Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 6

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuation of previous threads to discuss VAT on independent school fees.

@strawberrybubblegum ,

‘Well they didn't bother to do even the most basic analysis. This is what happens when you just guess: based on a qualitative gut-feel of how you would likethe world to work.’

Did they get it ‘so’ wrong? The misuse of statistics by the lobby group is pretty bad here, especially when they are actually complaining about numerical analysis.

Private school numbers dropped 1.9%, but 0.6% of this is explained by demographics. And then we look at the standard deviation of these numbers and it lies well within 1.3%.

So, if this were an A level Physics question, the correct conclusion would be that this data set lies within the expected range and certainly the 95% centile, so no conclusions can be drawn.

Not really, Labour said the expectation was 3000 less in 2024/2025 - the actual number is 11,000. As at January 1, when the tax kicked in. That is getting it wrong by hundreds of per cent!!

If the ISC is in touch with these schools and they report less kids for September, this Government should perhaps listen now?
Of course, if the aim is destruction as much as possible, there will continue to be much gaslighting from the usual suspects.
If you have a solipsistic world view you simply cannot see beyond the end of your nose.

@Newbutoldfather why did Labour put forward the 3000 figure?

Private schools can incredibly easily cut costs by more than 20% without in any way hitting the core educational offering.

This is rubbish - anyone who has been running an educational business or a charity over the last few years knows full well that the vast majority of expense increases are in staff salaries (and energy costs to some extent) which can’t be easily cut - and certainly not by 20% - unless you make a lot of staff redundant.

So “cutting costs” in the sector is actually reducing labour - not exactly great economic news, since these are ordinary people you’re cutting the jobs of - teachers, TAs, maintenance and admin staff. It’s these people who will be affected: not the super rich! The whole VAT plan is batshit economics, because any retrenchment falls directly on the less wealthy and not the wealthy at all.

@Newbutoldfather Most of the recent stability in pupil numbers has disguised a huge demographic shift in fee payers from middle class mostly English to the wealthy and foreign students.

I think this is very true.

Both my parents were privately educated - my father's family had been for hundreds of years... was just the way things were. My mother's parents were aspirational working class and incredibly proud they could send their children private.

I was at private prep and then state grammar, but the vast majority of my parent's peer group never even bothered to look at state schools... GPs, small town hospital consultants, country lawyers, farmers etc.

Nowadays they are all sending their children State Plus or just having the 1 kid.

When I look at DD's friends and their parents at her comprehensive, 40 years ago, most of us would have been automatically going for private schools. Now they're not even on the radar - unless there is SEN and then it's a massive stretch.

What classifies as “foreign student?” @Newbutoldfather ? There are not many boarding places. Or do you mean tax payers settled and working in England, paying taxes and school fees, but born abroad, with or without dual nationality?

Some numbers are more equal than others

It really is all rather Animal Farm and never wrestle with pigs, because you both get dirty.

I am still living in hope though that Keir Starmer will wake up to the fact that othering pretty much everyone and their Granny against each other, stoking further division is full on nihilistic and destructive. And what we urgently need is social cohesion.
Until that point I will hold onto my RC Irish fantasy, according to @Newbutoldfather and I will continue to be embarrassed about being British. Even if that offends some.
I do not want to idealise the Blair years because obviously it came with prosperity but in those days diversity, Education and human rights were all celebrated and nobody was insanely jealous of someone else doing well.

So true. Labour are incredibly depressing today under Starmer in comparison.

@Araminta1003 ,

‘Not really, Labour said the expectation was 3000 less in 2024/2025 - the actual number is 11,000. As at January 1, when the tax kicked in. That is getting it wrong by hundreds of per cent!!’

Really?!

If non-farm payrolls continue at the current rate, for no statistical change we would expect the number at 200,000 +_20,000.

An economist comes out with an estimate of, just for example, 203,000 and the outturn is, just for example 211,000.

a/ Is his estimate out by 267% or about 4%?

b/ can we say that we are seeing a statistically significant above trend growth?

I detest this term ‘state plus’

Parents are meant to be in involved in their children’s education and give them an upbringing including opportunities outside school hours in as much as they can afford. It’s called being a decent parent.

It is very new (and not especially healthy) manifestation of private schools that they are a one stop shop for education plus parenting.

If you merely send your child to school and take no interest in them outside school hours, it is neglectful parenting or state minus if you prefer.

Private doesn't mean this. There's not much in it in some cases beyond stumping up for clubs outside school instead.

Do you know where Labour got the 3000 figure from? They seem to be accusing others of getting things wrong, why are they this hypocritical is another key question.

@nyancatdays ,

‘This is rubbish - anyone who has been running an educational business or a charity over the last few years knows full well that the vast majority of expense increases are in staff salaries (and energy costs to some extent) which can’t be easily cut - and certainly not by 20% - unless you make a lot of staff redundant.’

I was a school governor (state school) on the finance committee inter alia, so I know exactly how to budget a school on £7,800 per annum!

Again, this increase in staff salaries is a fantasy. Have you looked at private school salaries vs inflation? They are down since 2008. Maybe you should see if you can find some of these teachers who have enjoyed inflation busting pay rises. Sadly neither I nor my teacher friends know any.

Now, what is true is that the pyramid has become fatter, with more and better paid SLT (all called director these days for some reason), a large marketing department (this is MAD as it is just, across the sector, a total waste of fee payers’ money) and an increase in support staff.

The idea that it is a struggle to budget a school on £8,000 a term is ridiculous. Some of the ‘nice’ things may need to be cut, but it is a rational choice for some schools.

@EasternStandard ,

‘Do you know where Labour got the 3000 figure from?’

No idea, I imagine a researcher gave them a massive range and they plucked a low ball figure out of the air.

Most politicians (like most people) are depressingly bad at understanding numbers; look at BJ trying to explain an exponential graph!

We desperately need more STEM educated politicians, especially at senior level (Thatcher and Merkel were two who understood numbers, and it showed) and fewer PPE graduates who can write beautiful prose with very little behind it.

This glorification of STEM is getting a bit much now @Newbutoldfather
Perhaps politicians should stop studying PPE and do Physics & Philosophy at Oxford instead? Would that make you happy?

It's not glorification, it's common sense. He's right that eloquent rhetoric is only part of the picture. It may help a lot to get you elected but a deep understanding of the numbers and dexterity with complexity help a lot when you have to actually run the country.

I think 3000 came from Luke S's IFS report. They took the lower number and ignored his caveats of basically having no appropriate behaviour comparisons and his left leaning bias.

Just going to pop in on this thread. Have read lots but find it all really divisive and unpleasant at times so tending to stay away. BUT I think what all the stats are missing and of course there will be no analysis of is that anyone who had any sort of spare cash pre paid termly fees before July so no vat revenue coming from them. Their invoices have been worded very carefully. Its only those (like me) who were already really stretched and were unable to prepay who will be affected and we will move at next possible, least detrimental opportunity. Of our close friends (6 families) 4 have prepaid. So if people think they're getting a tax take from the wealthy they are wrong.

I’m still against education tax, but after reading @KendricksGin and @Newbutoldfather comments, I’m starting to totally get the irritation and the desire for a spite tax to bring family wealth types back to earth.

There was a lot of support for that report on these threads.

Interesting to see how it’s played out with the figures.

@FairMindedMaiden - so just the family wealth types for you, not the “foreign students?”

Incidentally, Elon Musk did Physics as his bachelor major. Do you honestly think he would do a better job @Newbutoldfather as a leader. He can’t actually become US president because he is not a natural born US citizen. I am sure plenty of Americans are grateful for that.

Which comments would those be? FWIW I am a 'family wealth' type. Your anger may be affecting your judgement.

FWIW I am a 'family wealth' type.

Yes, It’s pretty obvious. No shame in that, but maybe understand that for those parents paying for PS out of our taxed salary income and not a family office that 20% can be the margin between affording it or not.

Of course I understand that. I just don't believe everyone is going to rush abroad because of VAT, if that's what you are taking exception at.

As a PP said, steep fee increases are nothing new and people have been dropping out of paying for private schooling for years. You could say that any price hike of the many could have tipped someone into no longer being able to afford private school. The new part is that it is government intervention behind this one rather than individual schools hiking up fees.