To move schools on a hunch in year 4

[Boilingfrogatprimaryschool]

Name changed.
Sorry for long post, don't want to drip feed. Aware this feels like a real 1% issue as I know there will be people on here who would love either of these schools.

DC (yr3) attends outstanding 1 form primary minutes walk from home. Lovely kind school but suffers yearly pupil loss. There is another outstanding 2 form primary a few miles away. Not offered a place yet but is expected at the end of year. Secondary choice won't be affected.

Current school loses several children every year. At the end of this year the class will have 26 children (3 lovely children are confirmed as leaving, it is possible there are more).

Since year 1 leavers places are taken by children pushed from other schools, either for SEN, behavioural issues or both. The class then takes at least a term and a half to adjust as it is very disruptive having children who take up so much teaching time. This year was particularly challenging.

There will come a point when the school budget does not cover increasing costs, due to loss of pupils. ECTs never used to be hired to replace experienced teachers, now they are the norm. TAs being shared across year group, which given the high SEN isn't great (they used to support SEN really well with extra TAs per class).

I am worried this school may soon be unviable and have to merge with another not so good school and this could easily come before year 6.

Larger school is currently full and filled last years empty spaces easily with private school leavers.

It was originally my top choice for reception. We only went with current school as DC attended nursery there and it was the Covid years so staying close to home seemed sensible. Nursery and Reception were exceptional. Since year 1, not so impressive.

One of DCs BFFs is leaving this year and a third of children have left since nursery. The new children joining were lovely when they were little-uns in EYF but as we move to higher years the new children seem to have significant issues.

I wanted to move DC end of year 1 but DH said I was silly and to give it more time. Definitely by the end of year 2 it felt like DC had outgrown the school (site is very small with limited area for play/sports). I should have moved DC then, but we are where we are.

DC is happy enough (some grumbles) at current school.

Should I move to DC on a hunch that things are probably going to go downhill? I think I feel very disloyal to a school with a big heart and don't want to be another reason it struggles but I can't help worrying its getting worse and feel that my DC would be better served at the other school. Grass isn't always greener though should I just leave her where she is happy and doesn't know any better?

Anyone had a similar dilemma?

You should retitle your post as your reasoning is not merely a "hunch." You've gathered facts and synthesized a real analysis of those facts for a predictive outcome.

Will what you fear happen? You do not know. However, you have shown that there is a higher likelihood that the school is in decline or might be forced to join with another given the current trend than the school that was originally your first choice.

If switching schools does not introduce a level of complexity or negatives that outweigh the risk you have identified, I think you are smart to do so, as by the time it is obvious that your predictive reasoning was correct, everyone else will be doing what you are thinking of doing, and there may be no spots left.

I'll be honest, that doesn't sound like a particularly high turnover. My DD's class used to turnover about 20% of students in a year but it was London so people were always coming and going from overseas.

You need to do what's right for your child but I'd be doing more due diligence on both schools. You don't actually know what % of children have SEN and/or other issues or what level of support the school is getting to assist? Have you been in to talk about your concerns if this year has been particularly difficult?

I'd try to get your hunch down on paper as a list of benefits/disadvantages of moving and see what that looks like.

If DC are happy and settled and doing well there is no guarantee that the grass is greener. You talk about challenges of children with some SEN but given the under-resourcing for individual support in nearly all schools there's no guarantee that will be different elsewhere. It also sounds as if it's not a certainty that you'll get a place.

However as DC get into KS2 there's something to be said for a bigger year group and potentially more opportunities for sports, choirs, music/drama, bigger friendship groups etc. What is it specifically you think your DC will get from moving? And is it a risk you're prepared to take if they don't get on any better in the new school?

I think if she is happy and it is minute’s walk from your house I would probably leave her. Is she progressing academically? Do you just go straight through to secondary with no eg grammar testing? If there are no tests and she does well in her SATs and reads a lot she will be fine. The LA have to find her a school place even if her school were to close.
So I think it boils down to her progress really. I would not personally move a child based on a hunch that a school may close at some indefinite point in the future, especially if she is happy and progressing. Some kids progress really well despite a school not being the best or them not getting the most attention because the progress is more driven by their happiness and they are quite good at pushing themselves and learning.

Where are the leavers going? To the bigger school locally (i.e. she will know friends there) or moving further away?

The school closing isn't actually something I'm really that worried about long term @anitarielleliphe honestly I would home school for a bit if I needed to do so. It is the slow decline of fewer pupils overall and the growing percentage with issues. Fewer friends with a shared interests.

It is a London school @TreadSoftlyOnMyDreams but in the past the turnover was like for like. Now no-one is moving into the area so other schools are off loading their problem children. I do know the SEN for both but it's not actually the SEN that is the issue (or it wasn't when they could fund it properly, which I'm not sure they can now) it's the unfunded behavioural issues and all the children who were at a similar educational level leaving.

When I think back to EYF they were a lovely group. Even then they were competitive with each other and encouraged each other to be better. The teaching was definitely about excelling those who were able. Everyone of them will have left by the end of this year. It feels like a different school.

A small number have gone private @BendingSpoons, some out of London and most back to EU. But DC is in many, many local clubs and we can't walk down the main street without a child saying 'Hello' DC seems to know everyone. So of all the things I worry about, finding new friends isn't one of them.

DC @RomainingCalm does all the things you have mentioned outside of school and could benefit from having friends at school that also do some of it. Finding friends they have a common interest with - rather than just happen to sit next to everyday. They just aren't particularly motivated anymore.

@Araminta1003 DC has progressed exceptionally but that is down to the fantastic EYF teaching giving the class a head start and so much being available locally (with us spending a considerable sum on ensuring all the bases are ticked). In these external classes (sports clubs, languages, orchestras and drama) I can see the motivation to be best they can and you can see the joy in being with others who enjoy what you do.

DC excels easily in everything except maths and sport. In sport the effort is there because the motivation is there, so the outcome is still very good. Not so in maths. It doesn't come as easily yet they insist on doing it at the same high speed and then make mistakes. What concerns me is they don't care as they are still better than most of the class. The school don't do anything about it as they are only concerned with the bottom half of the class (I understand that, I really do). It is this mindset I want to break as quickly as possible. It is this lack of others to challenge and self motivate that makes me want to try a larger school. DC always wants to be one of the best, now they think they already are so can't be bothered. I could hire a tutor the maths, just to pull up the average and slow them down in their workings, but at this age I'd rather focus on things they want to do and think this could cause tensions.

If the distance doesn’t cause too much stress (a short walk vs commuting several miles is a big difference!), I’d move them given all you’ve said. If it doesn’t work out you can always move them back.

That would most likely be possible @SneakyScarves . I do just worry I'd be moving them for no real gain. That I'm expecting too much and at this age it doesn't really matter that much.

I wondered if anyone had moved children, not because the school is bad, but because all but 1 of the original friendship group have left now and it might be better just to move elsewhere, with a bigger intake, rather than stay and see who arrives next year (or who doesn't they may not even get anyone).

I keep being told moving a child who is settled is the worst thing you can do.

Our DD started a new school in Y4 this year. She moved from a nice one form entry where she was happy to a fabulous two form entry that was our first choice for Reception. We had been given an offer in Y1 which we declined at the time (DD was unsettled after the second lockdown so we didn't want to move her). DH and I agreed that if she was devastated at the thought of a move at the end of Y3 we wouldn't do it but she was keen (we moved her for a significantly broader non-academic offering, eg better music, art, extracurricular, co-curricular). The year has been brilliant and she's made new friends and loves the school. Still sees friends from her old school occasionally. We're really glad she moved.

@Boilingfrogatprimaryschool ”DC excels easily in everything except maths and sport.”
To be honest, your DD will do well in pretty much any school from your description. She will likely do very well if you move her or keep her where she is as well. From my experience with 4 DC they tend to have a natural equilibrium point and even if they slack off here and there in a subject or two, they catch up later on and what happens in primary does not really matter, as long as they thrive socially that is and she has loads of hobbies etc. However, if you are happy to take the longer commute upon yourselves with no real impact on your family and working patterns etc, then she will likely do very well in the new school.
As for the Maths, were you to keep her where she is, a little every day goes a long way, just like with reading. You do not need a formal tutor. Just the motivation to do it with her regularly in bite sizes.

I'd 100% move them.

That's very reassuming to hear. Thank you.

Yes @Araminta1003 I fear I am trying too hard to make her primary school years 'wonderful', because I think they should be. Although they already beat mine 100%! Perhaps letting them get on with it might be best (although I do worry they will have a big shock in senior school, coming from such a little pond).

DH spoke with a senior maths teacher and they suggested we play a board game, puzzles and focus on real world examples, to wire the brain towards seeing pattens and problem solving, while keeping well away from any formal maths. As you say... little and often

I would move if you could. We had the same scenario, one form school and I think it was in Y4 when they had 4 new kids who all had their issues and it was a really disruptive year. School was lovely and great teachers but as a 1 form entry, in the end it felt a bit small. We didn't change but if I had my options again I wouldn't have chosen a one form school. By Y6 both mine were so so ready to leave and even if they went to secondary with a few primary 'friends' they have not kept any primary friendships to this day.

Children move schools all the time, in our case it was a house move that meant I moved dd in year 4. She’s autistic so our experience isn’t relevant but I can say schools are used to it

This. That is my fear (which has played out to some extent already). In larger schools they can mix the classes up so break up cliques and give children a breather from each other, if necessary. It's hard going in a 1 form school!