propagating so many demonstrable myths about staying in proves how frightened they are of inconvenient little things like facts.

What will certainly be fine is that we'll be distanced from the collapse of the Euro and all that entails. Look at Greece - Italy - Portugal - Spain - all of them shackled into what they were led to believe was a golden future, but has turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. The further the UK is from the Eurozone when that collapse inevitably happens, the better.

Not mine, but a fair summary of the consequences of a leave vote:

1. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister - our very own, better-educated, answer to Donald Trump!
2. Scotland leaving the United Kingdom in order to remain in the EU.
3. A three-year recession in the UK.
4. Uncontained delight for Donald Trump, Rupert Murdoch, Kim Jong-un, ISIS, the Taliban, and all other enemies of democracy.
5. A huge setback for the West as whole, and for its slow progress towards peace and stability since 1945.
6. A collapse in the pound: which will mean no more European holidays for most British people, and high inflation at home.
7. All those retired British people in Spain being sent home (or being forced home by the weak pound and lack of access to healthcare), where they will be a drain on the UK health care system instead of the Spanish one.
8. London's Polish builders all going to Germany (see point 6), and leaving us to contend with British builders.
9. No change in net immigration figures: since, in order to gain access to the EU single market, neighbouring nations also have to accept free movement of labour. There's no chance of the UK being granted an exception.

10. The final collapse of British farming, as EU subsidies are withdrawn, and promises to replace them from Westminster are not honoured.

But I must say I would rather enjoy the Mail and Express readers frothing at the mouth when they discover they have to join the end of the very long, slow non-EU queue whenever they go to EU countries.

London's Polish builders all going to Germany (see point 6), and leaving us to contend with British builders.

Casual racism against your own people: perfect electoral strategy. Why not go and doorstep a few working class areas and say "I'd rather we stayed in, because you lot are lazy, workshy and stupid, and I want you unemployed and the jobs done by Poles. Can I count on your vote?"

The final collapse of British farming, as EU subsidies are withdrawn

Do you even think about this stuff? Since you're also claiming the pound would collapse and we would not have access to markets, are you suggesting that the entire UK population will starve to death, unable to import food and standing around watching empty fields and thinking "if only there were more subsidy?"

Uncontained delight for Donald Trump, Rupert Murdoch, Kim Jong-un, ISIS, the Taliban, and all other enemies of democracy.

You forgot to include the European Parliament and all their lackeys in your list of the enemies of democracy.

Scotland leaving the United Kingdom in order to remain in the EU.

Just like that! It'll be easy! No need to discuss the logistics of a second referendum (would the SNP ask for it? Would Westminster grant it? Would it be winnable?) No need to discuss the problems of Scottish accession (what currency would they be planning to use, again? How would they meet their Schengen obligations while remaining in an ex-UK CTA? Remember, Ireland has a Schengen opt-out for this precise reason). It'll all be easy.

A huge setback for the West as whole, and for its slow progress towards peace and stability since 1945.

Stop being over-dramatic. There hasn't been a war, or anything remotely close to a war, in the west since 1945. There is no "slow progress": it has had peace since 1945. The guarantor of that is NATO, backed by the UK and the USA's armies and ultimately nuclear weapons (and to an extent France's, but they aren't under NATO command and control). Aside from a few elderly Trots, no-one is proposing UK withdrawal from NATO.

what arguments do you use on the doorsteps of working-class areas, Bolograph? (assuming you're campaigning for this, I may have misunderstood)

I think it's a huge problem that Labour doesn't have a clear message for their voters here. As you were saying earlier, arguing "well just get over your immigration concerns because we promise you, you're actually better off this way" just doesn't work.

(and yes, I do think the grassroots Leave vote is overwhelmingly about immigration and its perceived consequences)

I just heard Milliband on the radio, and that was essentially his argument. He said "we're not dismissing your concerns, but leaving the EU is too high an economic price to pay to limit immigration". Not wrong per se, but not exactly inspiring... and the truth is that this argument does dismiss immigration concerns, by reshaping them in concerns about public services and saying it's all the Tories' fault.

I'm getting genuinely concerned that the majority of people will now be entirely fed up with being given "ifs" and "buts" and "it's complicated", and will just dig their heels in on the topic of immigration.

I don't know that there is a short-term answer, because it took years and years to get to this point.

Everything you say is true, Cha.

what arguments do you use on the doorsteps of working-class areas, Bolograph?

None that work. Which is grim. Leave want to roll back workers rights? I'm on zero-hours / I don't have a job, what fucking rights do you think I have? Leave will roll back the NHS? I can't get a GP appointment anyway, mutatis mutandis for other services. All of it comes back, in the eyes of historic Labour voters,, to immigration: employers can treat us like shit as there's always a Pole, services are over-stretched. It's impossible to argue with that, because it's from their perspective true.

We in Labour fucked up, 2000-2010, and made this inevitable. The problem isn't immigration at a national level, but you have to be an idiot who believes in fairies to argue a problem isn't immigration at a local level. There is no such thing as national politics, local issues almost always prevail, and high levels of immigration into already deprived areas have made the lives of people, and their children, demonstrably worse. There is no answer, because we have no answer.

As Burnham says, "Too much Hampstead, not enough Hull". Well you were a fucking senior member of the party, Andy, so with your alleged great political skill are you saying you couldn't see this coming at any point in the last fifteen years? Muppet.

He said "we're not dismissing your concerns

He precisely is dismissing their concerns. "Can't get a job? Zero hours? Tough shit: my au pair is cheap and the patisserie at my local baker is to die for".

I'm getting genuinely concerned that the majority of people will now be entirely fed up with being given "ifs" and "buts" and "it's complicated", and will just dig their heels in on the topic of immigration.

Exactly. And we in the Remain camp will deserve if it it happened, because we have played a band hand badly. We have learnt nothing, nothing, nothing, from the AV referendum.

paperbackrioter.wordpress.com/2011/05/10/the-epic-av-referendum-post-mortem-blog-evil-triumphs-when-the-good-are-led-by-incompetent-halfwits/

www.liberal-vision.org/2011/05/08/the-humiliation-of-the-yes-campaign/

If there was one thing that nearly tipped me to voting NO (and I didn’t), it was the direct mail leaflet with the postal vote form. From recollection, the front page featured Joanna Lumley, Eddie Izzard, Tony Robinson, Colin Firth, Stephen Fry and other such celebrities. I may as well have been sent a leaflet saying “If you love the Guardian Arts supplement, then vote YES.” It showed a completely pitiful understanding of what most people – as opposed to most electoral reform professionals – care about.

Well, this is grim, Bolograph.

I read the links. It's ringing many warning bells.

Painful for me to admit, because of course I am a well-meaning Guardian reader.

The German finance minister has ruled out Britain remaining in the single market if we leave. Just thought I would mention that as lots of people seem to be saying we could stay in the EEA.

Yes I thought that was very interesting

I do wonder how much of it is political posturing though, and I don't quite understand his reasoning. Why is the EEA ok for other countries but not for Britain? Surely from a continental point of view it would be in everyone's interest? I'm rather puzzled.

Why is that up to the German finance minister?